[stevenash]

So....
Earlier this afternoon I'm at the deli next door to the vendor of charisma where "Buzzy the local book" conducts his Sunday NFL business.

I pay the teenage girl at the deli register for my pound of pastrami, half pound of Swiss cheese, and a couple of other assorted sundries, poke my head in to pay my regards, as me and Buzzy have know each other for years.

Buzzy says to me "Hey Billy, how ya doing?" I reply "I'm splendid" and Buzzy offers me a beer.
It's 12 noon, I don't like to start drinking that early so I settle on a coke, pull up one of those wooden bar stools and we start chewing the fat.

After 5 minutes of chit chat we get around to shop talk, I ask Buzzy "what's the play today, who's betting what?"
Buzzy tells me in that raspy voice of his that was shaped from years of cigarette smoking "Billy, I need the Bears bad, but it's not just me, the 'syndicate' needs the Bears bad, everybody and their mother in law is on the Steelers, it's uncanny Billy, I'm not joking, 80 percent of the money on that game is on Pittsburgh, and it's not just the spread Billy, Joey the Whale phoned in 1/2 hour ago money line parlay Philly and Pittsburgh one dime, and it's not just me Billy, my office, the people I have to answer to, they have a shitload more Pittsburgh action then I do, not just the spread, but there's an unusual amount of money line bets on Pitt as well............"

After 10 more minutes of small talk I bid Buzzy a fond afternoon, explain it's lunch time and I still need to get the dogs out for their daily run at the lake. As I'm walking to my truck I'm rehashing our conversation in my head, and say to myself, "if the book really needs the Bears, watch the Bears win, seems like almost always what the book needs, the book gets"

I get home, I log on to the laptop, check out a few sites, notice that Pitt moved to 7 flat off of 6.5.
Just for shits and giggles I put a C note on Bears +7 and a double sawbuck on Bears money line.

Fast forward to 4 pm.....
Sure as shit, if shit can be sure.

Chicago 23
Pittsburgh 17 (in overtime yet)

Funny how it seems what the book needs, the book gets.

[KVB]

I would think Nash, after all the betting you've done, that one day you will understand.

There's no mystery here and it is by design.

Good Luck.

[bozeman]

So....
Earlier this afternoon I'm at the deli next door to the vendor of charisma where "Buzzy the local book" conducts his Sunday NFL business.

I pay the teenage girl at the deli register for my pound of pastrami, half pound of Swiss cheese, and a couple of other assorted sundries, poke my head in to pay my regards, as me and Buzzy have know each other for years.

Buzzy says to me "Hey Billy, how ya doing?" I reply "I'm splendid" and Buzzy offers me a beer.
It's 12 noon, I don't like to start drinking that early so I settle on a coke, pull up one of those wooden bar stools and we start chewing the fat.

After 5 minutes of chit chat we get around to shop talk, I ask Buzzy "what's the play today, who's betting what?"
Buzzy tells me in that raspy voice of his that was shaped from years of cigarette smoking "Billy, I need the Bears bad, but it's not just me, the 'syndicate' needs the Bears bad, everybody and their mother in law is on the Steelers, it's uncanny Billy, I'm not joking, 80 percent of the money on that game is on Pittsburgh, and it's not just the spread Billy, Joey the Whale phoned in 1/2 hour ago money line parlay Philly and Pittsburgh one dime, and it's not just me Billy, my office, the people I have to answer to, they have a shitload more Pittsburgh action then I do, not just the spread, but there's an unusual amount of money line bets on Pitt as well............"

After 10 more minutes of small talk I bid Buzzy a fond afternoon, explain it's lunch time and I still need to get the dogs out for their daily run at the lake. As I'm walking to my truck I'm rehashing our conversation in my head, and say to myself, "if the book really needs the Bears, watch the Bears win, seems like almost always what the book needs, the book gets"

I get home, I log on to the laptop, check out a few sites, notice that Pitt moved to 7 flat off of 6.5.
Just for shits and giggles I put a C note on Bears +7 and a double sawbuck on Bears money line.

Fast forward to 4 pm.....
Sure as shit, if shit can be sure.

