QB Hope Index: Projecting the NFL's next franchise passers
Aaron Shcatz
ESPN INSIDER
As a rookie in 2016, Jared Goff had one of the worst quarterback seasons in recent NFL history. He averaged a minuscule 3.75 net yards per pass and threw only five touchdown passes in 205 attempts. In Football Outsiders' advanced stats, which go back to the 1986 season, Goff's passing DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) of minus-74.8 percent below average was the worst ever for a quarterback with at least 200 pass attempts.
Most fans wrote off Goff after his horrible rookie year. But the Football Outsiders QB Hope Index did not.
We introduced the QB Hope Index last year to look at what variables help determine the odds that a quarterback can become a long-term, successful NFL starter. The goal was to figure out when we needed the patience to let a starter develop. After how many years of bad play do we give up on a young quarterback, and how do we know not to give up too soon?
Last year, we gave Goff a QB Hope Index of 22 percent. Despite that awful rookie performance, Goff was still a No. 1 pick, and that's usually a player who develops more often than a lower-round pick. Goff was also a bit young for his class, turning 22 halfway through his rookie year. And he had been well-projected out of college by the Football Outsiders' QBASE college quarterback forecast.
Twenty-two percent is roughly 4:1 odds, and Goff's 4:1 shot hit big time in 2017. He nearly doubled his net yards per pass, at 7.24, and led all quarterbacks with 12.9 yards per completion. Football Outsiders' advanced stats ranked Goff fifth in pass value per play (DVOA) and sixth in total passing value DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement). And Goff's chance of a long career as an NFL starter based on the QB Hope Index has gone from 22 percent to 96 percent.
What follows are the QB Hope Index numbers for every drafted quarterback from the past three years who is currently on an NFL roster. The QB Hope Index accounts for draft position, on-field performance, and a player's roster status (i.e., if he's not starting, who is he sitting behind?). It also incorporates age and our QBASE college quarterback projections.
The formula changes from first year to second to third, as we gradually get to see these players perform on the NFL stage.
Class of 2017
The QB Hope Index loves passing touchdowns by rookies, so it loves Deshaun Watson and the 19 touchdowns he had in only seven games last season. The other two first-round picks from the Class of 2017 come out close to 50 percent, meaning their long-term futures are still close to a coin flip.
Of course, a quarterback's rookie performance will help predict the chances he becomes a successful NFL starter. But after one year in the league, draft position still plays a strong role in a young quarterback's forecast. Being chosen second overall keeps Mitchell Trubisky at more than 50 percent despite his rookie performance coming out below replacement level.
For Patrick Mahomes, there isn't much rookie performance to judge. Instead, the QB Hope Index is gauging Mahomes primarily on his draft position and his QBASE projection, which was the best in his class. However, Mahomes takes a hit from a variable that adjusts for the fact that passers from the offensively high-flying Pac-12 and Big 12 conferences generally develop into NFL starters less often.
Another variable that matters is age. Many of the quarterbacks who developed despite poor rookie seasons were particularly young. Goff, Alex Smith and Michael Vick were all 21-year-old rookies. This is a reason why 22-year-old DeShone Kizer ranks fourth in his class in the QB Hope Index despite a dismal rookie season when he finished last in DYAR.
Otherwise, when it comes to lower-round picks, a quarterback who didn't play at all as a rookie has a better chance of development than a rookie who was forced to play but was below average. The unknown is better than a small amount of negative evidence.
QB Hope Index: Class Of 2017
Player |
CHANCE OF BEING FRANCHISE QB |
Deshaun Watson, HOU |
81% |
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI |
52% |
Patrick Mahomes, KC |
44% |
DeShone Kizer, GB |
9% |
Joshua Dobbs, PIT |
8% |
Brad Kaaya, IND |
8% |
Chad Kelly, DEN |
8% |
Nathan Peterman, BUF |
5% |
C.J. Beathard, SF |
3% |
Davis Webb, NYG |
2% |
Class of 2016
Carson Wentz must be listed at 100 percent after a near-MVP season in his second year, right? Not quite. One of the surprising results of our QB Hope Index is that even quarterbacks who have been extraordinarily successful early on do not come out with a 100 percent chance of long-term success. The record of the recent past features a few quarterbacks who started their careers strong and then fizzled out. Robert Griffin III, of course, seemed destined for greatness after a strong rookie year. Josh Freeman had 25 touchdowns with only six interceptions in his second season, yet his career collapsed. This probably isn't the future for Wentz or Goff, but we can't ignore the possibility. So Goff comes out at 96 percent, and Wentz is right behind at 94 percent.
Dak Prescott, the rookie star of this class, has dropped slightly from 82 percent last year to 76 percent now. But the big disappearing act belongs to Paxton Lynch. Despite being a first-round pick, the QB Hope Index now rates him with just a 5 percent chance of developing into a long-term starter. Once a quarterback has been in the league for two seasons, his performance on the field is by far the most important factor in determining his chances of having a successful career as a starter. But the No. 2 factor after performance on the field is just being on the field. By this point, a high draft pick who will develop into a regular starter has either taken over as his team's starting quarterback or is specifically sitting on the bench behind a successful older QB. Denver signing a veteran quarterback like Case Keenum without giving Lynch a shot at the starting job is the clearest possible statement about Lynch's long-term career prognosis.
Lower-round quarterbacks who haven't played much will all have a QB Hope Index less than 10 percent after two years. Some of them will develop into starters, but without on-field performance numbers, it's hard to identify which quarterbacks are diamonds in the rough. We don't know who will turn out to be Tyrod Taylor or Matt Hasselbeck and who is just another J.T. O'Sullivan or Ricky Stanzi.
Our QBASE college projections and the Pac-12/Big 12 factor still play some role in the QB Hope Index for second-year quarterbacks, but the effect is much smaller than after Year 1.
QB Hope Index: Class Of 2016
Player |
CHANCE OF BEING FRANCHISE QB |
Jared Goff, LAR |
96% |
Carson Wentz, PHI |
94% |
Dak Prescott, DAL |
76% |
Jacoby Brissett, IND |
10% |
Brandon Allen, LAR |
8% |
Jeff Driskel, CIN |
8% |
Cardale Jones, LAC |
8% |
Jake Rudock, DET |
7% |
Nate Sudfeld, PHI |
7% |
Paxton Lynch, DEN |
5% |
Christian Hackenberg, PHI |
2% |
Kevin Hogan, WAS |
2% |
Connor Cook, OAK |
1% |
Cody Kessler, JAX |
1% |
Class of 2015
By three years in, we've got a pretty good idea of who will be a successful NFL starter. That's particularly true with the small quarterback class of 2015. The players who went No. 1 and No. 2 in the draft have started for three years and have played well. The other quarterbacks from later in that draft class have either not played at all or have played poorly.
One of those later quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian, has dropped more in the QB Hope Index over the past year than any other young passer. A seventh-round pick who became a surprise starter in his second year, Siemian was mediocre but not terrible in 2016. That year, he ranked 22nd in DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) among quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts. But last season, Siemian threw only 12 touchdowns with 14 interceptions, and he ranked 33rd out of 35 quarterbacks in DYAR. That dropped his chances of developing into a long-term starter from 34 percent to just 2 percent. Siemian's roster spot is in line with that projection, as he'll now back up Kirk Cousins in Minnesota instead of remaining the starter in Denver.
QB Hope Index: Class Of 2015