[KVB]

We are seeing the market move toward the forecast and rest at least for now, at the 3.5 point line, as indicated above. Tampa Bay is being bought TO +3.5...

To be clear, a buy is still triggered at +3.5 and would no longer be triggered at +3. I would think the public support for New England would keep it from falling to 3, because if it hits 3, the TB pressure will stop.

[Renegades]

yeah, if it hits 3, the money will stop coming in on Tampa

[KVB]

Even with Gronk out it's a bit tough to get onto the 3, we'll see.

[RangeFinder]

Hopefully you grabbed 4 before the game

I'm still on boycott

[KVB]

Hopefully you grabbed 4 before the game

I'm still on boycott

I actually had no bet on the game.

The forecast had a push against the opener and a loss against the closing spread there.

[KVB]

I don't have spreadsheet confirmation that the SF line flipped before close but if SF did close favored by 1 then the market spread moved towards the sharp forecast in 6 of the 9 games so far. The line moved away from the forecast 3 times.

This includes as little as 1/2 point moves on Thursday night's game and all of the early games, regardless of whether or not a bet was triggered.

The line crossed zero with the Jets and SF, both forecast to win as upsets but closed as favorites.

Tennessee went from a forecast favorite to win to an upset as the line moved away from the forecast making Miami favored.

[KVB]

For the afternoon, the line in the Seattle vs. LA Rams game has moved towards the forecast, crossing the zero making the Rams favored.

This is the third upset prediction at the opener that is a favorite winning prediction at the close.

[Louisvillekid1]

Kvb is top notch

didn’t read thread yet

but doesn’t matter

[KVB]

It looks like Indy will remain favored at the close in my books so there are two games (Jets and Rams) that have crossed the pick 'em moving towards the forecast.

[jjgold]

It’s brutal like people are saying now the NFL’s Baccarat

[KVB]

There was some discussion in this thread about the sharp forecast tie prediction between Jacksonville and Pittsburgh.

Like I posted, last week it was Carolina and the Rams with tie predictions getting upsets, this week Jacksonville looks to do it again.

This was a bit unexpected but is happening nonetheless as Jacksonville leads down the stretch.

[KVB]

I don't have spreadsheet confirmation that the SF line flipped before close but if SF did close favored by 1 then the market spread moved towards the sharp forecast in 6 of the 9 games so far. The line moved away from the forecast 3 times.

This includes as little as 1/2 point moves on Thursday night's game and all of the early games, regardless of whether or not a bet was triggered...

For the early games and Thursday:

I am recording the closing line as Indy favored though there is a difference across the market. Interestingly, that's that game going deep into OT.

With that, the market spread has moved toward the forecast 5 times and away from it 4 times by the close.

In 2 of those 4 movements away from the forecast, the movement was very small but I am counting it anyway.

In most houses, the Indy line basically had no movement and even moved towards the forecast. I am counting it against the forecast based on early pick 'em opener that most houses did not open with.

At Pinny, the line clearly moved toward the forecast.

I am being hard and strict on the forecast and possibly scoring a movement against it that did not occur in most places and at worst giving it the wrong score regarding movement outright.

I am being consistent with early openers in the market, even if they are not widely traded.

[KVB]

...

KC	28	Buy on KC to -2.5
Hou	23	Buy on OVER to 46.5

...

For the Sunday night game both the spread and Total moved away from the forecast into ranges that triggered bets on KC and the OVER by the close.

[jjgold]

KVB it’s not that easy
Call me tomorrow I’ll give you a good loan officer in your local area

[KVB]

KVB it’s not that easy Call me tomorrow I’ll give you a good loan officer in your local area

I know it's not Mr. Gold, I didn't bet every play here. I posted plays elsewhere. They were the Jets, Seattle, and KC tonight. But the framework of the forecast is pretty safe over time. For example, the forecast predicted the Oakland Raiders to win; we know the QB injury would have us looking to avoid that game.

Because of the line movement tonight, triggered bets were on KC and OVER.

