NFL Week 4 early betting look: The strength of the Rams and the art of the teaser

Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Any given Sunday. In Week 3, a 16.5-point underdog they call the Buffalo Billsbeat the Vikings 27-6 in Minnesota. Another double-digit favorite in Jacksonville lost a game in which it gave up only nine points to a banged up Marcus Mariota. The Giants won a game, and Eli Manning even came close to throwing for 300 yards, which he did only once last year, against the Philadelphia Eagles.


The Cardinals almost won a game. Well, they had multiple chances to, but in any event the most anemic offense in the NFL scored two touchdowns against the new-look Chicago defense. The Lions made Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots look like the 2017 Cleveland Browns. Speaking of the Browns, they won a football game (on Thursday, but same point). Any given Sunday. Let's dive into some of the other details that stuck out to me in Week 3 -- and how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 4.
Though it's easy to overreact after three games, there are some clear trends emerging that are worth paying attention to. Context is key, and any given line can be imbalanced in either direction, but the state of these three teams in particular is worth keeping a close eye on.


Buy: Los Angeles Rams

This doesn't mean that their spreads each week can't be inflated or that I won't bet against them, but it does mean that I think they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. I had questions entering year two of the McVay-Goff era, but the majority of those have been answered. A friend of mine texted me a couple of minutes into their game against the Chargers Sunday and said, "The Rams are the 2018 NFL's Golden State Warriors." It's a really good comparison. Their offense is electric, and they have at least five guys who are top three at their position to go along with an innovative head coach who is actually able to make use of them all. They aren't hateable (yet), and I'm sure we will be seeing the Rams make waves in the playoffs for the next five to seven years.


Sell: Green Bay Packers

What is there to like about a team that's ranked 27th defensively and 18th offensively through three games? "AARON RODGERS!!!" you shout, with your cheesehead on and your Mike McCarthy shrine in the back. Look, Rodgers is one of the best -- when he's healthy. The knee injury he suffered against the Bears in Week 1 is clearly taking a toll on both his mobility and the playcalling versatility for the Packers; 89 rushing yards per game isn't going to do the trick either when you're trying to bail out a hampered quarterback.


Even if the offense were in OK shape (it isn't), it would still have to be covering for a defense that rates as one of the worst in the league despite having played three teams that rank in the bottom half of the NFL in offensive efficiency. The Packers have multiple issues, and they likely aren't a team I will be looking to bet on until I see evidence of change.


Hold: Houston Texans

Despite their 0-3 record, the Houston Texans still rank eighth in the league in yards per play at 6.1. The defense has been league average, but combined, this makes for a team that will win football games. All three losses were by a single possession, and they have actually covered the second-half spread in all three games. Bill O'Brien has made excellent adjustments at halftime, and I still believe he is an impactful coach -- and that Deshuan Watson can be an impactful NFL quarterback. Don't sell the Texans yet. The early money in Week 4 agrees, and we've already seen them bet from +2.5 to PK in their matchup against the Colts in Indianapolis.
Early line moves: Week 4

Disagree: The Patriots opened -9.5 at home to the Dolphins Sunday afternoon before their Sunday night game in Detroit. Most books put up a -7 Monday morning that got pushed down to -6.5 or +$ on the -7 side depending on the shop. As bad as New England has looked in back-to-back weeks against the Jaguars and Lions, this is a pretty ridiculous overreaction. Injuries to the defense or not, this number should be closer to double digits (where it opened at Westgate Sunday afternoon). If the performance last night somehow makes the Patriots three points worse overnight, then so be it, but I am willing to bet against it.


Agree: The Vikings opened +7 at the Rams Sunday and have since moved to +6.5 in the market. If I thought the Chargers were getting too many points at +7 in Week 3, then I certainly would be jumping on Minnesota getting the same number. I understand how absolutely dreadful the Vikings looked in their blowout home loss to the Bills. There may not be a game the rest of the season in which a contender looks as bad as Minnesota did. But remember, no team is as good or bad as its best or worst performance. We deal in week-to-week analysis of single-game sample sizes. Never overreact. Trust the numbers and the process.
Handicapper's toolbox: Teasers in the NFL

On three different occasions this past week, I had people reach out to me with questions about teasers in the NFL. In one instance, I had someone asking about four-team, 13-point teasers, in another I had someone share that they were doing two-team, six-point teasers on three-point favorites through 0, and in another, teasing totals was a regular weekly practice. I hadn't realized at this point that standard teaser basics still might not be common knowledge. With the future legalization across different states in our country, the use of teasers will only grow. Let me tell you why each of these three methods won't be profitable long-term and give you an option that is +EV when used correctly at the fair price.


