Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 4 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be a separate file).
Total: 48 PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Miami Sharp: Miami has earned a 3-0 start against decent competition, but this game for me is more about New England.
Offensively, the Patriots don't rank in the top 10 in any of my key metrics, and defensively they are even worse. The overall strength of schedule faced by the Patriots' defense has been No. 22 and they rank No. 21 in efficiency. The two metrics that really stand out are their inability to rush the passer (No. 31) and their inability to prevent explosive runs (No. 28). If Miami can establish the run (rank No. 9) and wear down the Patriots' defense, much like what the Lions did on Sunday night, they will have a huge edge. I'd count on Bill Belichick focusing on stopping the run.
The Patriots' offense is the biggest surprise, as it ranks No. 18 overall. However, one edge they will have in this game is their ability to target the tight end. Miami's defense has been good against WRs (only allowing a 43 percent success rate) but they've allowed a 54 percent success rate to TEs and 7.8 yards per attempt. New England is passing for a 70 percent success rate and 11.2 yards per attempt to its TEs. This game will come down to whether the Patriots can stop the Dolphins' run game and whether Miami can stop Rob Gronkowski.
Pick: Lean Dolphins +7 (available at several shops)
Johnson: The Patriots opened -9.5 at home to the Dolphins on Sunday afternoon before their Sunday night game in Detroit. Most books put up a -7 Monday morning that got pushed down to -6.5 or plus money on the -7 side depending on the shop. As bad as New England has looked in back-to-back weeks against the Jaguars and Lions, this is a pretty ridiculous overreaction. Injuries to the defense or not, this number should be closer to double digits (where it opened at Westgate on Sunday afternoon). If the performance Sunday night somehow makes the Patriots three points worse overnight, then so be it, but I am willing to bet against it.
Total: 47.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Indianapolis Sharp: Andrew Luck isn't having much luck throwing the ball down the field, but part of that has been due to the schedule. While the Colts rank 21st in passing efficiency and No. 31 in yards per pass, the Eagles, Redskins and Bengals all rank in the top third of pass defenses in the NFL. This week, they finally get to face a Texans defense that has trouble with the pass. Houston ranks 28th, in particular, and ranks extremely bad defending WRs (48 percent success rate allowed) and TEs (71 percent success rate allowed and 14.0 yards per attempt).
Houston's offense has been very average to this point, and a key problem impacting its ability to be more consistent is it ranks No. 25 in pass protection (against the 30th-rated schedule of defenses). Now the Texans must face the Colts' pass defense, which remarkably ranks No. 7 in pass-rush efficiency. I wouldn't be surprised to see the very run-heavy Texans attack attempt to target more passes deep down the field and force the Colts to get more aggressive with their passing offense, something they appear to be reluctant to encourage.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: Despite their 0-3 record, the Texans still rank eighth in the league in yards per play at 6.1. The defense has been league average, but combined, this makes for a team that will win football games. All three losses were by a single possession, and they have actually covered the second-half spread in all three games. Bill O'Brien has made excellent adjustments at halftime, and I still believe in him and Deshaun Watson. The Colts haven't been very good. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency and aren't a team I would put a ton of stock in despite their road win over Washington and leading both the Bengals and Eagles in the fourth quarter. My number is Texans -1.4 as the favorite. This is a prime spot to use Houston in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 (we broke down teaser strategy here).
Total: 51.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Cincinnati Sharp: There are edges on both sides of the ball for the offenses in this game. Atlanta's defense ranks No. 30 and is especially weak in rushing the passer (29th). The Bengals' pass protection ranks No. 2 in the NFL despite playing the sixth-most-difficult schedule of pass rushes, including No. 7 Colts, No. 13 Panthers and No. 14 Ravens. It will be a major step down in competition facing the Falcons' anemic pass rush. That's a big problem because Atlanta's secondary is full of injuries, including both starting safeties being out.