Chicago 23
Pittsburgh 17 (in overtime yet)

Funny how it seems what the book needs, the book gets.

book needs Washington now see what happens

[KVB]

book needs Washington now see what happens

In my opinion, this is could be short sighted. The NFL is not usually that easy.Could it be that the books already got what the "needed" today and that there is room to pay out the Oakland bets?

There is a bigger picture of give and take that is not decided by any one issue.

Regardless of tonight's result, it's something to think about.

[bhoor]

NFL is WWF 2.0, and most of its games are rigged, at least, in the point spread side. On surface, it looked NBA as number one rigged league due to its high volume of games.

(Rigged NFL games / Total # of NFL games played in that season) > ( Rigged NBA games/ Total # of NBA games played in that season)

[SportsMushroom]

if that was the case you'd be rich, you'd always bet the side that the books need and you'd be $$$$$


the truth is you only remember the times the books win, and forget about all the times they lose

books hit around 50% but make out on the juice

[stevenash]

I would think Nash, after all the betting you've done, that one day you will understand.

There's no mystery here and it is by design.

Good Luck.

I've understood for years and years.
When I was in my 20's I used to work in an 'office' for an independent book.
I learned my inside information from the inside, but I like to pick the locals brain for knowledge every now and then.

[19th Hole]

" ...vendor of charisma..."

Nasher - Thanks for the post.
Congrats on the Bears cash.

[jjgold]

Books win 85% of the time

[Hu$tle]

lines are sharp

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Books are the biggest gamblers. It's never split down the middle like so many believe--one of the biggest myths I see on the boards. Some of these books would be better to lower their limits, make their own lines, and then make a stand against their largely public clientele than to move on air and give up their edge. Just my two cents.

[Slipknot26]

Ive been there . I was a runner for one late 90's, 2000
I call him to place a bet , can't remember the team , gave him the team , he gave me the spread , says , you're the first person to bet so and so today . I'm like seriously , he says yes.
In my mind , he has hundreds if not thousand of clients .
So I tell him add 2 more dollars to it .
It easily hit .
Lopsided games put small books in a bind , but they do hit their fair share, but also shift those lines as well .
Bama -5 vs LSU several years back , -5 across the board .
Log in , local has -7.5 , I take LSU but he needs that action to offset 90 /10 ratio .

[stevenash]

Ive been there . I was a runner for one late 90's, 2000
I call him to place a bet , can't remember the team , gave him the team , he gave me the spread , says , you're the first person to bet so and so today . I'm like seriously , he says yes.
In my mind , he has hundreds if not thousand of clients .
So I tell him add 2 more dollars to it .
It easily hit .
Lopsided games put small books in a bind , but they do hit their fair share, but also shift those lines as well .
Bama -5 vs LSU several years back , -5 across the board .
Log in , local has -7.5 , I take LSU but he needs that action to offset 90 /10 ratio .

I was a liaison, a go between. I picked up money owed to the office, and I delivered money to clients owed.
I answered phones when needed. The office would give me 10 percent of the net losses of every new client I brought in.
Learned a lot about the business. For instances some offices (not all) profile their clients.
They study their betting patterns, and once their betting patterns were determined the office would adjust their lines accordingly.
For instance, we had one customer who would bet Ron Darling only when he pitched at home at the old Shea Stadium.
The book figured out his betting patterns, so if Darling was -140 at home for a start, the customer would call in and the book knowing he would bet Darling would give him -160 instead of -140. I said to him "isn't that a little unfair?" He said no, I said how so, he said to me "because he can bet the other way and take advantage of my over inflated line."

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Pretty shady move. Book's going to beat a player like that anyway--no need to gouge him. You were right to inquire. Rec books have to profile because they are moving on air and they aren't always the quickest. Too bad there aren't more independent-minded rec shops.

[funnyb25]

Funny how it seems when one loses it is always a "fix"

[StackinGreen]

Books are the biggest gamblers. It's never split down the middle like so many believe--one of the biggest myths I see on the boards. Some of these books would be better to lower their limits, make their own lines, and then make a stand against their largely public clientele than to move on air and give up their edge. Just my two cents.

I talk about this all the time. Not sure why people dispute it, one of the biggest falsehoods thrown around is that they "get 50-50" on each side blah blah blah. Yeah, they might, but overwhelmingly they don't, apparently for reasons only High3r and I understand.

