[aljack]

Spark’s Sports brings you the Math Man for another edition of my leans and likes – we are here to make you money using statistical analysis and advanced metrics – and believe me; my two signature NFL metrics are hot as hell right now. My score predictor was off on the Colts ML and spread picks, but we still hit on that under by the skin of our teeth. Also, just to make things interesting the power rating system picked up the slack and called the Broncos ATS giving both sets of metrics a good foreground to work with going into the weekend games.



Looking back…
Since Spark Sports brought Math Man into the fray in Week 13 – we have been on a smoldering run. It just goes to show you that the numbers don’t lie and statistics almost always hold the key to the handicap – as long as it’s not snowing.

Math Man’s NFL Spark Score Predictor – Since Week 13

67.27%

37

18

18.07u

180.70% ROI

Math Man’s NFL Spark Power Rating – Since Week 13

70.00%

21

9

10.90u

109.00% ROI

I hope you all learned from reading those numbers how serious you should be taking the Math Man. Now as for looking ahead – it is important that we gather as much information as possible before looking at the numbers. Finding out your play is more than just adding 1’s and 0’s together. There is always an aspect of handicapping that can not be completely explained away by solely relying just on numbers, statistics and trends. If you know the game – and also know the numbers – you raise your chances of winning. So let’s dive in…

What we learned from Week 14:


First of all, we learned by hook or by crook, or by snowstorm – the Buffalo Bills are going to once again lead their fans down the dark tunnel of unnecessary optimism – only to let them down in the final game of the season – snatching away their hopes for a playoff birth in the 21st century. The Bills (7-6) sit in the AFC’s 6 seed right now – with the Ravens (7-6), Chargers (7-6) and heck even the Raiders (6-7) and Dolphins (6-7) nipping at their heels. But don’t worry Bills’ fans – this week is still looking good for you. I am not seeing the Dolphins pulling off the dream crusher against you – and I can’t see the Chargers beating Kansas City this weekend (hint hint) Plus, when handsome Jimmy and the 9ers beat the Titans. You won’t have much to worry about, besides maybe the Ravens – who – based on everything I have ever seen in NFL football – will probably break your heart on the last day of the regular season – they’ll probably make the playoffs, and make our dreams of watching a decent first round of games in the post-season – go under the porch and die for another year. But hey, that’s what I was saying about optimism – it’s a dark, lonely, uncertain, tunnel.

As for the NFC – if this isn’t the definition of a log jam – than I don’t know what is. Somehow the dumpster fire that is the Atlanta Falcons are still in playoff contention, but based on my predictions – that won’t last very long. Seattle plays a must-win against the Super Bowl contending LA Rams this week. A win here for the Seahawks would more than likely see them jumping up to the 5 seed, and creating an absolutely disaster scenario for the Rams – who would be facing the final weeks of the season on the fringe of not making the playoffs in the six seed. More than likely – in my opinion, the Panthers win, the Saints win and the Falcons lose (that’s right). This scenario would have the Rams in the 6th spot at (9-5), Seattle (9-5) #5, Carolina (10-4) #4 and New Orleans (10-4) #3.

So with all that in mind – it might be a good idea to tune into the Seahawks/Rams game on Sunday if you’re a Atlanta Falcons fan. Basically a Seattle win puts the Falcons in a must win situation against Tampa and then it also puts them in dire straights against the Saints in Week 16 – as the Rams probably coast to a 2-0 week 16 & 17.
In shorter terms – this week is shaping up to be rough for one of the two most recent Super Bowl choke artists.

To make matters worse for you Falcons’ fans – I like the Bucs on Monday.
Let’s look at the numbers.


My look ahead leans and likes (shared on twitter) were based on the consensus line provided by Covers.com, however seeing as there is games going on a day earlier this week – I will be providing these numbers using the spread from our local bookmaker at SportsInteraction.com.
These are the numbers available as of 2am EST – Saturday December 16th.
As well – all of the HFA ratings are based on Steve Fezzik’s NFL power ratingthat can be found on the PreGame.com forum under the name Fezzik’s Focus.