With those two wins, the sharp forecast is 5-5 against the closing spread today and 3-3 against the closing Totals on triggered plays. Including Thursday, the forecast’s triggered plays against the spread were 4-5-1 against the openers and 5-6 against the closers.

Of the 12 games today, the sharp forecast was 5-6 against the moneyline.

As far as upsets, the sharp forecast was 3-3 against the opening line and 2-3 against the close. I mentioned in the opening post I expected to be right on 2 of the 6 openers, the sharp forecast did a little better.

When predicting the favorite to win, the sharp forecast was 2-3 against openers and 3-3 against the close. This is disappointing, but with so many games having the upset predicted this week and lines crossing zero, it’s a small sample to deal with. Usually we see more like 10 games with the favorite predicted to win each week.

Of the 13 games this week, the spread has moved toward the sharp forecast 7 times and away 6 times. Again, a case could be made that the line moved toward SF and thus the forecast, and even the that the line didn’t move at all, but at this point I am tracking otherwise, considering it a slight move away from the forecast.

Some moves were very small and insignificant; others crossed the pick ‘em.

This is what has happened so far this week.

[KVB]

...I’m essentially saying that the line between Pittsburgh and Jacksonville should be a pick ‘em. If that’s where it had opened, then the forecast would be in line with the market. Did the sharp forecast reveal some sort of inefficiency in the market? Efficient market theorists will say that it’s too wide and a bad prediction, and likely a bad forecast. Experience has shown otherwise and so did last week. Next will be a cry that the sample is small, and I will agree with that.

That said, from a market perspective, it doesn’t seem like Jacksonville winning this moneyline will pay...

Of course, the last sentence was wrong, Jacksonville won the game.

But has the sharp forecast revealed inefficiency in the last three 8-9 point openers? All three were predicted to be ties and all three were outright upsets.

The sample may be small but this is just one of a many reasons why I mention the sharp forecast being a safe framework to go by. It will reveal the difficult market of the NFL to be a little less efficient than many think. Of course, it's still a very tight market. The forecast went up against some of the toughest money in the world today, and it held its own despite being a bit disappointing for week 5.

Anyway, that’s how Week 5 has gone down so far and if anyone wants, I may put the forecast for week 6 out as well. It can be nice to compare it with your own handicapping and maybe it will perform a bit better following this week.

[downsouth]

win or lose thanks for the input.

[KVB]

With as little as ½ point discrepancy against that market, the stacking percentages forecast, which wasn’t expected to do too well in Week 5 was 5-8 against the spread, 3-8 against the moneyline, and 6-7 against the Totals.

For the three afternoon games and the Thursday night game, the stacking percentages forecast was correct against the Total in the Sea/Rams game.

It was wrong on every other spread, ML, and Total bet for those four games.

Here are are the stacking percentages forecast for each game of Week 5...

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Minn	21	Chi Spread	No ML prediction
Chi	21		No Total offered

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Minn	24	Buy on Minn to -5.5
Chi	14	Buy on OVER 32.5 or UNDER 44.5	No Total offered

The line is pretty tight here for the Monday night game. The Total is between the two forecasts and the spread as well.

I haven’t put much analysis into this thread by I believe the money allows for the sharp forecast to get the moneyline win tonight. I have taken Minnesota to win.

It’s a market of give and take and the stacking forecast has a chance to be right against the spread or Total tonight. Taking the Minnesota spread seems like a decent play, in line with the sharp forecast, but it could well be the case that it’s a close game at home for the bears.

I’ve settled for the moneyline favorite and have already lost one bet in a failing cross-sport parlay with the CFL today…lol.

