Best Week 3 NFL Eliminator picks

Mackenzie Kraemer
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Welcome to the 2018 Eliminator Challenge. The rules are simple: Pick one team every week. If that team wins, you move on to the next week. If that team loses, your entry is eliminated. The only caveat is that you cannot use the same team twice. You can find all the rules
here
.


To determine the best picks each week, I lean heavily upon ESPN's Football Power Index. For more on how FPI is calculated, click here and here. I also look at the pick percentages for each team on the ESPN Eliminator Challenge page to see which teams the majority of fans are picking.

This week, there is a simple choice. The Minnesota Vikings are the biggest favorites we've seen at any point in this season thus far in their game against the Buffalo Bills, according to FPI. That also means that the Vikings will be one of the most popular selections all season. Despite their certain popularity, the best path according to FPI will be to eat the chalk and take the Vikings this week. After all, the ultimate goal is to pick a winner, and the Vikings have the best chance to win by far.
Top Pick

Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo BillsHistory suggests this game is a near lock. The last 33 teams favored by 16.5 points have won outright, with the last loss coming in 1992 (Redskins at Cowboys). Minnesota is favored by 18.7 points by FPI, with a 90 percent chance to win. On the flip side, the Vikings are going to be one of the most-highly-picked teams all season, so it's tempting to fade them and root for the upset. They also host the Cardinals in Week 6, which is set to be the second-most lopsided game this season, so there will be another time to use them. FPI views using the Vikings this week as the safest path to advancing, followed by the Texans in Week 6 (hosting the Bills), so it's difficult not to pick the Vikings.

Line: Vikings -16.5
FPI chance to win: 90 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 58 percent selected
Other Options

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee TitansThe Jaguars could be a sneaky option this week. They are 77 percent favorites to win, according to FPI, the most they will be in any game this season. The Jaguars have won six straight home games, covering the spread in five of those games. Keep an eye on the injury report for this one, as the Titans were without several key players last week, including Marcus Mariota, Taylor Lewan and Jack Conklin. If the Titans are going to miss several starters like they did last week, the Jaguars become a more appealing pick.

Line: NL (as of Wednesday due to Marcus Mariota's status)
FPI chance to win: 77 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 5 percent selected
Baltimore Ravens vs Denver BroncosThe Ravens are only five-point favorites, but FPI gives them the second-best chance to win this week. While the Broncos are 2-0, both of those wins came at home against below-average teams. Denver has lost nine of its past 10 road games, straight up and against the spread, with seven of those losses coming by double digits. FPI views the Ravens as the fifth-best team in the league, while the Broncos are the sixth-worst.

Line: Ravens -5
FPI chance to win: 78 percent
Eliminator Challenge: 1 percent selected