Four-team, 13-point teasers:While getting 13 points and having action in potentially four different games sounds appealing, most books are making you pay -130 or even -140 to make these bets. At a price of -130, a bettor would need to hit 56.5 percent just to break even. It's hard enough for the majority of bettors to hit 52.38 percent against the -110. The chances of someone correctly choosing four sides within 13 points at a rate that eclipses 56.5 percent -- and doing it consistently -- is nearly impossible. I wouldn't bother trying.


Two-team, six-point teasers through 0: This one I will admit is on the right track. Two-team, six-point teasers at -110 can be used effectively and profitably in the NFL. A surefire way to kill that EV, however, is to tease sides through 0. While three is a key number, and the prospects of getting +3 when the team is favored by -3 seem nice, the math still doesn't beat the vig at -110 long-term. Landing on the three results in a tie and not a win. So sure, you would be defending yourself from a potential loss if the team were to lose by exactly three, but the bet could still wind up a loser if the second leg of the teaser were to lose anyway. "Ties win" teasers do exist, but they'll charge you more than the -110 to place the bet to begin with and kill any advantage you may have had there.


Teasing totals: There isn't any scenario where teasing totals is profitable long-term. Don't do it.


The psychology of the teaser is fascinating to me. Getting "free" points? I only have to be right twice? Multiple sportsbooks have adjusted their juice on two-team, six-point teasers because they knew they were advantageous to certain players. At -120 or -130, there isn't really any reason to get involved. I do remember, however, talking to a few bookmakers from South Point after they changed their teaser pricing last year before football season. They all said their handle on teaser bets didn't change.


This is what fascinates me. Most people are going to bet teasers regardless of the price or the numbers. If you want to be in the minority, however, this is what you should do:


Find books that offer two-team, six-point teasers at -110.


Only tease sides that bring you through the two most important key numbers of three and seven. Four, six and two are actually the fourth-, fifth- and seventh-most landed on numbers in the NFL, respectively. A simple teaser on an underdog at +1.5 to +7.5 gets you ahead of five of the seven most important numbers in the league. Teasing a -7.5-point favorite to -1.5 gets the same job done. Look for these spots each week as acceptable options if you decide to get teaser action in.


Behind the Box Score


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts
Team A: 379 yards, 26 first downs and 40:20 time of possession
Team B: 209 yards, 14 first downs and 19:40 time of possession


Unfortunately, I was on the bad end of a game that the Eagles dominated in every way except the final score. Philadelphia ultimately won the game 20-16 over Indianapolis but failed to cover the -6 spread I had bet early last week.


The discrepancy in the final score versus the rest of the numbers in that game lies in two Carson Wentz turnovers inside his own 17-yard line. Both of these set the Colts up for easy field goal tries. Andrew Luck took care of the football on his end, and Indianapolis was able to stay within the number.


A final score of 20-10 may have otherwise looked more realistic given how well the Eagles played. Do not sleep on Philly. I recommended a bet on them to win the NFC East last week at -160 and still think it's a really good price if you're still able to grab something priced similarly. The Colts haven't been very good. They rank 28th in offensive efficiency and aren't a team I would put a ton of stock in despite their beating Washington on the road and leading both the Bengals and Eagles in the fourth quarter.


Weekly futures outlook

AFC Championship



The New England Patriots just got embarrassed in back-to-back weeks against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. The defense has a plethora of injuries that are clearly concerning, and the Tom Brady-led offense ranks 22nd in efficiency through three weeks. This is still my highest-rated team in the AFC.


Last year the Patriots had similar struggles early in the season and were a back-and-forth game against Deshaun Watson and the Texans from starting 1-3. They followed their 2-2 start with close wins in Tampa Bay and at the New York Jets. It took them some time to jell before they looked like New England of old. Sure, Brady is a year older and Bill Belichick always looks like he's annoyed, but the price on the Pats to win the AFC is +350 now. This is an extreme overreaction to these first three games. My projection has the Patriots winning the AFC 30.75 percent of the time, or a fair price of roughly +225. Belichick and Brady have been in the Super Bowl in eight of their 17 seasons together. I will take my shot on these guys to do it again at +350.