"The secret of victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious." - Mike Lombardi (via) Marcus Aurelius


Another Monday night has come and gone and the question as always is - what have we learned from this weekend ?? Well, to be honest - we are not exactly sure. We still don't even know what a catch is in the NFL. We clearly don't know what pass interference is. Are we even sure we understand the tie breaker rule for the NFL playoffs ?? All of this is getting so confusing. All I know is we made money betting NFL all weekend. So it's time to look back at what we learned from a sports bettors perspective - and how we can improve.




New England wins the AFC East thanks to a horrendous 'no-catch' call in Pittsburgh. You can basically sum up this game with a quote from Mike Holmgren - and all the controversy surrounding it - "If twenty guys are in a bar and think it's a [fumble] than it's a [fumble]." If you were watching this game without sound at a bar, or even at home in the background of your Sunday afternoon - you would have thought - FOR SURE the Steelers were in the position to pull ahead and put the fatal blow to the Pats.

However, what you wouldn't have caught [get it] is the commotion caused by Pittsburgh TE Jesse James' last minute reception while going into the end zone. The Steelers were denied a late game TD by one of the most horrific calls I have seen this season - and a whole lot of bettors got their money back or worse. What I want to know is, what defines "being in control of the ball." and what defines 'crossing the plane' - I am no expert here, but it seems to me that the NFL is seemingly trying to get players away from making the 'smart football play'.

https://youtu.be/_7jXe7JMPu0?t=6m44s

It seems to me they [the NFL] is making it harder for players to receive touchdown passes in the end-zone, or by catching the ball while crossing the plane into the end zone simultaneously. [Unless you land with one of your butt-cheeks in play - then it's a touch down.]

Good Catch


Bad Catch.



Now, let's just say this play happened at the 10 yard line and not the goal-line, it would more than likely be a good catch and would set up the Steelers for another play. That brings us to my next point - COACHES HAVE TO STOP CALLING PASS PLAYS AT THE GOAL LINE.





No receiver in motion is going to catch a ball uncontested while entering the plane of the end-zone. That era of football is now over - there is very little space in the secondary on goal line plays - we have seen it cause teams to suffer massive failure when running these types of plays in the past - you just don't do it. It is the wrong play call.

Big Ben Agrees.
What a WILD ending. pic.twitter.com/SAS8ZpJicS
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) December 18, 2017
Ben Roethlisberger says there was a difference of opinion on #Steelers final play. "It wasn't a fake spike. I was yelling 'clock it' b/c I felt that was the thing to do, to clock it and get yourself one play. And it came from the sideline: 'Don't clock it, don't clock it.'"
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) December 18, 2017
Ben Roethlisberger continued: "Well, at that time I'm already - everyone thinks it's clocked, so you don't have time to try and get everyone lined up... Eli saw and he ran kind of a quick slant in there and at that time you just gotta try to make a play."
— Aditi Kinkhabwala (@AKinkhabwala) December 18, 2017
So now - the Steelers, who were the clear cut - better team - in this game, lose to the Patriots, and also give up the top spot in the AFC to the Pats and set up the almost ordained re-match in the AFC championship game. All because of a horrible rule that the NFL competition committee needs to address.


YOU LOSE DEREK.



We saw two games come down to these wonky end-zone rules this weekend, and although Oakland was not the better team vs Dallas - we can all agree Pittsburgh deserved a better fate and undoubtedly deserved the win here. However I will say this - if Belichick is on the Steelers, and Tomlin on the Patriots. The Steelers win that game and don't make that kind of play in the red-zone.





What also gets completely over shadowed in the controversy of the Jesse James no-catch call, is that Rob Gronkowski played - in my opinion, the greatest game of his career. The guy is just unstoppable and as a TE is one of the most dangerous receivers I have ever seen. If the Patriots don't have Gronk - they are a completely different team, ask the Miami Dolphins.

Watch these highlights.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMXeLqj_dhc

Moving on.

What we also saw this weekend was the very long overdue funeral of the Seattle Seahawks. We all collectively watched the wheels come off the Seattle Seahawks first hand yesterday. Sorry Seattle fans but the streak is over and the myth of your teams' above average home field advantage has been busted. So take that 3.5 off the board folks. I might even down grade their home field to a 2.5. That's right.





If Pete Carroll doesn't soon realize the Seahawks are not a sustainable team with Russel Wilson being their leading rusher and only throwing 15 passes per game; Seattle will continue their rapid decline and will be coming back down to earth from their handful of successful seasons. The Pete Carroll era is over.




