Best bets on Week 5 NFL games

Warren Sapp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


It's Week 5 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Baltimore

Sharp: It will be exciting to see Baker Mayfield in his first divisional start, but this game will be a challenge. The Ravens have the No. 5 pass defense in the league and that was without CB Jimmy Smith, who is done serving his four-game suspension. The one thing Mayfield has going for him is that the Baltimore pass rush is not strong, and that should help the Browns, who own the NFL's fifth-worst pass protection unit.


So far this season, the Browns defense has faced a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses, including the Saints, Steelers and Raiders. The Ravens offense actually ranks as the No. 9 passing offense, and is more than capable of finding success against a Cleveland secondary, which will be missing Terrance Mitchell. This game comes down to red zone performance for me: Baltimore is No. 4 both offensively and defensively, while Cleveland is No. 15 offensively and 25 defensively.


Pick: Pass


Johnson: The Raiders wound up coming from behind late to beat the Browns this past week, but they were fortunate to even get the football back down eight points, thanks to a curious reversal on a spot of the ball call that would have otherwise ended the game. Baker Mayfield played well for the most part throwing for 291 yards with two touchdowns and one interception (not including the interception on a Hail Mary on the final play in regulation). Mayfield did, however, fumble the ball on two occasions and in one crucial spot in the fourth quarter on a poor snap.


It required all of these Cleveland mishaps for the Raiders to even have a chance at tying and force an overtime. I think the Browns were the better team. I still like Mayfield and especially short-term with less film for opponents to prepare. My raw number is Browns +2.63, so if this number were to climb to +3.5 I will likely consider backing Cleveland. Baltimore is coming off of a big division win against its rival in Pittsburgh and now will be traveling again, so the spot certainly doesn't hurt either.


Pick: Pass


Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Jacksonville

Sharp: The key to passing against the Jaguars is to avoid using 11 personnel (3 WRs) and instead use 12 or 21 (2 WRs with an extra TE or RB). Last year, the Jacksonville pass defense was No. 1 defending 3-plus WR sets but 28th defending 1-2 WR sets. Through four games in 2018, the Jags are allowing a 35 percent success rate to three-WR sets in 2018 and a 63 percent success rate to 12 personnel. The Chiefs must use their sub packages to attack this very good Jaguars defense, which has played the second-easiest schedule of offenses so far this year (Jets, Titans, Giants and Patriots).


On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense is the second worst in the NFL, and will be a welcome sight for a Jacksonville offense that has had to tangle with the Jets and Titans defenses the past two weeks. Without Leonard Fournette, the offense will need Blake Bortles to play quality, mistake-free football.


Lean: Jaguars +3


Johnson: It's easy to look at the fact we made money in Week 4 betting on the Jaguars and against the Chiefs. Surely, we will look to bet on the Jaguars again in Week 5 then, right?


Consider this: Would you bet Jacksonville -21 in Kansas City? What about -14? Or -3? The deciding factor in placing a wager should ultimately depend on the number and price you are being offered. My raw projection has this Kansas City -2.13, and doesn't account for the Sammy Watkins injury or factor in the specific matchup and Jaguars rostering the league's best pass defense the past two seasons.


While the Chiefs were able to rush the ball more efficiently Monday night against the Broncos, they've been led by their passing attack and Patrick Mahomes. Their biggest test to this point will be duplicating similar efficiency through the air against Jacksonville.


The market has been slightly higher on the Chiefs than my personal projections the past couple of weeks, so I was hoping that we would get a shot at backing the Jaguars at +3.5 or better. It opened at +3 however, and has actually been bet down to +2.5 since at a few spots (or at least requiring to pay extra juice on the +3). It is unlikely we will see a +3.5 at this point, so I won't be forcing anything.


Pick: Pass


Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills(-5.5)

Total: 39
PickCenter public consensus pick: 70 percent picked Tennessee

Sharp: The Titans' incredible come-from-behind win over the Eagles last week was remarkable and featured a fourth quarter in which Marcus Mariota was 10-for-10 with 9.1 yards per attempt and a 70 percent success rate. After playing three straight top-10 run defenses in consecutive weeks, Tennessee's run game could be more productive against the Bills run defense.