[jjgold]

KVB stop wasting your time

Pick out of hat and have better chance

Do not make me slap you silly

[KVB]

[hotcross]

thanks for sharing your work, KVB
pimp slap or Not,
verrrry interesting

[KVB]

For week 6 the sharp forecast predicts only two upsets against the moneyline. One of them is tonight and I doubt it will be a paying bet. After tonight’s game, however, I would expect this week to be pretty good one against the moneyline. I have taken Carolina to win tonight, with no bet against the spread. Again, some of that analysis may be out of the scope of this thread but a successful sharp forecast upset tonight is less likely than the offered odds indicate. I suppose it could be considered the vig on the dog, but it’s a high one for sure.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Phily	31	Buy on Philly to -3.5	ML upset prediction
Car	24	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Cle	17	Buy on Hou to -13.5
Hou	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5
NE	31	Buy on Jets to +7.5
Jets	27	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Mia	14	Buy on Mia to +13.5 and Atl to -5.5	Spread in line with Market
Atl	24	Buy on UNDER to 44.5
Det	24	Buy on Detroit to -3.5	ML upset prediction
NO	17	Buy on UNDER to 45.5
GB	28	Buy on GB to -3.5	No bet triggered on -4 open
Minn	21	Buy on OVER to 46.5	No bet triggered on 47 open
Chi	17	Buy on Chi +7.5 or Balt -1/2	Spread in line with Market
Balt	21	Buy on OVER to 32.5 or UNDER to 44.5	Total in line with Market
SF	23	Buy on SF to +4.5
Wash	24	Buy on OVER to 43.5 or UNDER to 51.5	Total in line with Market
Rams	23	Buy on Jax to -5.5
Jax	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
TB	23	Buy on TB to -2.5
Zona	17	Buy on UNDER to 44.5
Pitt	21	Buy on Pitt to +7.5 or KC -1/2	Spread in line with Market
KC	24	Buy on OVER to 40.5 or UNDER to 48.5	Total in line with Market
LAC	24	Buy on OAK to +11.5 or LAC to -3.5	No spread offered
OAK	17	Buy on OVER to 36.5 and UNDER to 45.5	No Total offered
NY Gia	21	Buy on Gia to +10.5	No bet triggered on -9 open
Den	27	Buy on OVER to 44.5
Indy	23	Buy on Indy to +7.5 or Tenn to -2.5	No spread offered
Tenn	28	Buy on OVER to 46.5, No Buy on UNDER	No Total offered

[KVB]

Here’s the stacking percentages forecast for week 6 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it does a little better this week than last. We still don’t have enough information for two of the games but I wanted to get it out before tonight’s game began.

For tonight's game the stacking forecast predicts Carolina and I agree with it in this instance. I have picked up the Carolina moneyline and added the spread of -3 at even money.

Team	Score	Forecast with 1/2 pt discrepency	Notes
Philly	17	Car Spread, Car ML
Car	24	UNDER
Cle	14	Hou Spread, Hou ML
Hou	28	UNDER
NE	24	Jets Spread	No ML prediction
Jets	24	OVER
Mia	10	Atl Spread, Atl ML
Atl	31	UNDER
Det	16	NO Spread , NO ML
NO	27	UNDER
GB	20	Minn Spread, Minn ML	ML upset prediction
Minn	24	UNDER
Chi	13	Balt Spread, Balt ML
Balt	27		Total between Open & offered
SF	10	Wash Spread, Wash ML
Wash	31	UNDER
Rams	16	Jax Spread, Jax ML
Jax	27		Total between Open & offered
TB	23	Zona Spread	No ML prediction
Zona	23
Pitt	16	KC Spread, KC ML
KC	28	UNDER
LAC			Not enough data
OAK
NY Gia	7	Den Spread, Den ML
Den	31	UNDER
Indy			Not enough data
Tenn

[RangeFinder]

Good luck K

Still on boycott

[Shute]

Good luck K

Still on boycott

Love you ranger!!!!!!
Either stand or leave!!!!!!!
God Bless!!!!!
🇺🇸

[KVB]

[KVB]

For week 6 the sharp forecast predicts only two upsets against the moneyline. One of them is tonight and I doubt it will be a paying bet. After tonight’s game, however, I would expect this week to be pretty good one against the moneyline...

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Phily	31	Buy on Philly to -3.5	ML upset prediction
Car	24	Buy on OVER to 47.5

Once again I pay the price for trying to counter the sharp forecast with a trade.

The forecast can't get a much better start to the week than it just did.

[RangeFinder]

That was a great forecast!