On the other side of the ball, the Bengals' defense ranks No. 30 defending RB passes and No. 25 in pass rush. They have faced a difficult schedule in both of those metrics. The Falcons need to improve their rushing. Last week the Bengals were gutted by the Panthers on the ground, but the Falcons' rushing offense ranks No. 30, albeit against the third-most-difficult schedule. If Atlanta can run the ball better, it will help the Falcons to stay in this game, but even laying five points seems like a lot.
Pick: Bengals +5
Johnson: We wound up with a rare sweat-free winner on the Bengals/Panthers over 43.5 last week and that was actually my look in this matchup in Atlanta for Week 4. It opened at 48 but quickly got bet up to as high as 52.5 at some places, which I think is a fair move. The opener of Falcons -5.5 on the side was spot on with my number at -5.45, so the move down to -4 at this point is something I am keeping my eye on. Atlanta was bet against heavily in Week 3 with the Saints closing a short underdog after +3 being around earlier in the week. The market seems to dislike the Falcons, and they do have injuries they are working through on the defensive side of the ball, but if this were to hit -3 I'd be buying Atlanta at that number.
Total: 45 PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Buffalo Sharp: The fact that Buffalo, with the worst passing offense in the NFL, went to Minnesota and delivered the performance they did was remarkable. The Bills still averaged only 6.6 yards per pass play and a 40 percent success rate, but they used enough gimmick and trick plays to make it work. One big struggle for Buffalo has been protecting the QB, and they rank dead last against the eighth most difficult schedule. The Packers rank No. 26 in pass-rush efficiency, the easiest opponent for the Bills this year.
Green Bay is coming off a bad loss to the Redskins and needs to improve in the red zone. Year to date, the Packers rank No. 27 in my blended metric against the third-most-difficult schedule. They now get to face the Bills, who rank dead last in red-zone success. In virtually all my newly updated strength-of-schedule metrics, the Packers' passing offense has faced a top-five most difficult schedule in every category, but now get to face the Bills -- who rank below average. This should provide a strong boost for the Packers' point output.
Pick: Lean Packers over 27.5 points
Johnson: This game opened Packers -11 and was immediately bet down to -10. My projection for the game is Green Bay -10.15, so I thought it was a really fair line despite seeing Buffalo cruise to a win in Minnesota and the Packers lose in Washington. As I was sitting down Thursday afternoon breaking down these games, the screen lit up with Bills money pushing it as low as Packers -9 at a few shops now. I know I sold Green Bay last week because of their defensive issues (27th in defensive efficiency) and Rodgers not looking like he is 100 percent healthy, but if I were to look at any side at this point it would be the Packers under double-digits. There is not enough ultimately at the current number, though, to get involved.
Total: 44 PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Detroit Sharp: Coming off a huge upset last week, the Lions are hoping to keep their momentum going in Dallas, but the Cowboys' run game could cause immediate problems. Dallas has the No. 1-rated rushing offense and is second in explosive rushes. The Lions' defense, against mediocre competition, ranks No. 27 and No. 29, respectively, in those metrixs. The Cowboys should have little problem controlling the game on the ground, and while I'm not a big fan of excessive rushing in the first half, there is little doubt it won't be useful in this matchup.
The Lions are a pass-oriented offense that will get to face the Cowboys' defense without a key cog, Sean Lee. He has been instrumental in providing all-around defensive improvement in years past, and the Cowboys struggle to stop runs when he is absent. Detroit should be able to hang without Lee, but this game will come down to Dallas' offense on third down. They rank No. 31 in third-down offense while the Lions rank No. 5 in third-down defense. If Dallas can gain enough yardage on early downs to limit the third-and-longs, they should have enough. But if they can't stay on the field, the Lions' offense could find enough holes to make the game close.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: I had anticipated an overreaction to some degree after Detroit beat up the Patriots on Sunday night. However, my projection for the game is Dallas -2.9, so the -3 in the current market is a good number. The total is the intriguing line in this matchup at 44. I've talked about the Cowboys' defense being their strength early this season and how I entered the season looking to be their unders. Through three weeks they have the best defense in the NFL, allowing only 4.3 yards per play and unders in their games are 3-0. I did not have any money on the last two because I thought the market had adjusted pretty well after Week 1. A total of 44 this week is getting close to enough of an edge that warrants a bet. My projection is 42.6 and I will be firing if we see 44.5 or higher later this week.