Buffalo needs to find a way to protect Josh Allen, as it ranks dead last in pass protection efficiency. After facing below-average pass rush units the first three weeks, the Bills faced a top-10 pass rush in the Packers last week, and Allen was sacked seven times. The Titans are another team with a top-10 pass rush.


Pick: Pass


Johnson: I think it's time to remind everyone that first-year Titans offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur was in Los Angeles last year working with Sean McVay. Before working with the Rams, LaFleur was working under Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. Both McVay and Shanahan are two of the youngest and brightest minds we have in football today. Quantifying the value a change at coordinator or coach brings to a particular team is tough to do. We don't want to overreact to a limited sample of data, but at the same time, if we aren't adjusting, then we will get left in the dust when teams like the Eagles wind up winning the Super Bowl with Nick Foles at quarterback.


The Rams and Chiefs this season are the obvious comparisons to Philadelphia last year. The Titans are the under-the-radar comparison -- and they haven't even played that well yet offensively.


Marcus Mariota was injured already early in the season and missed time in three games. It is tough to get into any kind of rhythm when the quarterbacks are switching in and out, let alone in a brand new offense.


The Titans defense has been incredible and the main reason they have won three straight games. I just think there is only upside for Tennessee at this point as the offense continues to improve with LaFleur calling the plays and Mariota looking healthy again after their upset win over the Eagles this past Sunday. I was greedy waiting for a Titans -3 to show this week, but Tennessee was popped pretty good on Thursday and is now sitting -4.5 or -5 everywhere. I agree with the move, but my buy point was -3.


I wouldn't go out of your way to be looking for spots to fade the Titans this season, and certainly not when it requires putting money on the Buffalo Bills.


Pick: Pass


New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-6)

Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Carolina

Sharp: Carolina is the best run unit in the NFL, averaging 5.8 yards per carry with a 59 percent success rate on the ground. And now it gets to face the Giants' No. 29 run defense. New York's two best games came against subpar run offenses (Jaguars and Texans). Against top-10 run offenses (Cowboys and Saints), they lost by at least a touchdown.


The Panthers defense now gets the services of safety Eric Reid, and they should be better in the back half; they'll need all the help they can get, because something has to give in the explosive pass game when the Giants have the ball. Eli Manning has been terrible getting the ball down the field, ranking as the No. 31 explosive pass offense, but he's faced the third-most difficult schedule in the league. Meanwhile, Carolina defense ranks 31st in explosive pass defense, but has faced the fifth-most difficult schedule.


Lean: Panthers -7


Johnson: The Giants-Saints game was a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter until Alvin Kamara broke a long run for a touchdown while the Saints were running the clock out. New Orleans was the right side regardless, but I think the 33-18 final was a little deceiving. Carolina is coming off its bye week, which is an advantage to get rested and healthier this early in the season. I bet the Panthers -6, and there isn't much else to this play outside of the numbers pointing to a sizable edge at the current number.


My projection is Panthers -7.8, so I wasn't anticipating this to drop from -7 to -6. I'm happy to go against early-week NFL moves 4 when my numbers disagree with the market, like we saw with the Patriots and Broncos in Week.


Pick: Panthers -6


Denver Broncos at New York Jets(PK)

Total: 42.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent picked Denver

Sharp: Denver likely will start this game out by relying on its No. 2 rushing attack, because it struggles passing the football (No. 25th in passing efficiency) and the strength of the Jets is their No. 2 pass defense. Case Keenum has not played well thus far this season. Look for edges when Emmanuel Sandersmatches up on CB Buster Skrine, but apart from that matchup, I expect Denver to do most of its damage on the ground.


