1. #1
    Hman
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    Re-Drafting The 1st Round Of The 2015 NFL Draft

    Re-drafting first round of 2015 NFL draft: 7 changes in top 10

    Pro Football Focus
    ESPN INSIDER



    With three years of data on the NFL draft class of 2015, it's time to look back at which picks we would keep and which ones should have been changed, using the benefit of hindsight, PFF grades and our new PFF value system, which adds another layer to our already-unique play-by-play grading.

    1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    Actual pick: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida StateNew Pick: WinstonDespite his three-game suspension to start the 2018 season, the first pick of the draft remains the same; Winston has been the most valuable player in the 2015 draft class to this point. He has been a volatile quarterback during his time with the Bucs, last season ranking second in percentage of positively graded throws, but also ranking 35th at avoiding turnover-worthy throws. That formula suggests Winston is capable of carrying a team to wins, but also can throw games away; and he profiles very similarly to Carson Palmer and Cam Newton, two quarterbacks who showed that they can piece together MVP-like seasons, as they both did in 2015.



    2. Tennessee Titans

    Actal pick: Marcus Mariota, QB, OregonNew Pick: MariotaTennessee sticks with their pick, as well, and despite the poor 2017 statistics, Mariota was PFF's No. 12-graded quarterback at 83.9 last season. The difference from stats to grade suggests that Mariota was not helped by his playmakers, and the data backs that up. He had the highest percentage of big-time throws that fell incomplete last year (due to his receiver) and despite ranking third in the NFL with 15 interceptions, Mariota ranked eighth at avoiding turnover-worthy plays, showing that he had some of the worst interception luck in the NFL.


    3. Jacksonville Jaguars

    Actual pick: Dante Fowler Jr., edge rusher, FloridaNew Pick: Vic Beasley Jr., edge rusher, ClemsonAt the time, the Jacksonville pass rush was a major question mark, and while Fowler finally tapped into his potential last season, Beasley has been a step above during their time in the NFL. And while he was not as good as his 16-sack 2016 season appeared on paper, Beasley still has the explosion and pass-rush set to get after the quarterback, with his 141 career pressures good for 30th in the NFL since 2015. Beasley's peaks are better than those of any other pass-rusher in the league, so we're banking on getting the most out of him in Jacksonville's attacking scheme.

    4. Oakland Raiders

    Actual pick: Amari Cooper, WR, AlabamaNew Pick: Stefon Diggs, WR, MarylandCooper has certainly had his moments with the Raiders, but he has been terribly inconsistent, especially with his 33 drops over the past three years. Diggs is an outstanding route runner, and he's excellent at the catch point, all adding up to a passer rating of 120.4 when targeted last season, second best in the NFL. He has graded at 88.4 over the past three years, best in the draft class and 10th best among receivers during that time.


    5. Washington Redskins

    Actual pick: Brandon Scherff, G, IowaNew Pick: Landon Collins, S, AlabamaIt's always risky to take a guard in the top-10, and while Scherff has been a solid player, his value is lacking when compared to an all-around defensive playmaker such as Collins. After a difficult rookie season, Collins has been outstanding over the past two years, leading all safeties with 86 stops (plays resulting in an offensive failure).


    6. New York Jets

    Actual pick: Leonard Williams, interior DL, USCNew Pick: WilliamsWilliams was viewed as one of the safer picks in the 2015 draft, and he has lived up to that reputation. He is strong in the run game, and he has been good as a pass-rusher (15 sacks, 47 QB hits, 92 hurries on 1,524 rushes) while playing 80 percent of the Jets' snaps in his three years.



    7. Chicago Bears

    Actual pick: Kevin White, WR, West VirginiaNew Pick: Marcus Peters, CB, WashingtonWhite has been limited to just 239 snaps over the past three years, while Peters has established himself as one of the best playmaking corners in the league. His aggressive style will lead to a few big plays, but Peters' ability to create turnovers and make plays on the ball has been unmatched since he has entered the league (21 interceptions and 34 pass breakups on 321 targets).


    8. Atlanta Falcons

    Actual pick: Vic Beasley Jr., edge rusher, ClemsonNew Pick: Trey Flowers, edge rusher, ArkansasWith Beasley now off the board, the Falcons turn to the next-best pass-rusher in the class in Flowers. Flowers was a fourth-rounder back in 2015, but PFF grades pointed to a first-round player, and he hasn't disappointed with grades of 80.9 and 87.8 (14th among edge defenders) over the past two years after a redshirt 2015 season.