It is also key to mention the customized metric that we’ve started using at Spark Sports – the metric is known as IV (Interval Value) – this is a metric that can be used when weighing a number of picks against a score predictor machine or a power rating. The higher the IV the higher the pick should be weighted – or the higher up on the list a pick should be, as compared to which one is more actionable or playable than the others. This is also how I have been deciding what my best bet is on most of my cheat sheets.
IV = Interval Value


Math Man’s NFL Spark Score Predictor – Week 15

Math Man’s NFL Spark Power Rating – Week 15



Let’s start with the Saturday games.



We have two sides that are almost the highest weighted IV picks for the entire weekend. One of these sides is the Lions -5.5, the spark score predictor has Detroit crushing the Bears by a score of 28-14. A 14.6 point difference – versus a spread of 5.5 equals the IV value you see of 9.1. This would probably be my best bet for Saturday – however, the metrics used in my spark power rating disagrees with the Lions -5.5 pick and is on the other side with the Bears +5.5 – The spark power rating has the Lions beating the Bears by less than a field goal. Detroit on paper winning by 2.5 minus the 5.5 point spread equals an IV of 3. Because of this, I am more than likely staying away from the Saturday afternoon game. However, if you’re gonna put a gun to my head – Detroit needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I could see them going up double digits here and keeping their foot on the gas. Chicago is on their way out. John Fox is on his way out. The team is probably not motivated at all with the substitute teacher effect here, there is a possibility the Bears have simply given up. The more that I think about it. I lean Lions -5.5

Math Man Leans: Lions -5.5 (-110) (9.1 IV)


Saturday: Leans, Likes & Best Bets


This one is a no-brainer, Kansas City takes on the LA Chargers in a prime time December Saturday night game – The Chiefs are currently in the playoffs, the Chargers are not. This game means alot to both teams, because of that I am expecting a shootout. The total for this game is at 46 – the spark score predictor, which has enjoyed an excellent run over the past two weeks going 20-6, (76.9%) +12.20u, +122.00% ROI – has the Chiefs/Chargers at a total of 48.1 – that gives you an IV of 2.1 – because of that I like the over on this one.

Math Man Likes: KC/LAC O46 (-110)(2.1 IV)

Now for the pick I love: One of the metrics the spark score predictor uses is the stat Yards Per Point. This stat values the average amount of offensive yards gained per offensive points scored. Usually this stat is a good indicator of pace and efficiency for each offense. The natural companion to this stat when using it as a prediction indicator metric is Yards Per Game. If you divide the average yards per game by the average yards per point – you will get a rough indication of what the score is for each team.

This stat is tricky and works best when you are dealing with teams that have had little volatility over a season. For instance, this stat would be a bad one to use as a prediction indicator if you were the Houston Texans because of the amount of difference there is between their team’s play when DeShaun Watson was playing versus when Tom Savage is playing. Some teams have what I like to call ‘cushioned numbers’ that are the result of factors beyond anything mathematics can quantify. There is also other factors that can fudge the YPP/YPG system – like a snow storm, or a mid-game injury of a key player. That is why it is very important to look into all the factors beyond the statistics and trends before taking a side when handicapping. Math is on paper – football is on a field.
That brings us to my best bet of Saturday night.

Saturday Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +1 (-110) (9.4 IV)


The Chiefs have a total of 1.6 less yards per point than the Chargers and only get about a yard less than them per game. What does that even mean ?? Well, it means that the KC offense is more efficient with that 1.6 yards than the Chargers are. In the end that is a very marginal difference that could mean pretty much nothing when picking a winner, but based on my record when using this system – it may mean more than just that. As for the spark power rating – it doesn’t see much of a difference than the score predictor does. The Chiefs and the Chargers have almost identical net yards per play statistics over the season. This means that more than likely, if these teams played on a neutral field – the spread would probably be pick em’; so why are the Chargers favored ??