Total: 38.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Jacksonville Sharp: The Jaguars' embarrassing loss as 10-point home favorites last week puts them in an interesting position. They need to win this game before they head out for back-to-back road games. The 2018 Jaguars have turned to a surprising pass-first approach, which worked really well against the Patriots in Week 2. But such an approach requires the best from Blake Bortles, and his inconsistency is problematic. What also is problematic is the Jets have the No. 1 passing defense in the NFL and it will be difficult for Bortles to maintain a consistent performance. As such, the Jaguars may use this opportunity to turn back to Leonard Fournette, who practiced this week.
On the other side of the ball, the Jets have failed to exceed 17 points in each of their past two games, but playing two top-10 pass defenses in the Dolphins and Browns will make it difficult. The problem is the Jaguars have the No. 10 pass defense and have improved their run defense dramatically as compared with last season. The only good news is the Jets have extra time to prepare for this game.
Pick: Jets +7.5
Johnson: The Jaguars these past two weeks would be a great reminder -- if the Bills/Vikings Week 3 matchup wasn't -- that on any given Sunday anything can happen. Bortles threw for 376 yards and four TDs against the Patriots in Week 2 and he followed it up with zero TDs and 155 yards against the Titans. The Jaguars actually held the Titans to nine points and lost at home.
This opened at -9 right where I have the game lined personally, but money came in right away and started pushing it down. This is the second leg of my two-team, six-point teaser I would bet this week at -110. Sam Darnold struggled severely in Cleveland last week, throwing for 169 yards, zero TDs and two interceptions on 15-of-31 passing. I don't envision that changing much headed to Jacksonville to face a defense that ranks third in the NFL this season against the pass (and was the best in 2017 by quite a big margin).
Total: 46.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Tampa Bay Sharp: Tampa Bay has been rolling offensively but has faced several shaky secondaries, namely New Orleans and Pittsburgh. Now they must face the Bears, who rank as the No. 1 overall defense and the No. 3 pass defense. But Chiago's defense has faced a shaky schedule of passing offenses: the No. 16 Packers, No. 20 Seahawks and No. 31 Cardinals. This will be a big test for both passing units when the Buccaneers have the ball, and I can't wait to see which team has the upper hand. I also can't wait to see how Ryan Fitzpatrick performs in his first start since being named the starter, as a poor performance could land him back on the bench -- and Fitzpatrick has never excelled under stress.
The Bears' offense is extremely weak, ranking bottom-five in pass efficiency. The hope was Mitchell Trubisky would rise to the challenge with the aid of Matt Nagy's play calling, but that hasn't been the case thus far. On script in the first quarter, Trubisky is 20-of-25, with 8.0 yards per attempt with a 57 percent success rate (No. 6). After the first quarter, he is 52-of-80, with 4.8 yards per attempt with a 39 percent success rate (No. 28).
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Chicago defense is good enough to slow down a Tampa Bay offense that got to tee off against the Saints, Eagles and Steelers through the first three weeks of the season (all outside of the top 10 in opponent yards per play). Fitzpatrick or Winston at QB? We don't actually know yet. There is going to be some drama surrounding the quarterback decision all week, and if Winston actually goes then I like this bet slightly more. My number is Bears -3.75 regardless and I'm taking the -3 while it's available.
Total: 41 PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent picked Philadelphia Sharp: The Eagles offense looks to get back on track now that starting QB Carson Wentz is back under center, but the biggest edge they will have is their defense. The Eagles rank as the No. 2 overall run defense and the Titans have the No. 26-ranked run offense. The Titans are the most run-heavy team in the NFL, so it would appear they would be in trouble. But time will tell if the Eagles' run defense is as stout as it appears. They have faced the easiest schedule of run offenses year to date, while the Titans have faced the hardest schedule of run defenses. With a somewhat limited Marcus Mariota, it will be essential for the Titans to stay on schedule when running the football.