[KVB]

For the stacking percentages forecast there were two games that didn't have enough information when I posted Thursday.

Here is the stacking forecast for those games...

LAC	17	Oak Spread, Oak ML
OAK	23	UNDER
Indy	20	Indy Spread	Based on early opener
Tenn	24		No Total offered

[KVB]

In regards to the sharp forecast, line movement to the close triggered plays on Miami +13.5 and Green Bay -3.

At the open, no plays were triggered against the spread in these games.

The drop in the Total triggered an OVER play in Green Bay vs Minn, and rise in the Total in the NE vs. Jets game brought that line out of range from the original opener for an Over play.

[KVB]

So far this week for triggered plays against the spread the sharp forecast is 5-3 against openers and 6-4 against closers. For triggered Total plays the sharp forecast is 4-3-1 against openers and 5-3 against closers.

On the moneyline the sharp forecast is 5-5 against the opener and 5-7 against the close. Upset predictions are 2-1 against the line; this is higher than the expected result. When predicting the favorite the sharp forecast is 3-4 against the open and 3-6 against the closing moneyline. This is a low success rate but overall there were a number of upsets today. This rate should rebound quickly. Also, two games opened early as a pick and moved towards the forecast to create a favorite, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay both lost.

For the Green Bay game, the spread and Total both moved into to trigger bets on GB and the Over. Both bets failed and the Green Bay QB was taken out in the first plays of the game.

Tonight the forecast predicts Denver to win, the OVER, and the line has moved enough to trigger a bet on the Giants spread.

I’m not adding much analysis to this thread but I will say that with such a low success rate on the favorite moneyline predictions, there is plenty of room for the favorite to win tonight. With such a high spread, that may not seem like saying much, but in order to stay even, or settled, a large favorite winning at night could offset some of the upsets seen during the day. I think it’s the favorite tonight and triggered bets may fail again as Denver handles the business.

It could be tough for the Giants to get many points tonight.

[Ryermkd]

If it's not too much effort I hope you continue to post these, they provide some good insight.

[KVB]

...Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
Indy	23	Buy on Indy to +7.5 or Tenn to -2.5	No spread offered
Tenn	28	Buy on OVER to 46.5, No Buy on UNDER	No Total offered

...Here is the stacking forecast for those games...

Indy	20	Indy Spread	Based on early opener
Tenn	24		No Total offered

When comparing to the market with as little as 1/2 point discrepancy, the stacking forecast calls for the Under tonight and so far is 5-8 against the spread, 4-7 against the moneyline and 5-5 against the Totals.

Both forecasts call for Indy against the spread at the opening line, but the line has moved toward the forecasts and a bet is no longer triggered for the sharp forecast. The Total dropped to 46.5, triggering a bet on the Over for the sharp forecast.

In my opinion this line opened a bit high as the books knew they would get underdog money. Subsequent moves toward the forecast may be an early steam move also designed to draw underdog bets. The rash of underdogs and upsets across the NFL in the last weeks also has the public hungry for the dog. Word is getting out about the dogs and things will likely turn away from the underdogs at this point. If we see a late move on the favorite, it is likely going to be the favorite covering or a 7 point game.

Against the close the sharp forecast is 7-4 so far this week for triggered plays and it remains 5-3 against the opening spread. The sharp forecast is now 3-7 when predicting the favorite to win against the closing moneyline. This is low, especially for a single week and combined with the above originating and bookmaking strategies implies the favorite will win tonight. Metrics revolving around this type of environment agree. Then again, that’s what was indicated last night.

For the sharp forecast, last night’s game only affected the closing spread result and tonight’s game, unless the line moves back to +7.5, will only affect the opening spread result.

[KVB]

...The rash of underdogs and upsets across the NFL in the last weeks also has the public hungry for the dog. Word is getting out about the dogs...