    9. New York Giants

    Actual pick: Ereck Flowers, OT, MiamiNew Pick: Todd Gurley II, RB, GeorgiaFlowers has had his struggles, particularly in pass protection, and there is no other tackle worthy of the No. 9 pick. Gurley has had his ups and downs, but at his best, he can affect the game as a runner and as a receiver, and his presence in the Giants' backfield would have eased the burden on QB Eli Manning over the past three years. Gurley was the top-graded running back in the league last year at 92.0 overall.
    10. St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams

    Actual pick: Todd Gurley II, RB, GeorgiaNew Pick: David Johnson, RB, Northern IowaNow that Gurley is off the board, the Rams take Johnson, who provides a similar impact, particularly in the passing game. Johnson's 92.6 grade as a receiver in 2016 was the best in the league, and when healthy, he has become one of the NFL's best all-around running backs.


    11. Minnesota Vikings

    Actual pick: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan StateNew Pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConnWaynes has been solid, but his value has been more in line with a second-round player. Jones has played mostly safety, though he has brought great value to Dallas' back seven, due to his ability to match up with difficult tight ends and in the slot, where his 0.60 yards per cover snap ranked third in the NFL last season. Jones is moving back to cornerback this season to further increase that value and hopefully avoid some of the blown coverages that have marred his otherwise excellent work when playing man coverage.


    12. Cleveland Browns

    Actual pick: Danny Shelton, interior DL, WashingtonNew Pick: Grady Jarrett, interior DL, ClemsonShelton has been a strong run defender, but Cleveland shipped him off to New England after he underwhelmed as a pass-rusher. Jarrett had a first-round grade from PFF coming out of college, and he has lived up to that billing as a disruptive interior presence for the Falcons. He ranked 14th among interior defensive linemen last year with an 87.1 overall grade.


    13. New Orleans Saints

    Actual pick: Andrus Peat, G, StanfordNew Pick: Adrian Amos, S, Penn StateAmos broke out with the No. 2 grade among safeties last year (92.0), and the Saints have been piecing together their secondary over the past few years. He would be a perfect piece in that rebuild, as he has quietly been the 10th most valuable player in the class of 2015.


    14. Miami Dolphins

    Actual pick: DeVante Parker, WR, LouisvilleNew Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, WisconsinAnother running back comes off the board as Gordon fills a need for the Dolphins. He has been more consistent than Gurley, grading at 83.0 and 83.8 overall in each of the past two years. Last season, Gordon ranked second in the league with 48 missed tackles forced in the running game.


    15. San Diego/Los Angeles Chargers

    Actual pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, WisconsinNew Pick: Jordan Hicks, LB, TexasNow that Gordon is off the board, the Chargers add one of the most underrated players from the class of 2015 in Hicks. The linebacker has battled injuries, but when on the field, he has been outstanding in coverage, breaking up four passes, picking off seven and allowing a passer rating of only 71.3 into his coverage in his career (most linebackers allow 95.0-plus).
    16. Houston Texans

    Actual pick: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake ForestNew Pick: Ronald Darby, CB, Florida StateHouston filled a need with the addition of Johnson, but hindsight shows that Darby would have been a cleaner pick. Darby has improved his ability to make plays on the ball (24 pass breakups on 262 career targets) since entering the league, and his speed and athleticism allow him to stay with the shiftiest of route runners.


    17. San Francisco 49ers

    Actual pick: Arik Armstead, interior DL, OregonNew Pick: Danielle Hunter, edge rusher, LSUThe 49ers were playing an old-school 3-4 defense at the time, but Hunter would fit in nicely as a rushing outside linebacker. He has been strong in the run game for the Vikings while producing as a pass-rusher, with 27 sacks, 19 QB hits and 114 hurries on only 1,260 career attempts.


    18. Kansas City Chiefs

    Actual pick: Marcus Peters, CB, WashingtonNew Pick: Danny Shelton, interior DL, WashingtonDespite Shelton already having been traded, he has been a productive player, and his presence in the middle of the Kansas City defense would help the Chiefs' leaky run defense. He graded at 85.2 in 2016 and 81.5 last year, with most of his production coming in the run game.


    19. Cleveland Browns

    Actual pick: Cameron Erving, C, Florida StateNew Pick: Shaq Thompson, LB, WashingtonErving has struggled mightily (his best season grade is only 42.0), while Thompson has had his ups and downs, and his athleticism brings great flexibility to the back seven of any defense. Thompson has good range in the zone and the ability to match up against running backs in one-on-one coverage, and the Browns are still looking for more impact coverage players three years later. Thompson also has been excellent in the run game, ranking eighth in the NFL, with the lowest average depth of tackle since 2015 at 2.44.


    20. Philadelphia Eagles

    Actual pick: WR Nelson Agholor, WR, USCNew Pick: AgholorAfter a slow start, Agholor started to live up to his potential last season, finding a home in the slot. He graded at 80.4, and he led the league with eight touchdowns when lined up in the slot, while ranking third with 752 yards last season.


    21. Cincinnati Bengals

    Actual pick: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&MNew Pick: Frank Clark, edge rusher, MichiganLike the other top offensive tackles in this draft class, Ogbuehi has struggled in his three years. Clark had off-field issues, but putting those aside, he has been one of the best all-around edge defenders in the class. Cincinnati is just now starting to fix their edge-rush issues, but Clark would have been a great addition at the time, notching 26 sacks, 19 QB hits and 103 hurries on 1,207 career rushes.