The Rams however, are a different story. LA made a statement all over the Seahawk's face on Sunday. The Rams are a poised team and are looking to make an impact in the playoffs in 2018; and don't look now, but if someone doesn't figure out how to stop the rejuvenated Todd Gurley and the Ram's running game - an LA Ram might end up MVP by the end of the season. Plus, an LA football team could be playing in the Super Bowl come February. Get used to that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQk6...feature=onebox

It took a bit of time, but we did learn a lesson from the Green Bay / Carolina game. That lesson was - the Aaron Rodgers excitement was short lived - now it's time to bring back Hundley. It was clear the Carolina Panthers were putting extra pressure on Rodgers from the get go. The blits was going all day and the Packers had very little in their arsenal to defend Aaron Rodgers from the defense of the Carolina Panthers. Rodgers took a number of big hits in the game and threw 3 picks. The Carolina defense had a number of big plays including Julius Peppers' 10th sack of the season.




What it looked like to me was the Packers were forcing the "Aaron Rodgers is back" narrative and tweaked their offense to fit his style of play and that threw them off - they played so much better as a team without Rodgers. Then, as soon as they don't have to rely on their team play because of their star QB returning - they reverted back to the old Packers before AR got hurt and it stunted their progress. Oh well - there's always next year cheese heads.




Another lesson we learned this weekend - if you are an Eagles fan, you were pleased to find out that the season might not actually be over after all. Nick Foles played well in a comeback game vs the disintegrating Giants. We all know how badly Eagles nation would have went into a panic if the Giants beat the Eagles - and we all felt the collective sigh of relief from Eagles fans once Philly came back from a 20-6 deficit. Don't call off the parade yet Eagles fan. That route is still hot with Foles behind the wheel. - And then you woke up.




I'm sorry but you don't go in - as a Super Bowl contender - against a 2-11 team and go down 20-6 in the first half. That's not what true contenders do. Eli looked good but c'mon - Foles threw 4 touch downs playing a defense he should have gotten 8 touch downs against. If the Eagles want to reignite the fans and really put a glimmer of hope into their chances going into the playoffs - they need to get off to a better start in their next two games, or else it's going to be a big let down in Philadelphia.

Rapid Fire





Some quick recaps. The Chiefs proved they are still the Chiefs on Saturday, not out of contention - but still barely treading water. The Chargers on the other hand, well they went ahead and proved who they were as well - the measly ol' less than average Chargers.




The Jags put on a show against the Houston Texans who I almost feel bad for in these last few weeks of the season. If the Jags end up against the Patriots in the playoffs - look out Pats fans, that Jacksonville D-line is mean and can break inside the pocket on a regular basis. It is a match up Belichick will want to avoid - I am sure.




The Vikings massacred the Bengals who are a shell of the team they once were at the beginning of the season. The Vikings look like the real deal going into the playoffs. The Browns continue to be the Browns and allowed the Baltimore Ravens' dreams of making the playoffs to continue.




Handsome Jimmy G led the 9ers to a win against and the Titans. Marcus Mariota is regressing very fast and I am just licking my chops waiting for the chance to bet against him in the wild card round.

The Rugged Edge

There were a few - must remember points - that we must not overlook coming out of WK 15 of the NFL season.


Your Power Ranking is lying to you.


Yup, after all it's done for you throughout the season. The time has finally come. Your power ranking is cheating on you. But don't worry - I have the secrets to get your power ranking and yourself back on the right track - you'll be spending new years evening together and kissing at midnight in no time.




For real though. It isn't a laughing matter. By this point of the season a lot of volatility has occurred in regards to the statistical data we analyze when we make our power rankings. Statistics like the Football Outsiders' DVOA, Net Yards Per Play, Yards Per Point and Yards Per Game are all not true prediction indicators any more because of injuries, motivation and personnel changes. Anyone who had Houston +11.5 this week knows exactly what i'm talking about. You have to adjust your numbers based on the changes made to the team. It seems elementary to even mention - but we all get stuck in our ways and you can hurt yourself by doing so, if you end up 'going to the well' too many times.




DeShaun Watson no longer plays on the Texans, the team the Texans were 6 weeks ago is the furthest thing from the team they are now. Don't let the numbers lie to you. Because they will. Without any remorse.


Stop betting value-less parlays.




I have to admit, time and time again I become a victim of the parlay let down. Time and time again I think I have shaped the perfect combo bet, the perfect teaser or the perfect straight-up money line parlays. Let me tell you right now. It is not sustainable.


On the Against All Odds podcast a few weeks ago - The Ringer's Cousin Sal had on one of the modern legends of Vegas on his show. The founder of pregame.com - RJ Bell. In the podcast, Sal confesses to RJ his love for the straight-up money line parlay and how (mostly in college football or basketball) he will combo up a whole bunch of big money line favorites and get it to +100, take off the rubber band and get down large on it.
The problem is that this strategy is completely unsustainable. Let me tell you why.
As RJ explains in the podcast with Cousin Sal - there is a metric that professional bettors use called EV - Expected Value.