Here are the Favorite/Underdog results in the NFL so far this year against the close. The Underdogs are covering at a fairly high clip and those that win outright are doing it at a high clip as well…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9
Totals	90	35	54	39	1
%		38.89%	60.00%	43.33%	1.11%
			% of Dogs:	72.22%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

Now let’s take out the 1^st two weeks and see what’s happened in the last four weeks…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
5	14	7	7	6
6	13	2	11	9
Totals	59	20	39	30	0
%		33.90%	66.10%	50.85%	0.00%
			% of Dogs:	76.92%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

From a market perspective the upsets are running very high and this Underdog success rate will pull back. We should see it return towards the levels of the first quarter of the season…

		Against	Closing	Line
Week	Games	Favorite	Underdog	ML upsets	Push
1	15	7	7	5	1
2	16	8	8	4
3	16	4	12	8
4	16	7	9	7
Totals	63	26	36	24	1
%		41.27%	57.14%	38.10%	1.59%
			% of Dogs:	66.67%
	Note: One Game left for week 6

If they don’t return to at least these levels by the end of week 8, then expect the opposite results over the second half of the season. It’s the nature of the give and take of the markets.

The finer details are a bit out of the scope of this thread but I did want to address what I meant by the rash of upsets. What these tables don’t show are the types of lines, large and small, failing and succeeding against the spread and moneyline.

These upsets have been visible, are running at a high clip, and are not favoring the perceived public side of the coin. As the public starts to seek the upsets and the numbers line up on them as well, like tonight, that’s when we start to see the market turn.

The market will turn, but that knowledge only gets us so far as trying to figure the when and how, and to profit from it, requires individual analysis of the games. It requires having a sense of the market that tells you when things are overbought or oversold.

One telling example is the Sunday night game this week. At one point, the Broncos became over bought and the line moved far enough to trigger a play on the Giants. This doesn’t always result in a winner, but it will eventually sniff enough out of the market to gain a slight edge.

[KVB]

For week 7 the sharp forecast predicts 6 upsets against the moneyline at the open. The line has already moved to a pick em, toward the forecast in the Denver vs. LA Chargers game. I have an expectation of 2 of those 6 being correct against the moneyline. I would expect the moneyline favorite predictions to fare well this week; they are running at a fairly low clip.

Below are the long term dynamic sharp forecast, the levels a buy would be triggered, and few notes for each game:

Team	Score	Triggers Levels:	Notes
KC	28	Buy on KC to -12.5
Oak	13	Buy on UNDER to 45.5
Tenn	31	Buy on Tenn to -6.5
Cle	20	Buy on OVER to 46.5
Jax	31	Buy on Jax to -6.5
Indy	20	Buy on OVER to 46.5
Cinci	20	Buy on Cinci to -3.5	ML upset prediction
Pitt	13	Buy on UNDER to 38.5
Balt	13	Buy on Minn to -12.5
Minn	28	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Total in line with Market
Jets	17	Buy on Jets to -5.5	ML upset prediction
Mia	7	Buy on UNDER to 33.5
TB	17	Buy on TB to +7.5 or Buf to -2.5	No Spread offered
Buf	28	Bu on OVER to 40.5 or UNDER to 48.5	No Total offered
Car	27	Buy on Chi to +3.5 or Car to +1.5	ML upset prediction
Chi	28	Buy on OVER to 47.5	Spread in line with market
NO	31	Buy on GB to +3.5
GB	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Zona	21	Buy on Rams to -13.5
Rams	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Dal	31	Buy on SF to -5.5	ML upset prediction
SF	41	Buy on OVER to 47.5
Sea	27	Buy on Seattle to -5.5	No bet triggered on -7.5 open
Gia	17	Buy on OVER to 37.5 or UNDER to 47.5	Total in line with Market
Den	20	Buy on Char to +3.5 or Den to +1.5	ML upset prediction at Open
LA Char	21	Buy on OVER to 36.5 or UNDER to 45.5	Spread/Total in line with market
Atl	28	Buy on Atl to +7.5 or on NE to -1/2	Spread in line with Market
NE	31	Buy on OVER to 47.5, No Buy on Under	Total line with Market
Wash	31	Buy on Wash to +3.5	ML Upset prediction
Philly	28	Buy on OVER to 47.5