    22. Pittsburgh Steelers

    Actual pick: Bud Dupree, edge rusher, KentuckyNew Pick: Malcom Brown, interior DL, TexasWhile Dupree's 15 career sacks don't scream "bust," he has been one of the worst pass-rushers in the league on a per-snap basis since 2015, as he has only 68 other pressures on 946 career rushes. Brown is a cleaner player and a good fit for Pittsburgh's three-man front, as he can line up in multiple roles and stand firm against the run, having graded above 80.0 in each of the past three seasons.


    23. Denver Broncos

    Actual pick: Shane Ray, edge rusher, MissouriNew Pick: Duke Johnson Jr., RB, MiamiRay has had his moments, though he has been banged up and inconsistent even when healthy. Johnson has been one of the most valuable players in the class, as he is a dynamic receiving weapon out of the backfield, grading at 90.9 as a receiver last season, good for second in the league.


    24. Arizona Cardinals

    Actual pick: D.J. Humphries, OT, FloridaNew Pick: Ali Marpet, C/G, HobartHumphries has continued the trend of struggling offensive tackles, while Marpet has been excellent playing various roles for the Bucs. Marpet made the transition nicely from small school to the NFL, and he has been one of the best offensive linemen in the class, with grades of 84.9 in 2016 and 79.0 last year.


    25. Carolina Panthers

    Actual pick: Shaq Thompson, LB, WashingtonNew Pick: DeVante Parker, WR, LouisvilleThe Panthers are still looking for receivers, and Parker's size and contested-catch skills are a nice fit for QB Cam Newton. Parker hasn't lived up to the big hype coming out of Louisville, but he's still a top-32 player in this class -- with his best year coming in 2016, when he posted an 81.1 overall grade.


    26. Baltimore Ravens

    Actual pick: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCFNew Pick: Amari Cooper, WR, AlabamaIt's difficult to slot Cooper this low in the first round, as his peaks have been of top-10 quality, but the fluctuations in production combined with more drops than any receiver in the league since 2015 make him less of a slam dunk than he seemed at the time. Still, he would bring great value to a Ravens offense that has had one of the worst group of playmakers in the league over the past few years. Cooper has converted 121 first downs in his career, 46 more than the next-closest Ravens receiver during that time (Mike Wallace).


    27. Dallas Cowboys

    Actual pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConnNew Pick: Daryl Williams, OT, OklahomaJones is off the board, and the Cowboys are feeling good about their offensive line, but Williams adds great depth and an eventual replacement for Doug Free at right tackle. Williams took a few years to get going, but he had a breakout 2017 season, grading at 86.5 overall and earning first-team right tackle honors at PFF.

    28. Detroit Lions

    Actual pick: Laken Tomlinson, G, DukeNew Pick: Brandon Scherff, G, IowaScherff might not have been good value in the top 10, but he is a nice pick here for the Lions, who already have given up on Tomlinson. Scherff has improved every year, grading at 78.6 in 2015, 81.7 in 2016 and 83.2 last season.


    29. Indianapolis Colts

    Actual pick: Phillip Dorsett, WR, MiamiNew Pick: Tyler Lockett, WR, Kansas StateDorsett was a risky pick at the time, as the Colts were banking on his deep speed to add a new downfield element to their offense. It never panned out. But Lockett had the top PFF grade among receivers the year he came out, and he has the third-highest grade among receivers in the draft class in their three years. Lockett has only eight drops on 149 catchable targets in his career.


    30. Green Bay Packers

    Actual pick: Damarious Randall, CB/S, Arizona StateNew Pick: David Irving, interior DL, IowaIrving has quietly been one of the best players in the class of 2015, and he has created pressure from the interior at a high rate. He would have been a good fit for the Packers' 3-4 scheme at the time, as he has 80 career pressures on only 734 rushes.


    31. New Orleans Saints

    Actual pick: Stephone Anthony, LB, ClemsonNew Pick: Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi StateMcKinney looked like a run-stuffing thumper coming out, and he has been that and a bit more for the Texans. The Saints continue to search for impact linebackers, as Anthony struggled mightily and others have come and gone with little success. McKinney can play the run (his 82.0 grade ranks 13th in the NFL since 2015) and hold his own in coverage, if you can limit his one-on-one interactions with running backs.


    32. New England Patriots

    Actual pick: Malcom Brown, interior DL, TexasNew Pick: Jamison Crowder, WR, DukeWith Brown off the board, the Patriots take one of the best slot receivers in the class in Crowder. New England can certainly find a way to get him involved in its offense, despite having good receiver depth over the past few years. Crowder ranked 10th with 535 yards from the slot last season.

  2. #2
    Hman
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    OK WTH

    If we're re-evaluating then why is Winston still #1?!?

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