The Jets return home after a two-game road trip and are hopeful they will get production out of their No. 29 pass offense. It hasn't been easy for rookie QB Sam Darnold after Week 1, as he has faced three top-10 pass defenses the past three weeks (Jaguars, Browns, Dolphins). Look for him to find more success against Denver.


Pick: Pass


Johnson: Unsurprisingly, the Jets and Darnold struggled mightily to throw the ball against the Jaguars pass defense. Darnold was 17 of 34 for just 167 yards, and a portion of that was in garbage time after the game was already out of hand. The Broncos defense certainly isn't as good as Jacksonville's, but it did a pretty dang good job Monday night against the electric Kansas City offense until Mahomes started throwing left-handed. My projection for the game is Denver -1.0, but a two-point discrepancy through zero like this isn't enough value to make a bet. The total is slightly inflated, and I have my true line at 41.1, but I would likely need to see a 44 before I got involved.


Pick: Pass


Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Total: 58
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Atlanta

Sharp: The Steelers are a pass-heavy offense but go up against a Falcons defense which is weak against both the pass and run and is down yet another defensive starter (DT Grady Jarrett). The Steelers offense is worse under Randy Fichtner, and in large part that is because they are letting Ben Roethlisbergercall more at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers should up their run rate against Atlanta's bad run defense, but they likely won't.


Atlanta's offense is one of the best in the NFL when passing (No. 5) but one of the worst when rushing (No. 29). As such, the Falcons should be more pass-heavy, but like the Steelers, they are improperly slanted and actually run more than average. The Steelers defense is surrendering 9.4 yards per attempt to WRs and the Falcons offense is gobbling up 10.5 yards per attempt and a 62 percent success rate.


Pick: Pass


Johnson: I think it's safe to say that this game between the Steelers (1-2-1) and the Falcons (1-3) is about as close to a must-win for both teams that we can get without taking the term literally. I have the projection Steelers -1.9, but it isn't enough for me to get involved with the side. I imagine that everyone will be hearing all week to just take the over.
This total is at 58 and it keeps creeping up (opened at 56). My true line is 54.3 and at this point I am just patiently waiting to see how high this number gets. I will be watching it closely throughout the weekend and will be grabbing an under at 58.5 or better.


Pick: Lean under 58


Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions(PK)

Total: 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Green Bay

Sharp: In what has traditionally been a battle of the quarterbacks when Rodgers and Matthew Stafford meet, this game could come down to the rushing offenses. The Packers' rushing offense is the NFL's ninth-most efficient and is facing the sixth-worst run defense of the Lions, providing the largest mismatch for Green Bay's offense. On the other side of the ball, the Lions No. 15 run offense likely will have more success against the No. 26 Packers run defense, because Green Bay has the No. 10 pass defense.


The Packers secondary is without two CBs (Davon House and Kelvin King) and the Lions passing game should be dialed in at home after a narrow loss last week in Dallas. Green Bay hasn't been impressive this year apart from its win over the hapless Bills last week, and the Packers are 1-1-1 in their other three games, with a one-point win at home and a 14-point loss in their only road game.


Pick: Lions PK


Johnson: I don't see anything worth betting in this matchup at all. My projection is Packers -0.3 and 49.8 for the total. Matthew Stafford defeated the Packers in both games last season, but obviously Green Bay's team without Aaron Rodgers is a little bit different. I tried to make a case for the under based on yards per play (YPP) numbers to this point in the season. Both defenses' YPP when adjusted for strength of their opponents, however, drop significantly.
This is a game I will be watching to bet in-game or in the second half if an opportunity presents itself. Both offenses have lacked rushing attacks in the past -- albeit better so far this season -- which makes it more difficult to sit on a lead. I certainly can't hate the possibility of betting on Stafford or Rodgers at some point during a football game, so that will be my plan of attack if the numbers and situation line up in-game.


Pick: Pass


Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6)

Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Cincinnati

Sharp: The Bengals have been one of the best surprises in 2018, with the No. 5-ranked offense. However, the offense is beat up right now. They lost TE Tyler Eifert for the year, and WR John Ross is questionable for this contest. The Dolphins will shadow A.J. Green with CB Xavien Howard, making this a game that Tyler Boyd needs to be productive offensively for the Bengals -- as does Joe Mixon, who returns from injury.