The Chiefs are at home – the Chiefs have a clear home field advantage this time of year – but yet the Chargers are still favored. Even if it’s just a single point, it still seems like the wrong number here. Before adding any HFA in the mix; the Chiefs are still about 3 points better than the Chargers in my opinion. So, after you add in the obvious HFA – you have 6 points of difference between these two teams. So what is the catch ?? Both teams should be motivated, both teams are playing for their playoff lives. You could argue that the Chiefs could possibly afford a loss and still make the post-season and the Chargers can’t. But if you look at the standings again there isn’t much room for the Chiefs to fall – especially if Buffalo is still in the hunt. This line doesn’t make sense to me. The Chiefs should be favored – and not by just 1 point.

Let’s take advantage of what seems like a mis-grading of the Chiefs. Let’s also take advantage of a possible bias against the Chiefs because of how poorly they’ve played over the past few weeks. The market may be forgetting that this is Andy Reid we are talking about – in December – in the cold – at home – vs Phillip Rivers.

That may be all that needs to be said here. Take the Chiefs +1


Let’s Get Into The Real Action – Rapid Fire
Green Bay @ Carolina (-3)

Aaron Rodgers in a must win game his first game back since breaking his shoulder a number of weeks ago. Be very careful with this one. Some sources in the league are saying that Rodgers was on the IR a bit longer than expecting – meaning that he may be upwards of 90-95% health wise. We saw him coaching Brett Hundley in the game against the Browns. He probably had reps in before that game in-case anything dire happened. If Rodgers is even close to 100% it is hard to bet against him in a must win game.
If you do have Green Bay here – you gotta be even just a little bit worried about the Packers having back to back overtime games – they could be a little tired after both of those emotional games. However when it comes to must win games. Rodgers is the guy you want holding the football in this scenario.
The final thought on the Panthers is this – Chris McCaffrey and Jonathon Stewart are back and healthy for the Panthers. That means no more Cam Newton being the leading rusher for the team. This is a huge advantage for the Panthers as their success has basically depended on their health. If Newton has options to run the ball – they turn that into success.
Carolina has a ground and pound game that could take it’s toll on Rodgers as the game goes on. If that is the case and the Carolina defense gives Rodgers very little room to work with – than the Panthers have the ability to get the W in this game and end the Packers hopes for the playoffs. I lean Panthers here.

Math Man Lean: Carolina Panthers -3 (-110) (3.2 IV)



New York Jets @ New Orleans (-15.5)


If this pick is at 16, I am taking the Jets. If it is at 15, I am taking the Saints. The 15.5 puts me right on the fence. I am staying away from this one unless a significant line move occurs at post time. Otherwise, I advise putting your money else where come Sunday afternoon.
Baltimore @ Cleveland (+7.5)


I think this is a special game for the Browns. If they can compete, possibly create a possibility of crushing Baltimore’s dreams, cover the spread and or win outright – it would be a considered a successful day of work for them. If there is any weather issues at all here – I would take Cleveland.

Let’s all flash back to last week. The Browns had the Packers on the brink of playoff elimination. They got in trouble late with some bad decisions by Kaiser. If Cleveland can clean up those bad calls and take care of the ball when they have possession of it. I think the Ravens will be in trouble. Even if the Browns are in it at the end and some bad play call or QB decision ends up screwing them like it did last week; The big difference here is the 7.5 pts instead of the 3.5, a blown overtime can only amount to 6 points. A 6 point loss by Cleveland is definitely a cover. Call me crazy, but I don’t think this is a bad idea. Flacco is not a good QB. I think the Browns can cover +7.5 here. Take the Browns.

Math Man Likes: Cleveland +7.5 (2.3 IV)


New England @ Pittsburgh (+3)

If betting the Browns isn’t your thing. Then my suggestion is to take their prettier friend with more prospects – The Steelers.

The Pats did not look good vs the Dolphins. Belichick wasn’t himself, Brady wasn’t himself. The whole team wasn’t themselves – besides their less than mediocre defense. The Steelers are going to be able to isolate New England’s poor defense probably better than any team the Pats have played all season. Even with Gronk back – I still see this coming down to the final play of the game – and if you’re giving me +3 on the Steelers. I am taking a shot with a chance at a refund if the Pats pull out the 3 point win. Because of that – I like the Steelers here. Back the black and yellow.