The expected value is also known as the expectation, mathematical expectation, EV, average, mean value, mean, or first moment. More practically, the expected value of a discrete random variable is the probability-weighted average of all possible values.
Source: Wiki
What this means is very simple when you look at it through a financial perspective. If one single bet is not profitable - than no combination of that bet and any other bet will make it profitable. Meaning - if you aren't able to honestly say you would bet each one of your picks in the combo parlay bet you are making - by itself, and be able to make money off of it in a sustainable manner. Than you are better off not betting at all. You are better off simply handing the bookie your money without even making a wager - because that way at least you're not under the impression 'you almost had it.' because you were one off on a 5 team parlay.



The facts are simple. One outcome is always more likely to occur than a combination of outcomes. One pick is always better than a combination of two picks. The only time I would ever suggest making a parlay, is by playing small point teasers to get yourself within the Vegas zone (2.5 instead of 3, 6.5 instead of 7, 9.5 instead of 10, etc) - OR - when you have two outcomes that by themselves are profitable. If you are going to bet two pick em's and raise your odds from -110 to +180, do it. If you are going to bet two -125 ML favs to get to +150 - do it, but any time you get up past -200, you are getting no value for your combination - and you are basically boxing yourself out of profits.



When it comes down to it - growing a little bit of balls for once and taking a side instead of just grabbing the money line - will pay off in the long run. You are leaving money on the table. That is another point...

Stop Leaving Money On The Table

To reiterate from the previous point - if you are being a wuss and not taking the sides or totals you lean or like, and instead; combining it with another side or total you lean or like - if one of them loses and one wins - you lose. This is not how you make money as a gambler. True professionals take shots at these -110 odds because you are raising your success rate immensely when you bet at -110 odds. If you are betting single wagers at -110, you only need to be landing roughly 55% of your picks to be profitable. If you are making parlays and teasers at -125, and some of your picks lose - while the pick they are combined with win - you are leaving money on the table. You are better off taking both single wagers and if one wins and one loses, you're down -0.09 of a unit instead of down a full unit. That's what smart gambling and odd selection is all about. So stop being a wuss. No real handicapper with a higher than average winning pick percentage is going to tell you they've made money by being conservative with their bets. If anything, taking long shots every once in a while and being confident in your ability to pick a winner is how you make money. If you can't do that - then go back to the drawing board.





There is a big difference between being conservative and being discipline. Being discipline means not betting on emotion or outside of your unit range. Being conservative means being a wuss and not taking shots at the games you lean or like. That is money being left on the table that you will never back. The worst thing that could happen as a gambler is that you become a great handicapper - find a winning edge on games, using static analysis and advanced metrics - and yet you still can't make profits because you are too much of a wuss to make the plays. It all comes down to bet size appropriation and not over betting or under betting the edge you are creating. That is how the pros bet.



Most trends are meaningless - unless the line doesn't account for it.

So your power rating is a big mess because of all the volatility in the league, I know - she hurt me to. I get it. But listen, we can get through this together. There are some very big - proven trends in the NFL that are going to keep us at to our winnings ways. Trends like dome teams on the road in December. That means bet against the Lions, the Cardinals, the Vikings, the Texans and the Saints if they are playing in cold weather on the road. Also, the better defense getting points - a beautiful trend to follow this late in the season. Keep in mind this only works - and these trends only mean anything at all if the line doesn't account for the trend in question. This is why you have to get creative and find unique - but relevant trends that are just more than goofy numbers. (See: Why sports betting trends are useless)

For instance: West coast teams playing night games. In that same podcast with RJ Bell and Cousin Sal, RJ refers to this trend as one that is not usually accounted for in the line. When west coast teams play prime time games at home vs eastern teams, their opponent is playing three hours past their regular prime time game time. Most prime time games on the west coast are played at 5:30pm PST, which is 830pm EST. - by the end of the game the opponent's body clock is pushing 11:30pm EST - while the west coast team is still playing at a relatively early time for their body clock. This is a factor that is not completely accounted for when the odds makers make the line.


Also: The dream crusher trend. This is a trend that depends on what you define exactly as 'out of contention' and what you define exactly as 'needing a win' - however, a proven trend is: out of contention teams who have already played and lost to the favorite - at home, in the rematch - against a team still in contention in a must win game for the favorite. Look at Miami vs New England from week 14 - that was a go to pick because of this trend. Mind you Gronk was out, but whatever. Remember recreational bettors bet teams, professional bettors bet numbers. Don't get caught up betting on emotion come Sunday because more times than not you're gonna get burned.



Now let's go into week 16 with a smarter and more fearless outlook.
See you then. - almac, spark sports.

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