After a hot 3-0 start, Miami fell victim to the Patriots machine last week. Offensively the Dolphins lack of production was concerning, but they should have edges targeting RBs out of the backfield. The Dolphins will also have the fortune of going against the NFL's worst third down defense.


Lean: Dolphins +6


Johnson: The Bengals are the team I have adjusted the most in my ratings this season, moving them from my No. 24 team to No. 10. I fortunately haven't found myself betting against Cincinnati yet (3-1 straight up, 3-1 ATS), but each week the market has closed more favorably to the Bengals side than my personal number, and they've exceeded expectations beyond that. Week 5 was the first time that my projection for the game (-6.4) lined up with the opener (-6.5). I thought I finally had a better gauge on where the Bengals are valued in the market, until sure enough on Thursday the Dolphins took some money and this actually went the other way. This is the first time I am looking at potentially backing Cincinnati.


I will need this to get closer to -4 by Sunday to make it an official bet, but this is a matchup that intrigues me now, regardless. I disagreed with the Dolphins money last week, and I thought a convincing New England 38-7 win helped at least somewhat solidify my point.


But here we are again, and Miami is the side getting backed. I have a small edge on the under at 49.5 with my projection coming in at 47.1, so if I were to do anything in the current market, it would be a very small play on under 49.5.


Pick: Lean under 49.5


Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Oakland

Sharp: The Chargers' offense is crushing, but the problem for them is their defense has struggled immensely despite playing a completely average schedule of opposing offenses. The Raiders' offense is sneaky good. They have played the third-most difficult schedule of passing defenses and rank as the No. 7 passing offense. Los Angeles' pass defense has played the two best pass offenses (Rams and Chiefs) and lost both games by double digits, and played two of the worst passing offenses (Bills and 49ers) and won both games while allowing the underdogs to score more than they were projected to in both games.


The Chargers have a very balanced run rate and will face the Raiders' 28th-ranked run defense, but the real edge should come through the air. Oakland the second-worst pass rush and the Chargers have a top-five passing offense. The play-action game could really cause problems for the Raiders defense, and Oakland hasn't faced a good pass offense since Week 1 (Rams).


Pick: Pass


Johnson: My projection for the Chargers hosting the Raiders this week is Los Angeles -7.5. This is exactly where the market opened the point spread for the game Sunday, but it has since been bet down to -5. Last week we bet against a market move disagreement and overreaction in the Patriots game, and this is a case in Week 5 where I will be doing the same thing.


I broke down the Raiders-Browns game above, but there ultimately was nothing impressive for Oakland that I took away from its performance Sunday. The Chargers meanwhile "escaped" at home against a depleted 49ers squad. San Francisco fought hard for the entire game, but the number at -10.5/-10 was slightly inflated. There is no reason to suddenly downgrade the Chargers for their win in Week 4. A line of -5 offers value and I am perfectly OK trusting my numbers again in a spot that goes against the immediate market reaction early in the week.


Pick: Chargers -5


Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Total: 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 67 percent picked Arizona

Sharp: A big consideration in this game must be strength of schedule. The Cardinals have faced the NFL's toughest schedule of opposing defenses and the ninth-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses. Unlike the 49ers, the Cardinals quarterback situation is improved. Josh Rosen was impressive in his debut last week, especially in the fourth quarter, posting a 132 passer rating and averaging 11.1 yards per attempt in a game the Cardinals should have won.


The 49ers surprised the Chargers last week, but got out to a lead early thanks to a pick-six and a drive where they started on their 44 yard line thanks to a missed field goal. That means that 21 of their 27 points come from a pick-six, an 82-yard TD reception and a short-field drive. Take away the 82-yard TD reception by George Kittle, and C.J. Beathard passed 36 times for just 216 yards, a 6.0 yard per attempt average.


