NFL Insiders predict: Week 1 upsets, fantasy flops, sleepers, more

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Our panel of NFL Insiders predict Week 1's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.

Plus: Which team will be the first to make a quarterback change? How will Odell Beckham Jr. fare against Jalen Ramsey? And which young quarterback would you start your franchise with?
What's your top upset pick for Week 1?


Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Chiefs (+3.5) over Chargers. I'll take the Chiefs on the road here given the offensive game plan I expect to see with Patrick Mahomes under center. Look for Andy Reid to dress this thing up, too. More movement and play-action, and the vertical throws that put stress on the Chargers' three-deep zone coverage. This is about execution for Mahomes and the Chiefs when they have the ball in scoring position to grab the AFC West win.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Falcons (+2) over Eagles. Yeah, I think Atlanta rolls in there Thursday night and knocks off the champs, just as Kansas City did to New England in last year's opener. The Eagles are in rough shape on offense from a health standpoint and might need a couple of weeks to get themselves together, while Atlanta looks healthy and primed for a big season.

Mina Kimes, senior writer: Bengals (+3) over Colts. I don't want to make too much of Andy Dalton's preseason performance -- the veteran quarterback finished with a league-best passer rating of 130.9 -- but he did look awfully sharp. Plus, the (recently enriched) pass rush should wreak havoc in Indianapolis.

Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Falcons (+2) over Eagles. Philly did such a great job planning around Nick Foles during the playoffs, but with opponents having a full offseason to prepare, I expect life without Carson Wentz (and even with him) to be tougher for the Eagles. On a side note, I don't know how the Colts are favored against the Bengals.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Seahawks (+3) over Broncos. There are a lot of reasons to be skeptical of Seattle this season -- Earl Thomas' absence, the evolving personnel on defense and injuries to K.J. Wright, among others -- but no team should overlook the Seahawks. With Russell Wilson quarterbacking the offense and Bobby Wagner the defense, this team will play hard each week.

It's Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Jalen Ramsey in Week 1. Predict OBJ's stat line.


Bowen: Six catches, 81 yards, 0 TDs on 10 targets. Beckham has the electric ability to take a simple slant route for 80 yards, and the Giants can bump him inside to work the seams when the Jags play zone coverage. But I'll stick with around 80 yards for OBJ in Week 1, because opportunities are limited when you line up against the Jacksonville D.

Graziano: Four catches, 68 yards, 0 TDs on eight targets. That's a compliment to Beckham, based on last year's numbers. In 19 games last season (counting the playoffs), opposing No. 1 wideouts averaged 3.8 catches for 52.3 yards per game against the Jaguars. If you take out the two Steelers games, in which Antonio Brown caught a total of 17 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns, the averages drop to 3.3 catches and 41.4 yards per game. I expect a big year out of Beckham, but I expect it to start in Week 2.

Kimes: Five catches, 70 yards, 0 TDs on seven targets. Jacksonville's defense is elite, but it did struggle at times to stop the run in 2017. Beckham should make a splash play or two (and not just against Ramsey), but I expect a Saquon Barkley-heavy game plan from new coach Pat Shurmur.

Sando: Six catches, 80 yards, 1 TD on 10 targets. Those figures represent the averages in each category for the 10 highest wide receiver figures against Jacksonville during the 2017 regular season. What did you want me to do, guess?

Yates: Five catches, 74 yards, 0 TDs on 11 targets. Mark it down, these will be his exact marks! More seriously, it's never easy going against the Jaguars. If any receiver has the chance to turn the ordinary into an extraordinary play, though, Beckham is the guy.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Bowen: Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers. Evans had just six receptions -- on 19 targets -- for only 68 yards in two games against the Saints' defense last season. I'm looking at the coverage ability of Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore in this matchup, along with defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's aggressive game plan, to limit the production of Evans in the Dome on Sunday.

Graziano: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. If you drafted him to be your starting quarterback, you'll eventually be happy about it, but I expect he'll find the going tough against Denver in Week 1 with Doug Baldwin banged up and the right side of his offensive line still not all the way together. I would have put Jimmy Garoppolo here, since I think he'll struggle against Minnesota's defense, but I'm not sure how many fantasy teams are starting him anyway.

Kimes: Allen Robinson, WR, Bears. Robinson had a quiet preseason, and I don't expect him to make a ton of noise right out the gate. While the Packers' secondary struggled last season, the group looks significantly better and deeper -- and I'm still in wait-and-see mode with second year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

Sando: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. The Cowboys have some issues to work through along their offensive line. They face Carolina, which did not allow an individual rusher to exceed 85 yards on the ground last season. (Then again, only two players exceeded 14 rushes in a game against the Panthers last season, and Elliott figures to get more than that.)

