Best Week 8 NFL Eliminator picks

Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules here.


To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.


This week, six teams are at least 75 percent favorites to win, according to FPI -- the most such teams in any week all season. As a result, there are plenty of options. The only one of those teams that did not make the list below was the Kansas City Chiefs. While the Chiefs are 10-point favorites in Vegas, with a 78 percent chance to win according to FPI, it's smart to save them for one of the next two weeks. Currently, FPI projects the Chiefs as the biggest favorite of the week against both the Browns and the Cardinals.
Top Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
The Steelers are the second-biggest FPI favorites of any game so far this season at 88 percent. The Steelers are coming off a bye week, while the Browns are coming off their fourth overtime game of the season. The Steelers have dominated the Browns recently, going 32-4-1 in the last 37 meetings, including a win in each of the last 14 meetings in Pittsburgh. While the Browns were able to tie the Steelers in Week 1, it's hard to think they will get their first win in Pittsburgh since 2003. Looking ahead, there is no game over the rest of the season where FPI views the Steelers as one of the three biggest favorites of any given week. All of that adds up to the Steelers being a relatively safe pick, albeit a chalky one.


Line: Steelers -8.5
FPI chance to win: 88 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 27 percent selected
Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins
Historically, this is a perfect spot to take the Texans on Thursday night. Home favorites in Thursday games are 18-2 in the last 20 games straight up, and 15-4-1 against the spread in that span. Home Thursday night favorites of at least seven points in non-divisional games have won 18 straight, going 13-4-1 ATS. The Dolphins are beat up and still without quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and FPI favors the Texans by 9.2 points -- even more than the point spread.


Line: Texans -7.5
FPI chance to win: 75 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 8 percent selected
Others to Consider

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
This is the most lopsided point spread of the week by Vegas odds. Similar to Steelers-Browns, this has been an extremely one-sided series recently. Tom Brady is 28-3 in his career against the Bills, and this may be one of the worst Bills teams he's faced in his career. FPI views Buffalo as the second-worst team in the NFL, while the Patriots are fourth-best. Looking ahead, the Patriots will be one of the top two favorites two more times this season -- in Weeks 14 and 16 -- so there will be other chances to use them, but the Patriots are a fine pick this week.


Line: Patriots -14
FPI chance to win: 83 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 17 percent selected
Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
The Jets have a laundry list of injuries on both sides of the ball, making this a difficult spot for rookie Sam Darnold to go on the road and get a win. The Bears have the sixth-most efficient defense this season, and Mitchell Trubisky is red hot lately. He has an 87 Total QBR in his last three games after posting a 37 QBR in his first three games. FPI views this as the Bears' best chance to win any game this season, though they will be usable next week in Buffalo.


Line: Bears -7
FPI chance to win: 76 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 15 percent selected
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Even though Aaron Rodgers is on the other sideline, the Rams are still the third-biggest favorites this week, according to both the Vegas odds and FPI. There is merit in taking them. They are almost certainly going to be a unique pick, as the early returns have them at one percent selected, and the next time the Rams will be this big of an FPI favorite is in Weeks 15-17. By that point, the Rams may have locked up the NFC. Because of that, they aren't a team worth saving for later -- but the presence of Rodgers prevents this from being a higher confidence pick.


Line: Rams -9.5
FPI chance to win: 80 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 1 percent selected