Week 2 gambling lessons: Don't buy the Chiefs just yet

Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Our NFL betting lookahead reviews the most important things that happened during the weekend's games from a gambling perspective and how it will impact future games.

Join us inside as we evaluate teams we're buying and selling, discuss early line moves we agree with, give a couple futures bets and go inside the Vikings-Packers box score.
Portfolio checkup


In portfolio checkup, we explore which teams we're buying and selling, and why.

Buy: Tampa Bay BuccaneersRyan Fitzpatrick is the real deal. If you don't believe me, then Tampa fans can help you find the scoreboard that reads: "NFL's most efficient offense in 2018." The Saints and Eagles are obviously no pushovers either when it comes to the strength of their opponents at this point in the season. I have made adjustments to my numbers accordingly and am excited to see what is in store this season in the NFC South.

I loved offensive coordinator Todd Monken when he was at Oklahoma State and Southern Miss before taking his first real shot at the NFL in 2016-17 with Tampa Bay. It looks like things are coming together nicely for Monken since taking over sole OC duties before the start of the season.

Sell: Arizona CardinalsThis may be hard to believe, but the Cardinals have actually performed worse than the Buffalo Bills through two games. I was hoping the embarrassing home loss to Washington in the season-opener was a fluke, but they followed it up with Week 2's worst performance in a 34-0 loss to the Rams. While both Arizona and Buffalo are tied for the league's worst offense at 3.7 yards per play, the Cardinals are giving up 6.1 YPP to their opponents on the defensive side of the football for a net total of -2.4 YPP. Sam Bradford and Co. could wind up being the worst team in the NFL, and these are generally teams worth staying away from until we see signs and evidence of improvement.

Hold: Kansas City ChiefsI'm taking the wait-and-see approach with the Chiefs as we gather more data from their upcoming games. I even found myself looking all over town in Las Vegas this past Sunday for the best Chiefs Super Bowl number while I was caught up in their early 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh. I decided it probably wouldn't be smart to jump the gun and remembered Kansas City's similar start just a year ago (5-0) before cooling off (lost six of their next seven). Despite a blistering start offensively (first in DVOA) and quality wins over the Chargers and Steelers, Kansas City still has the league's worst defense through two weeks (32nd in DVOA).
Week 3 early line moves


Many professional bettors bet opening lines on Sunday evening and Monday morning. Here are some line moves I agree and disagree with.

Disagree: Eagles -6.5 to -6 vs. Indy

I was shocked to see the Eagles open up as 6.5-point favorites at home to the Colts and even get pushed down to -6 Monday morning at multiple shops. This is still an Indianapolis team that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency so far this season. I wrote Friday in my Colts/Redskins preview that final scores can often times be deceiving. Most of us didn't realize initially how poorly the Colts played in Week 1 because they had a lead early in the fourth quarter, but the Bengals actually gained 6.6 YPP on offense (same as the Chiefs, which was tied for the fourth-best output in Week 1).

Despite a win in Washington this past Sunday, the Colts were a net +0.0 yards per play. We know what this Eagles team is capable of, and it certainly is more than whatever the Redskins have to offer (sorry, fans). I mean this 6-point spread is the same number Indianapolis was getting this past week in Washington! I envision a bet coming on my end on Philadelphia at -6, especially with Carson Wentz cleared to play this week.

Agree: Chargers +7 to +6.5 at L.A. Rams

The Chargers opened +7 at the Rams in this make-believe cross-town rivalry. Most books are offering +6.5 now or juiced +7s at -120 if someone was interested in backing the underdog. I personally make the Chargers +5.7 so the move down off of a key number like 7 I believe is warranted. My projection accounts for a full home-field advantage for the Rams, which may be a little extreme in this instance. If you still have +7 -110s available on the Chargers, I think it is worth a bet.

Stay away: Chiefs -4.5 to -6 vs. 49ers

The Chiefs opened 4.5-point favorites at home to the 49ers and were immediately bet up to -6 or -6.5. My projections actually line up with the opener at 4.5, but you will be hard-pressed to find me lining up to bet against Kansas City again this week after its repeat performance in Pittsburgh. I want to gather more data from their upcoming games.

Handicapper's toolbox: Understanding the whole story


One of the toughest concepts for novice bettors to grasp is that a single-game sample or result isn't very significant in the grand scheme of things. It's why we see overreactions to Week 1 every year. To take that a step further, the actual final score of that single-game sample is even less significant.

The numbers within the box score paint a more significant picture and ultimately give us better pieces to the puzzle. I'm going to bring some of these outlier games to everyone's attention each week so that we don't find ourselves overreacting to a single-game result or final score as we make our betting decisions week-to-week.

"Behind the Box Score" will look past the final score and provide some of the results and numbers that actually do tell the correct story. This process is crucial in efficiently evaluating teams and making sound adjustments and projections for upcoming games.

Behind the Box Score: Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Kirk Cousins led the Vikings on a game-tying drive down eight points late in the fourth quarter to force overtime. However, three missed field goals later the final whistle was blown in a 29-29 tie. So do we throw this game out? The majority of the media will likely chalk this up as a tie and move on, but we are going to dive a little deeper.

Here's a comparison between the two teams:

Team A: 29 points, 480 yards and 7.1 YPP
Team B: 29 points, 351 yards and 5.0 YPP

Team A: 1 turnover, 8 penalties for 70 yards
Team B: 0 turnovers, 7 penalties for 54 yards and a blocked punt for TD

The Vikings -- Team A -- outgained the Packers by 2.1 yards every time they ran a play on Sunday. The most reliable predictor to scoring more points than your opponent is how many yards a team gains versus how many yards they allow. High-variance events like turnovers or special teams touchdowns play a factor, but are far more random.

It's worth recognizing that the Vikings were the better team on Sunday; don't let the 29-29 result fool you. To put a +2.1 YPP advantage into perspective, the Week 2 matchup between the Chargers and Bills that found Los Angeles coasting to a 31-20 win was only a +1.4 yards per play advantage to the winning team. Now a late drive that resulted in a garbage touchdown for Buffalo in the fourth-quarter skews this some, but up until that point the Chargers were nursing a +2.0 yard per play advantage with an 18-point lead. Meanwhile in Green Bay the Vikings found themselves actually playing from behind.

So what's the ultimate point? Be careful not to overrate this Packers team after this Week 2 result and their come-from-behind miracle against the Bears in the home opener. I also wouldn't overlook this Vikings team and brush them aside. They are going to be a legitimate contender come January 2019.
Weekly futures outlook


Here are a couple futures bets I think have value right now.

Super Bowl: Minnesota Vikings (10-1)This price was the same before the season. I think it had value then ... and I think it has value now. If anything, now we've gotten confirmation that Minnesota has a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who can lead it offensively at a level it hasn't had in the recent past. Putting up 425 yards through the air and four TDs are numbers Case Keenum and Sam Bradford only dream about at night.

Division: Eagles to win the NFC East (-160)I bet this at a slightly cheaper price before the season started, but at -160 there is still value here. The Giants are a disaster. The Cowboys have glaring issues. The Redskins are mediocre at best. This Eagles team is by far the best of the group and I would grab the -160 now before they pull away.