The Titans defense has been particularly good at limiting explosive passes and playing well in the red zone and on third downs. This will be a challenge for the Eagles, who are dealing with a number of injuries. They may get Jay Ajayi back but Corey Clement is on the injury report and receiver Alshon Jeffery, who appeared he may make his 2018 debut, didn't practice on Thursday. The Eagles have a decided edge on the ground (No. 4 rushing offense vs. No. 24 rushing defense) so they should be able to lean on their ground game if they are still without Jeffrey.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: Unfortunately, I was on the bad end of a game that the Eagles dominated in every way except the final score. Philadelphia ultimately won the game 20-16 over Indianapolis but failed to cover the -6 despite outgaining the Colts 379 yards to 209 and possessing the ball for 40 minutes and 20 seconds. The discrepancy in the final score versus the rest of the numbers in that game lies in two Wentz turnovers inside his own 17-yard line. Both of these set the Colts up for easy field-goal tries. Andrew Luck took care of the football on his end, and Indianapolis was able to stay within the number. The Titans pulled off an upset in Jacksonville as a double-digit underdog with Marcus Mariota back under center. My projections are Titans +3.2 and 42.1, so there isn't much that interests me here.
Total: 39 PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Seattle Sharp: The Seahawks are 1-2, but it could be worse. They rank as the No. 6 overall defense, including No. 4 against the pass, but have played the NFL's easiest schedule of pass defenses. Fortunately, the Cardinals rank as the NFL's worst pass offense in the NFL. They are switching to rookie QB Josh Rosen, and that could give the pass defense an extra boost if he is reluctant or hesitant in the pocket. Arizona has not established the run, ranking No. 29 in rushing efficiency, but will likely try to attack the Seahawks more on the ground this week, which makes sense as Seattle is far weaker against the run than the pass right now. Seattle's pass defense has been extremely strong defending RBs and TEs, but far more mediocre against WRs.
Seattle's offense has been one of the more predictably bad offenses in the NFL, ranking No. 26 in offensive efficiency, and now draws the Cardinals' defense, which has been stout (No. 11) against strong rushing offenses. However, Arizona struggles to defend explosive rushes, which is something the Seahawks have failed to deliver yet this season.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Johnson: Congratulations to those who had it in them to bet the Cardinals last week against the spread. You each were lucky enough to have your stomach drop as Rosen threw a pick-six down two points in the final seconds, but fortunately got it overturned when the Bears lined up offside. Sam Bradford had turned it over four times in the second half of that game and was the ultimate reason that Arizona blew a 14-0 lead. Rosen was announced the starting quarterback this Sunday and so there are some unknown variables that go into betting this game. I personally will not be touching it. The lack of data on Rosen compounded with how poor the Cardinals have played overall to this point makes it tough to actually wager money on either the side or total.
Total: 44.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent picked Oakland Sharp: The Browns have quietly delivered top-10 defensive numbers against a top-10 schedule of opposing offenses, having to tangle with the Steelers and Saints already this year. They do have one lone weakness and that is defending RB passes, where they have allowed a 76 percent success rate and 7.7 yards per attempt. Those numbers are substantially better than what they allow to RBs and TEs, where they rank dead last in the NFL. That's an advantage to the Raiders' offense, which ranks as the No. 2 RB-pass offense, but Oakland is going to need more offensively than RB passes.
Throw Cleveland's numbers out the window because they now have a QB who can deliver downfield with more precision than Tyrod Taylor ever did. It seemed like what offensive coordinator Todd Haley was asking of Taylor was not to his strengths. The Raiders rank as the No. 31 defense against explosive passing (and all passing in general), so the opportunity is there for the Browns to play catch-up should they fall behind early.
Pick: Raiders first half -1.5 Johnson: I will preface this with the fact my number for the game is Oakland -3.55. My assumption is that the Raiders will be a popular pick this week. The narratives surrounding Baker Mayfield and the Browns will be rampant. Rookie quarterback and No. 1 pick in the NFL draft comes in and leads Cleveland to a comeback win -- their first win since Dec. 24, 2016. The Browns certainly can't win another game, this time on the road, with Mayfield in his first career start, right?