Yates: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. The Vikings' defense is one of the league's best. Finding a way to elude pressure will be a tremendous order for any quarterback facing Minnesota. While I view Jimmy G as a season-long starter in fantasy, I'd fade him in Week 1.

Which team will make a quarterback change first this season?


Bowen: Bills, by Week 4. Yes, Nathan Peterman was named the Bills' starter on Monday. But with a nasty three-game stretch against defenses of the Ravens, Chargers and Vikings to start the season, I expect Buffalo to turn over the ball to Josh Allen by the Week 4 game at Green Bay, if not sooner.

Graziano: Bills, by Week 2. Before the AJ McCarron trade, I thought the Bills had three guys who were going to start games for them this season, and I now think they have two. Peterman has no guarantee of week-to-week job security. The offensive line is a mess, and the receiver corps is a work in progress. Buffalo will mix and match at QB in 2018.

Kimes: Bills, by Week 4. The Bills' first three games are against teams whose defenses ranked fifth, seventh and first in weighted DVOA (which is adjusted to give more significance to recent performance). Peterman was the right choice to start behind a shaky offensive line, but it's more likely than not that he'll cede the job to Allen after the opening stretch.

Sando: Bills, by Week 3. Very few teams are candidates to make such a change. The Bills' situation appears least stable early.

Yates: Bills, by Week 4. What a brutal schedule to begin the season. Fans will be eyeing a quarterback change almost immediately, with a switch occurring in Week 4.

Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 1.


Bowen: Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions. Think of Golladay, who faces the Jets this weekend, as a WR3/Flex in deeper leagues. The second-year pro flashed in limited action last season with an average of 17.0 yards per catch. There is upside given his frame and deep-ball ability when the Lions bring three wide receiver personnel into the game on Monday night.

Graziano: Carlos Hyde, RB, Browns. I believe he will open the season as the Browns' starting running back and get a lot of opportunity in a run-heavy offense. The Browns face Pittsburgh in Week 1. The Steelers' defense is likely to have a hard time against the run, and grumpy Browns offensive coordinator Todd Haley has extra incentive to look good against his former employer.

Kimes: Tyler Higbee, TE, Rams. With Khalil Mack gone, I expect Rams quarterback Jared Goff to have a ton of time against a lackluster Raiders defense, so I like all of his weapons this week. The Raiders allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends last season.

Sando: Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers. I'd forgotten about Garcon catching six passes for 64 yards in a 2017 preseason game against the Vikings until a coach brought up how interesting it was to him that Kyle Shanahan had the 49ers ahead of Minnesota by a 14-0 count when the starters were still in the game. That doesn't make Garcon a great starting choice, but if ESPN's WR3 does more than anticipated, you won't be shocked.

Yates: James White, RB, Patriots. With no Julian Edelman for four weeks, the Patriots will have to lean on a variety of players to pick up the volume. Running backs Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead missed much of training camp with injuries, opening the door to remind us that White is one of the team's most reliable players. I expect him to have a substantial role against the Texans.

Fifteen teams will have a different starting QB in Week 1 than they did in Week 1 last season. Of those, who is the QB you'd most want on your team for the next five years?


Here's the full list: Sam Darnold; Ryan Tannehill; Nathan Peterman; Tyrod Taylor; Andrew Luck; Deshaun Watson; Case Keenum; Patrick Mahomes; Alex Smith; Nick Foles; Kirk Cousins; Mitchell Trubisky; Ryan Fitzpatrick; Jimmy Garoppolo; Sam Bradford

Bowen: Deshaun Watson, Texans. It's Watson's intangibles first. That's the leadership, toughness and energy he brings to the field. Now, mesh those traits with his dynamic skill set at the position. Give me that all day as a coach. Watson can be a star.

Graziano: Deshaun Watson, Texans. He just has everything you look for -- winning pedigree, success right out of the gate at the pro level, ability to make plays with his arm and his legs ... I'd cast my long-term lot with Watson over some of the other very strong choices in this group.

Kimes: Deshaun Watson, Texans. There are injury concerns with both him and Luck, but I'll go with the quarterback we've seen in action more recently. Through his first seven starts, Watson threw 19 touchdowns, the most of any rookie in NFL history. If his accuracy improves and he stays healthy, Watson should enter the ranks of the league's elite quarterbacks.

Sando: Andrew Luck, Colts. He has proved multiple times that he can take a bad team to the playoffs when healthy. Now that the injury concerns are subsiding, he should be good for the long haul.

Yates: Andrew Luck, Colts. I get it -- it's been a long time since we've seen Luck on the field for a regular-season game. But let's not look past just how compelling of a player he has already proved himself to be. Indy's season might not end in a trip to the playoffs, but this team will be far more competitive on offense.