SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Ranking Best NFL Fits For Baker Mayfield
Ranking best NFL fits for Baker Mayfield
Matt Bowen
ESPN INSIDER
With 46 total touchdowns and more than 4,000 yards passing, Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield is the Heisman Trophy favorite. He just led OU to its third-straight Big 12 title, and the Sooners likely clinched a spot in the College Football Playoff with a win over TCU.
But as we start to look ahead to the 2018 NFL draft process, where does Mayfield fit in the pro game? Given his playmaking skill set, accurate arm and quick release to make tight-window throws, I've already dug into the tape and projected Mayfield as an early Day 2 pick.
So which NFL teams are a fit for Mayfield based on need, system and personnel? Here are five teams that should take a look at Mayfield in April -- in order.
1. Miami Dolphins
The Jay Cutler experiment hasn't worked out, and the team could cut injured former starter Ryan Tannehill this offseason with little effect on its cap space. That would open a door for the Dolphins to target Mayfield near the top of the second round. And I like the fit here in coach Adam Gase's offense.
Think of the run-pass options, the play-action and the movement schemes that would cater to Mayfield's game. Look at the quick release with the ability to attack tight windows, just as he did earlier this season in the win at Ohio State (see the example below). Show the bubble screen off the run fake -- and draw the linebacker -- get the eyes back inside and find the hole in the coverage to hit the seam for the touchdown. Just picture DeVante Parker running that route with Mayfield threading the ball up the seam.
Given that Miami needs to think hard about its future at quarterback, I'm buying the idea of the Dolphins taking a hard look at Mayfield. The skill set and the system are a match. And so is the value on Day 2 of the draft.
2. New Orleans Saints
The 38-year-old Drew Brees is still playing well in his 17th NFL season, but it's time for the Saints to invest in the future. Chase Daniel is not the long-term answer. I would love to see Mayfield working with Sean Payton and the balanced offensive system in New Orleans.
Think of the quick game, inside-the numbers throws and play-action opportunities that are created off the Saints' run game with Mark Ingram and rookie star Alvin Kamara. With a year or two to sit behind Brees, Mayfield would be in a position to step into an offense that could really maximize his ability. Throw the three-step game, get outside off boot, work leveled concepts and rip the ball on the seam in scoring opportunities, as Mayfield has shown on his college tape (see the example below).
Plus, we have to look at the coaching Mayfield would get under Payton. That's high-level ability stuff there with a playbook that would put the young quarterback in a position to succeed. New Orleans traded its 2018 second-round pick to move up to take Kamara in the 2017 draft -- which looks great so far -- so the Saints would have to look at Mayfield at the end of Round 1. I don't think that's too high -- remember, contracts for first-round picks include a fifth-year option, which is extremely valuable. And the fit with Mayfield and Payton makes too much sense.
3. New England Patriots
Maybe Tom Brady does have two years left at the top of his game, but that hasn't stopped Bill Belichick and the Patriots from drafting quarterbacks before. Jimmy Garoppolo was a second-round pick in 2014, and the Patriots grabbed Jacoby Brissett in the third round in 2016. And while Mayfield would have to sit behind Brady, who will be 41 when the 2018 season begins, the system in New England will adapt to fit the personnel at the position.
With the short-to-intermediate passing game -- and the ability to create consistent matchups at all three levels of the field -- Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is a master at using his personnel to generate positive one-on-ones and open-window opportunities. Mix in more spread concepts for Mayfield by throwing post-wheel (see the example below) and flood concepts. Sprinkle in some RPOs and play to the modern game using multiple personnel groupings to get the exact matchup New England wants.
With no developmental backup in place behind Brady, I expect New England to target a quarterback in the 2018 draft. And with the second-round pick they added while trading Garoppolo to the 49ers, they would be in perfect position to land Mayfield at the beginning of Day 2 -- just ahead of the next team on this list, for now.
4. New York Giants
The Giants are expected to go through a major transition this offseason. And we've seen the beginning of that process with Eli Manning being demoted as the starting quarterback. While we don't know what type of system, or leadership, New York is going to have in 2018, could Mayfield thrive there? Sure, if the Giants look to rebuild that offensive line at the top of the draft -- they're projected by ESPN's Football Power Index to have pick No. 4 overall -- and then target Mayfield as an early Day 2 pick.
The pieces would be in place at the offensive skill positions with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard and another year of development for Evan Engram. And even though we can't speculate on the exact offense the Giants will run next season, the core concepts still apply in every NFL playbook. Just picture Mayfield getting the ball out to Beckham in space on the three-step slant (see the example below), looking up Engram in a red zone matchup or finding Shepard on a deep corner route.
Now, can Mayfield survive the intense scrutiny in New York? Yes, I think he can. He plays with an edge, a supreme confidence level. I think he can handle the pressure of playing in a massive market with a swagger that his teammates will feed off. And if the Giants pass on UCLA's Josh Rosen or USC's Sam Darnold in Round 1 to address their issues up front, Mayfield could be in play when the clock starts on the second round of the draft.
5. Minnesota Vikings
The smart money's on Teddy Bridgewater starting the 2018 season as the Vikings' No. 1 QB. But Bridgewater, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford are all heading into the offseason as unrestricted free agents, and there is a possibility that Minnesota targets a quarterback in the draft. Mayfield could be an option at the end of the first round.
We've seen the production from Keenum this season in Pat Shurmur's offense, and the Vikings have legit weapons at wide receiver with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Mayfield would be a system fit here, and he has shown the ability to produce in the same route concepts that pop up at the pro level (see the example below). Just take a look at the PIN route (post and in) and picture Thielen occupying the quarters safety on the square-in with Diggs separating on the post. And the throw from Mayfield? It's a dime.
This could all be moot if the Vikings roll with Bridgewater (or even Keenum) as their quarterback heading into 2018. But the fit is right with Mayfield in Minnesota, running a balanced system and playing with a top-tier defense that can create prime field position for a rookie quarterback.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by shadymcgrady