Math Man Likes: Steelers +3 (5.2 IV)



Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (+6)

This game is a mirror image of the Patriots vs the Dolphins MNF game that occurred last week. This game is not important to the Falcons and they are more than likely looking ahead to the Saints and the Panthers in which they finish their season playing after this game. Tampa Bay has been out of the playoffs for almost half the season. This is them in prime time, probably the only game they will be up for giving a valiant effort for the whole year.

A good handicapping concept to follow is taking teams who have already been blown out by an opponent still in the playoff hunt – in the rematch on their home field – when they themselves are out of the playoffs – getting points at home. That was a mouthful.
This is a classic look ahead spot for the Falcons. They are playing a team on the road who is looking for revenge. If this game goes up to 7 – I would hammer it hard. Divisional game. Probably going to be decided by no more than a field goal. I lean the Bucs here.
Math Man Likes: Tampa Bay +6 (-110) (7.7 IV)



LA Rams @ Seattle (-2.5)

A few weeks ago Seattle lost to the Atlanta Falcons in a close game at home. All season long the Rams have been better than the Falcons. Now Seattle takes on the Rams. If Seattle loses their season is more than likely over. If the Rams lose they are on the cusp of the top 6 in their conference and find themselves in bad position going into the post-seasons. Seattle’s secondary is banged up – that is well documented. The legion of boom is no more and now Bobby Wagner – the Seahawks’ star line backer is also injured and questionable for Sunday’s game. However in the same breath – Seattle has been above expectations since the Atlanta loss and the fact that they still find themselves in the hunt for a playoff spot is a blessing for them this far into the season. Seattle has a top 10 O-line and can put up points against pretty much any team. The same can be said about the Rams who have scored 40+ on multiple occasions this season. Seahawks only allowed 3 points in the first half vs Jacksonville with Wagner in the line-up – after Wagner left the game Seattle allowed 27 points against the Jags. In week 11 the Seahawks allowed just 5.0 yards per play. Since then Seattle has allowed a whole 0.6 yards on top of that and now allows and average of 5.6 yards per play. The move here is the over.

Math Man Likes: Seattle/LA Rams O47.5 (7 IV)



Miami @ Buffalo (-3)

Tyrod Taylor is probably going to start. Even if he is hobbled, the Buffalo platoon is going to play for their playoff lives. It’s very simple. Buffalo has to win – Miami is coming off their biggest win of the season. Take the Bills.

Math Man Leans: Buffalo -3 (6.4 IV)


The stakes are getting higher.

BEST BET – Houston @ Jacksonville (-11.5)



As previously mentioned – the stats on the Houston Texans may be a little too fudged to rely on at this point in the season. DeShaun Watson carried that team for a good portion of the season before getting injured in practice a few weeks ago. While on the team he boosted the Texans yards per play stats from just below average to top ten in the league. However, that all came crashing down and now we – the math geeks – are here to pick up the pieces and decipher what is a real stat and what is a phoney stat. With the Texans, it’s a hard sell to make that Houston should be able to score at least 21 points against the Jags this weekend – but that’s exactly what I am going to do.

The Jags have to be taking the Texas a little bit lighter than they should I assume. Houston is a horrible team that most offenses and defenses have had their way with since Watson came out of the line up due to injury. Houston hasn’t been able to put up more than 17 points in their last 3 games. The last time the Texans put up 20+ was against the Cardinals in week 11 when they beat them 31-21 on the back of ol’ Tommy Savage.

What happened the next week is where this all gets very interesting. In week 12 the same Arizona Cardinals that lost to the Texans the week before were able to score 27 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars and beat them 27-24. In that game, Blake Bortles was the Jags leading rusher with a whopping 62 yards. Since then the Jags won a walk over game vs the Colts 30-10 in week 13, and then had an impressive 30-24 victory over the Seahawks in week 14.

So let’s review. The last time the Texans scored 17+ points was in a 31-21 victory against the Arizona Cardinals in week 11. The next week those same Cardinals beat the Jaguars 27-24. Since that week 12 loss the Jags are 2-0. Since the Houston win vs Arizona in week 11, the Texans are 0-3. Something has to give.