Pick: Cardinals +4


Johnson: Kyle Shanahan was indeed able to keep the Chargers game under double-digits and get a cover against the spread with C.J. Beathard under center. The 49ers actually had a small shot at winning the game outright. Shanahan figures it out and puts his team in +EV (positive expected value) spots more often than not, which ultimately is going to give his team the best chance to win no matter how inferior his personnel is. As I write this on Thursday, watching this total get bet down from 41 to 40, I'm trying to figure out how Shanahan's offense and a league-average defense doesn't get to 40 points.


My projection is 42.3, and now I find myself staring at a potential over bet with Beathard and Josh Rosen running the offenses. My buy point is 39.5, so if this moves down off of the 40 I will be jumping in.


Pick: Lean over 40


Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Total: 46.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Minnesota

Sharp: The Eagles absolutely must fix their pass protection for Carson Wentz, and they hope they can do so against the Vikings. Last week, Minnesota sacked Jared Goff only once, and before that it faced the sackable Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers in the first game with his knee injury. Wentz should be more difficult to hit on Sunday, but it needs to be a priority. That is because the Vikings defense has struggled to stop the pass (No. 25) and is allowing 9.8 yards per attempt and a 56 percent success rate to tight ends, something that the Eagles will likely look to target early and often.


On the other side of the ball, the Vikings offense is the most pass-heavy in the NFL, which lines up well against the Eagles, who have the No. 3 run defense but have been far worse defending the pass. Philadelphia's defense has been very strong against TEs and RBs, but is allowing a 53 percent success rate to WRs, which could mean a big day for Adam Thielen or Stephon Diggs.


Lean: Vikings team total over 21


Johnson: My numbers line up exactly with both the side and total that is currently being offered in the market. The talk this week will be of the Minnesota revenge from last year's 38-7 NFC Championship loss to Philadelphia. I promise you, no matter how intriguing it sounds, this is not a quantifiable reason to bet on the Vikings this Sunday. The Eagles themselves are coming off of a tough overtime loss in Tennessee and need to get things going with Carson Wentz back at quarterback. Who is to say they aren't extra focused for this week's game, too?


Being able to sift through the narratives that can actually apply to a particular matchup -- and the ones that are worthless -- is extremely important to your long-term profitability. This is one of those instances that we disregard the noise and pass on a game that doesn't offer us any edge whatsoever.


Pick: Pass


Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent picked Los Angeles

Sharp: I'm anxious to see this game unfold, because while the Seahawks defense ranks No. 6 overall and No. 9 against the pass, it has faced the easiest schedule of passing offenses and the third-easiest schedule overall. Seattle beat Josh Rosen in his first start ever (in a game it should have lost) and beat Dak Prescott, and lost to Mitchell Trubisky and Case Keenum. I view this matchup as one of those shock-to-the-system games for a Seahawks defense that is without Earl Thomas for the first time this year.


The Seattle offense is stronger with the return of Doug Baldwin, and it already has a strong run game. The Rams secondary is still down a number of players, and the run defense ranks just 23rd. If the Seahawks run the ball effectively, they have the ability to keep this game close. But I think there are simply too many weapons for this Rams offense.


Lean: Rams


Johnson: Each week since I made the comparison of the Rams to the Steve Kerr-era Golden State Warriors, they have given us more evidence to support the claim.


Regardless, it is almost getting to the point that we just don't bother betting against McVay and company until we actually see them falter. They gained over 10 yards per play this past week against the Minnesota Vikings! I won't be the first to admit it, but you could probably talk me into that fact that I was fortunate to cash my Vikings +7.5 ticket.


My number for this game is LA -5.75, so there is in fact a slight edge on the Seahawks. I mentioned earlier that it is difficult to quantify the effects of coaches and coordinators on teams, and I can certainly recognize that I may just not have my Rams numbers as high as they need to be despite significant adjustments each of the past three weeks. I won't have it in me to bet against the league's Super Bowl-favorite, though. Good luck if you do.



Pick: Pass