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Best College Football Bets For Week 6
Best college football bets for Week 6
Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Season records
Steele: 15-16-1 ATS (last week: 4-2)
Coughlin: 17-8 ATS (last week: 3-1)
Fallica: 15-14 ATS (last week: 2-4)
As we enter the heart of the college football season, each team reveals more about itself by the week and each game offers a chance for the most observant bettors to take advantage of what they learn. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (O/U 58)
7 p.m. ET, Friday (ESPN)
Coughlin: I have a confession to make. Louisville will not win more than seven games, as I wrongly predicted before the season started. I cannot see the Cardinals being up for this game, as they blew a late fourth-quarter lead to Florida State last week, with the Ramblin' Wreck bringing their option offense on a short week for this Friday night game.
The way this season has started in Louisville makes me think they might be pulling the plug on the rest of the season -- and I don't see Bobby Petrino's offense improving; they have averaged only 311 yards of offense through their first five games, which has led to an 0-2 start in the conference. I'll take the road favorite here and lay the points.
ATS pick: Georgia Tech -4
Score: Georgia Tech 31, Louisville 20
No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-6) vs. No. 24 Virginia Tech Hokies (O/U 57)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday (ABC)
Steele: One of my absolute favorite entrances in college football is when the Hokies come out to "Enter Sandman" during a night game at Lane Stadium. Last week Virginia Tech bounced back from their surprising road loss to Old Dominion with a sound road win at Duke. I feel like Notre Dame is one of the strongest teams in the country, capable of handling this tough test because they are the more experienced team.
Virginia Tech's outstanding defensive coordinator, Bud Foster, has been doing an excellent job with a young defensive unit, though. This game is by far Notre Dame's toughest test yet, but Ian Book gives the Irish a solid pass attack. The Irish also got running back Dexter Williams back last week, and he proceeded to rush for 161 yards and 7.7 yards per carry against Stanford. In fact, the Irish had a commanding 550-229 yard edge over the Cardinal last week.
Notre Dame already has a pair of top-10 victories, over Michigan in their opener and Stanford last week. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has faced the 95th-toughest schedule, and none of their first five opponents are ranked at the moment.
ATS pick: Notre Dame -6
Score: Notre Dame 31, Virginia Tech 17
Utah State Aggies vs. BYU Cougars (-2.5; O/U 54)
9 p.m. ET, Friday (ESPN2)
Fallica: Despite a 6-7 mark last year, Utah State beat the Cougars by 16 in Logan -- so revenge has to be on the minds of BYU. This edition of Matt Wells' team is better this year, though, and it's looking like the trajectory of BYU could be headed down after early season upsets of Wisconsin and Arizona. Maybe something to keep in mind: BYU has faced three Pac-12 teams and Wisconsin thus far. Could the Cougars be feeling a bit of the physical toll for such an ambitious schedule?
The Aggies have been rolling since a close loss in East Lansing to start the year and the EPA metrics show them with both a big offensive advantage and a 15-spot edge on defense. They're another underdog our numbers have favored.
ATS pick: Utah State +2.5
Score: Utah State 27, BYU 23
Utah Utes vs. No. 14 Stanford Cardinal (-5.5; O/U 45.5)
10:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Fallica: I don't like the direction this season appears to be heading in for Stanford. The defense doesn't look to be improved, the offensive line is having trouble run blocking and Bryce Love is hurt. Now they have to face one of the most physical defenses in the Pac-12 after coming off a two-week stretch at Oregon and at Notre Dame.
Since Utah joined the Pac-12, the underdog in this series is 2-0-1 with two outright wins (Utah was the underdog in all three instances) in this game. Those three games were decided by three, three and six points, respectively. It's worth taking a shot with the Utes on the money line as well.
ATS pick: Utah +5.5
Score: Stanford 20, Utah 17
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-35) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (O/U 56)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Coughlin: Last week the Tide was featured on "Bad Beats" with Scott Van Pelt, as they were up 56-0, pulled the plug and gave up 14 fourth-quarter points to the Ragin Cajuns from UL Lafayette. Nick Saban's team has now outscored its five opponents this season by 206 points (55 points better than any other FBS team) despite a minus-11 scoring margin in the fourth quarter.
I see a familiar scenario happening, and I hope that Chad Morris can dial up a couple scores late to help us out. We will refrain from giving the points and instead just root for both teams to score and take the over.
ATS pick: Over 56 points
Score: Alabama 51, Arkansas 17
No. 5 LSU Tigers (-3) vs. No. 22 Florida Gators (O/U 43.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: I agreed with Las Vegas and had LSU an underdog in their past two Top 25 matchups, against Miami and Auburn, but I respected the Tigers' strong underdog record and did not put out a selection against them. LSU is now No. 5 in the country and comes into this game as the favorite to win, while the Gators will be the home underdog looking to play the lack-of-respect card.
Last year LSU won in the Swamp by a single point when Florida missed a late PAT. Florida is now the most experienced team in the SEC and LSU is the least experienced team. Last week in the second half, with a hostile crowd against them, Florida had a 226-43 yard-edge in a strong road win at Mississippi State. Florida's defensive front is also getting key players back from suspension and injury.
Dan Mullen has covered his past four games against LSU, and I think Florida will pull off the upset in the Swamp.
ATS pick: Florida +3
Score: Florida 21, LSU 17
Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 20 Michigan State Spartans (-10.5; O/U 43.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: I'm in no way saying the Spartans are underachieving this year, but will say I just expected more. Quarterback Brian Lewerke hasn't put up big stats this season. He has thrown as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns and he passed for just 185 yards against the Chippewas from Central Michigan last week.