The Jaguars are so close to a playoff berth they can taste it. A Jacksonville win and a New England loss will see the Jaguars pull into a tie with the Pats for the AFC #2 seed and a possible play-off bye. This is the key motivation factor for the Jaguars going into this game. For Houston – they are winless in their last 3 games, and have not scored over 17 points since beating Arizona in week 11.

All of these factors combined – plus the obviousness of the math being in our favor. I am being pulled heavily towards the over here. 38 seems like a very low line for a game involving a team with so much on the line. We know how defensively sound the Jags game is. We also know how well the Jags run the ball. However, I don’t think the Texans have a good enough defense to handle the rush and can see the Jags getting up big early in this one. Most of the season the Jags have been conservative in the first half – I think is the game that changes.

It is this simple. If the Jags get up to 17 by the first half – which is totally possible because of how jacked they may be of the possibility of catching the #2 seed – all that is needed is the two teams splitting 21pts in the second half between them. That’s 10.5 points each. Totally do-able. Final score 27-13, take the over.

Sunday Best Bet: JAX/HOU O38 (-110) (11.3 IV)


This has been another edition of the Math Man’s NFL analysis. Here is a list of all the leans and likes from our Spark Score Predictor and Spark Power Rating. Enjoy the weekend of football and happy cappin’


Math Man’s NFL Spark Score Predictor – Week 15: Leans & Likes
HOU/JAK O38 (11.3 IV)
KC +1 (9.4 IV)
DET -5.5 (9.1 IV),
KC ML (8.4 IV),
TB +6 (7.7 IV)
SEA// O47.5 (7 IV)
SF// U45.5 (6.9 IV)
BUF -3 (6.4 IV)
PHI // O40.5 (5.8 IV)
TB // U48.5 (5.6 IV)
HOU +11.5 (5.3 IV)
PIT +3 (5.2 IV)
WSH -4 (4.1 IV)
PHI -7.5 (4.1 IV)
CAR -3 (3.2 IV),
OAK +3 (3 IV)
MIN -11 (2.4 IV)
CLE +7.5 (2.3 IV)
PIT ML (2.2 IV),
KC O46 (2.1 IV)
CAR U47 (2 IV)
BUF U38.5 (1.8 IV)
WSH // U41.5 (1.7 IV)
TB ML (1.7 IV),
PIT U54.5 (1.5 IV)
CLE U41 (1.4 IV)
NYJ // O47.5 (1.4 IV)
SF -1.5 (1.1 IV)



Math Man’s Spark NFL Power Ratings – Week 15: Leans & Likes
CLE +7.5 (10.5 IV)
PIT +3 (8.5 IV)
NYJ +15.5 (5.5 IV)
PIT ML (5.5 IV),
OAK +3 (4 IV)
CINC +11 (4 IV)
KC +1 (3.5 IV)
HOU +11.5 (3 IV)
CHI +5.5 (3 IV)
CLE ML (3 IV),
ARZ +4 (2.5 IV)
KC ML (2.5 IV),
CAR -3 (2 IV)
TEN +1.5 (1.5 IV)
OAK ML (1 IV),
—
follow all my picks on twitter
@almacsparksprtz

[A.M.S.]

Decent write-up

[Winning oasis]

Thank you for posting. I was convinced after last weeks info and waiting for you. Much appreciated.

I have Rivers in my FF playoff game tonight and was feeling a Chargers play. Buckeye fan and Bosa fan. BUT, I will enjoy watching and hoping for a lot of scoring and an OVER! Thanks again. Btw- Detroit looks good also. Have a great weekend.

[carnivale]

Good job math man, agree with you on many fronts. Good luck.

[aljack]

it was a good day for math man.

i'll be back later in the week with my week 16 breakdown.

[mrshoes]

thanks for posting

would you by chance do this for college foots or baskets

[aljack]

thanks for posting

would you by chance do this for college foots or baskets

I did it for the Saturday Bowl games on my twitter. Not the same result to say the least.

I do do NBA leans and likes everyday.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...-december.html

I am hoping to get big into the NCAA BB over the holidays.

Keep tuned to my twitter.com/aljacksparksprtz and you'll see all the stuff I am doing there.

Thanks for your interest