We will also hear plenty about how the 0-3 Raiders could easily be 2-1. It's true. Similarly to the Cardinals game with Rosen starting at quarterback, it is tough for me to have an opinion strong enough on this game that is worth betting.
Mayfield is obviously a massive wild card. He looked eons better than Taylor under center and could easily propel a Cleveland team already loaded on defense to become competitive. The analytics crowd will say that there is no such thing as an athlete having "it," or at least that "it" isn't actually quantifiable. To me, it looks like Mayfield has "it." It looked that way at Oklahoma, too. How much that is actually worth to the Browns and an NFL point spread remains to be seen. I will need more data before I bet any Browns games in the near future.
Total: 46.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 59 percent picked L.A. Sharp: This could have been one of the better games of the day, but due to Jimmy Garoppolo's ACL injury we now have to watch C.J. Beathard. Beathard failed to put up over 13 points in four of his five starts last year, and now after allowing 24-plus points in all three games, the 49ers will need Beathard to perform much better to keep this one close. The Chargers' defense is far worse than the unit we expected entering the season. They are still missing Joey Bosaand Corey Liuget up front, and rank No. 26 overall including last against explosive passes and in rushing success.
The problem will be keeping pace with the Chargers. We saw the 49ers get into a big hole last week against the Chiefs and they were able to come back, but that was with Garoppolo. The Chargers' offense has been playing tremendous so far this season, and rank No. 3 overall (including No. 4 in passing efficiency and No. 1 in explosive rushing). I see the 49ers falling behind quickly, at which point I don't have confidence in Beathard rallying the troops.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: Beathard is clearly a drop-off from Garoppolo, but the question when we are looking to bet these games against a point spread is how many points a particular player is worth compared with his replacement. My personal number has the 49ers 4.2 points worse per game with Beathard at quarterback. If Garoppolo were playing I would have this game lined Chargers -4.8. Now, with a little simple math, we have this game at Chargers -9.0.
I trust Kyle Shanahan will design a game plan that caters to Beathard. At +10 this wouldn't warrant a play, but there are shops out there offering +10.5 on San Francisco. That is worth a smaller play for me this weekend on the 49ers.
Total: 50.5 PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent picked New Orleans Sharp: The biggest question I have in this game is what approach New York takes on offense. The Saints are the NFL's worst pass defense, but No. 1 run defense. Last week, the Giants faced a Texans defense that ranked No. 28 against the pass and No. 3 against the run. And yet the Giants inexplicably chose to run the ball on 11 of their 15 (73 percent) first downs in the first half. These run plays produced a 36 percent success rate, while passes produced a 75 percent success rate and averaged 11.0 yards per attempt.
Evan Engram (MCL sprain) is going to miss this game, which is a big loss as the Giants are averaging 8.6 yards per target to their TEs. However, the tight end is literally the only position this Saints defense has played well against, allowing just a 39 percent success rate. The Saints are a pass-first offense that can play from ahead or behind. The Giants' defense ranks No. 24 against the pass and hasn't played a good passing offense so far this year (Jaguars, Cowboys and Texans); their secondary will be severely tested, especially without Eli Apple.
Lean: Giants over 23.5 points
Johnson: Both the Giants and the Saints picked up fantastic road wins in Week 3. My number for this game is exactly Saints -3.5, but I had some interest in betting the over at the current 50.5 total. I decided to stay off for the time being because I am concerned with how stubborn Pat Shurmur could be with Saquon Barkley and the run game.
Surprisingly, the Saints have the league's best rushing defense (3.0 yards per opponent rush attempt), while giving up 10.9 yards per opponent pass attempt. The next worst defending the pass this year is the Chargers, who are giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt. If the Giants come out throwing then I anticipate we will see plenty of points. If they are force-feeding Barkley, then it may kill an opportunity.
This seems like a reasonable spot to wait and bet the game live or in game. If the Giants come out slinging it through the air, I will be jumping in and grabbing the over live. We already know what the Saints can do offensively.
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Best Bets On Week 4 NFL Games
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5)
Reply With Quote