Last season, Lewerke set school single-game records for passing yards (445), total offense (475) and completions (39) against the Wildcats, only for Michigan State to lose in triple overtime, 39-31. The Spartans have lost three of their past four meetings with Northwestern. I just feel like this is too many points to give when these two teams get together.
ATS pick: Northwestern +10.5
Score: Michigan State 27, Northwestern 23
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (-13.5; O/U 54.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN3)
Steele: The Eagles are 4-0 in this series and have outscored the Jaguars 159-32. South Alabama is on their third straight road game while Georgia Southern had a bye two weeks ago. Georgia Southern was the second-most experienced team in the county coming into the season and proved last week that they should be counted as one of the elite teams in the Sun Belt when they upset Arkansas State at home.
South Alabama faced another elite Sun Belt team last week and got drubbed by Appalachian State 52-7, allowing 348 rush yards along the way. Although Clemson is excellent at defending the option with the nations' best defensive line and held the Eagles to 80 yards rushing, Georgia Southern has averaged 334 yards per game rushing and 6.2 yards per carry against all other teams. The spread is also under two touchdowns.
ATS pick: Georgia Southern -13.5
Score: Georgia Southern 38, South Alabama 13
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. No. 21 Colorado Buffaloes (-2.5; O/U 64.5)
4 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: Admit it, Arizona State is a lot better than you thought. The Sun Devils could easily be 4-1 with a single loss in a competitive game in Seattle. Despite a 3-2 mark, what ASU has done thus far looks more impressive than the resume of wins Colorado has put together; the teams that CU has beaten are a combined 1-16. I'm a big fan of QB Steven Montez and WR Laviska Shenault, but I also like the ASU offense, which is 21st nationally in offensive EPA. That includes games against pretty good defenses in Washington and Michigan State.
I also like our power ratings, which have the Sun Devils as a two-point favorite here. Good chance for Team Herm to pick up a road win before an idle week, followed by games against Stanford and USC.
ATS pick: Colorado -2.5
Score: Arizona State 31, Colorado 30
No. 13 Kentucky Wildcats vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-6; O/U 50.5)
7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)
Coughlin: I'm curious -- why is a team that is 3-2 giving six points to an undefeated team? I'll stop trying to figure that out, and I'll just lay the points.
ATS pick: Texas A&M
Score: Texas A&M 27, Kentucky 17
UAB Blazers vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs(-9.5; O/U 55.5)
7 p.m. ET, Saturday
Steele: UAB head coach Bill Clark has been a C-USA away underdog five times, and he is 5-0 ATS in that role with four outright upsets. Last week, the Blazers jumped out to a 21-0 halftime lead and coasted in the second half. Louisiana Tech comes off a pair of draining games; they only trailed at LSU 24-21 in the fourth quarter (ultimately falling 38-21) and last week trailed North Texas by 21 points before rallying to win 29-27 as the Mean Green missed a pair of fourth-quarter field goals.
UAB will be confident after beating Louisiana Tech in Birmingham last year, in a game they never trailed. It would not surprise me if UAB won this one outright as a nearly double-digit underdog.
ATS pick: UAB +9.5
Score: Louisiana Tech 28, UAB 27
South Florida Bulls (-15) vs. UMass Minutemen (O/U 71)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: South Florida has been pretty uninspiring in their last couple of games as they snuck past Illinois and East Carolina as big favorites, and even in their win over Georgia Tech the Bulls gave up more than 600 yards against an ACC cellar-dweller. While the Minutemen have struggled defensively, QB Andrew Ford and the offense should put up enough points to grab the ATS win here even with head coach Mark Whipple suspended this week. The road to six wins and bowl eligibility is tough for UMass, so they'll need an upset here to keep those hopes alive. Dunno if they get it here, but this is as good a spot as any.
ATS pick: UMass +15
Score: USF 41, UMass 31
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-19; O/U 57.5)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Coughlin: I'm just taking the over in Nebraska games until I don't want to anymore.
ATS pick: Over 57.5 points
Score: Wisconsin 41, Nebraska 22
No. 19 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-7.5; O/U 61.5)
12 p.m. ET, Saturday (at AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX)
Steele: The past four Red River Rivalry games were decided by seven points or less, and Texas has covered each of the previous five meetings. Last week Texas led Kansas State 19-0 at halftime with a 191-64 yard edge, and they may have started looking ahead to this game as they won by only five points (19-14). The Sooners' offense, led by Kyler Murray, has been potent, putting up 49 points per game. But they have yet to face a ranked foe. Their first five opponents also have a combined 1-10 record against Power 5 teams.
Texas already has two wins over ranked teams in USC and TCU, by a combined 38 points. The Longhorns also have the stronger defense in this matchup. Texas head coach Tom Herman is 11-1 as an underdog, with eight outright upsets, and I think this game comes down to the wire.
ATS pick: Texas +7.5
Score: Oklahoma 31, Texas 30
Navy Midshipmen (-3) vs. Air Force Falcons(O/U 48.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Fallica: Air Force was in a lookahead spot last week in a home loss to Nevada, without starting QB Isaiah Sanders -- though he's expected back Saturday. This week the Falcons get a chance to make amends for not only that loss, but a 48-45 loss last year at Navy. Our power ratings make Air Force a 3.5-point favorite here, so we have the game a complete flip from the Vegas number. That means we'll grab Air Force in a game which has been won by the home team in each of the past four years.
ATS pick: Air Force +3
Score: Air Force 38, Navy 35
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