As I’ve said before, ATS Wins and Losses are based on Vegas Insider’s closing lines. The week’s “final” MOV projections do not change; however, depending on line changes, the model can and does, occasionally flip the pick. Last Sunday is an example. For the DAL @ WSH game, the final MOV projection was Dallas by 1.2, and while the line was Pick’em, the model’s pick was obviously Dallas; however, the closing line was Dallas -1.5, which flipped the model’s pick to Washington – a win, thanks to the zebras. I use the closing line because I have to use something to grade the model’s performance, and VI’s closing lines are online and public. Although this past week the model benefitted from a pick flip, it has been the other way for most of the season thus far.
Anyway, going 8-6 ATS this past week brings the model’s record from Week 5 (when the data was no longer poisoned by old numbers) to 46.5%, and I’m hoping Week 8 gets the Limper over the hump.
GLTA
PS. My super-duper Over/Under picks last week were a perfecto 5-0!!! This, however, is a case of ‘I’ve-been-to-this-movie-before’, where in the past a big flop always seems to happen. That said, I have run the OUs since Week 5 and the model has gone 13-2 thus far, so my fingers are crossed for a continuation.
Week 8 OU picks will post either Thursday or Saturday.
Judging the accuracy of the model in predicting a game total means to determine the difference between the projected totals and the actual total scores of as many games that have been played; and, for the entire season thus far, the average delta for my model has been 9.4 points. That sounds like a lot; however, compared against the Vegas line – itself a projection - and this season’s games, it’s not that bad, as Vegas books have been 10.3 points off for the season. Moreover, the model’s delta is now down to 6.8 points as of Week 5, when only current data began to be used, while Vegas has been off by 9.7, which is not much of an improvement.
Now, as I’ve said, ‘I’ve been to this movie before’. I’ve never had a statistical model for NFL game totals that was consistently accurate over the long haul; and, despite its good start, it’s only prudent to point out that game totals are far more difficult to project than game spreads, and the Limper hasn’t, thus far, been exactly lights-out against the spread. Nevertheless, I’ve been putting my shekels down on my totals projections since week 5 and I’ve turned my season around; so, until that delta starts to climb, I’ll keep posting O/U picks.
Naturally, the posted deltas, lines and picks, are all based on the most current data available; so, beware of major player injuries, sudden blizzards, and wild line movements – because things can change, and they usually do.
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The Limper NFL – 2018 – Week 8
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