[StackinGreen]

Funny how it seems when one loses it is always a "fix"

I must have extra terrestrial knowledge then, because I'm destroying the NFL thus far. Yes, I'm in on the conspiracy. Wait, whoops, I wasn't supposed to tell you I'm part of the illuminati.

And we wonder why politicians win again and again and again. With this many idiots around, it's easy to see why.

[StackinGreen]

if that was the case you'd be rich, you'd always bet the side that the books need and you'd be $$$$$

the truth is you only remember the times the books win, and forget about all the times they lose

books hit around 50% but make out on the juice

Posts like this in response to the above crap at least give me some hope and incentive to keep trying to teach people shit around here --- it's not all buffoons. Good stuff, Mushroom.

You are so right, idiots like that guy don't post when the public demolishes the books for 2-3 weeks at a time. Yes, it happens, if you pay attention and don't have recall bias. But some fool would probably make a thread and say some crap like "They gotta let them win sometimes" blah blah. As if they care about you winning or losing. It's all calculated risk and math over the LONG TERM, for any of you newbies who don't know anything. It's also why you don't bet lots of games in a weekend. I think vig is truly something hard to understand for the average person.

[KVB]

I talk about this all the time. Not sure why people dispute it, one of the biggest falsehoods thrown around is that they "get 50-50" on each side blah blah blah. Yeah, they might, but overwhelmingly they don't, apparently for reasons only High3r and I understand.

It's not just you two, some of us in the industry are willing to share insight (although I think you two have probably already seen this post)...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...idnt-read.html

[Snowball]

cool stories but the fact is you're just using selective memory

favorites and public win just as much as "what the books need",
you just don't make an issue of those instances.

[StackinGreen]

Good stuff, KVB. I'm just trying to be honest about humanity, anyone with any handle on critical thinking (not many apparently) should realize that in any given week they almost get no games with 50-50. When you ask yourself why after that (again, I guess most don't or don't have the capacity to complete the thought) you begin to truly understand what's going on. Right?

[KVB]

I've posted many times that it's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

I've always posted that I think these principals, which apply to all sports are best taught by example. It's the essence of how I post plays.

I've used the CFL because it's easier to encompass the whole league, the NFL would require so much typing, just look at the bowl games, playoffs, and march madness where I posted forecasts and analysis on EVERY game. A poster reading for the first time will be lost and need to catch up.

There is a context to the market and there is a long term.

That long term is what many forget, they live in the here and now...which is also important.

Like I always say, if you know why the line opens where it does and moves to where it closes, you will go a long way towards winning long term.

[Ryermkd]

I've posted many times that it's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

I've always posted that I think these principals, which apply to all sports are best taught by example. It's the essence of how I post plays.

I've used the CFL because it's easier to encompass the whole league, the NFL would require so much typing, just look at the bowl games, playoffs, and march madness where I posted forecasts and analysis on EVERY game. A poster reading for the first time will be lost and need to catch up.

There is a context to the market and there is a long term.

That long term is what many forget, they live in the here and now...which is also important.

Like I always say, if you know why the line opens where it does and moves to where it closes, you will go a long way towards winning long term.

[A4K]

I've posted many times that it's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

I've always posted that I think these principals, which apply to all sports are best taught by example. It's the essence of how I post plays.

I've used the CFL because it's easier to encompass the whole league, the NFL would require so much typing, just look at the bowl games, playoffs, and march madness where I posted forecasts and analysis on EVERY game. A poster reading for the first time will be lost and need to catch up.

There is a context to the market and there is a long term.

That long term is what many forget, they live in the here and now...which is also important.

Like I always say, if you know why the line opens where it does and moves to where it closes, you will go a long way towards winning long term.

Amen! Reminds me of my first BIG bet a long time ago!

It was 1998 and the NFC Championship was on the line. Before the line was posted, I said I'm taking the Falcons at anything over +7. To my surprise the line was 13.5 and 14 at some places. I knew that the betting market was ****** on this one. Vikings were an offensive juggernaut that season but the Falcons sure as fuq were not a 2 TD dog. I literally went ALL-IN with my account at Bowman's @ the time, now BET365, I believe. $5,500 to win $5k. Felt so easy.

[BigdaddyQH]

I've posted many times that it's not that gamblers don't know things, it's just that so much of what they know is wrong.

I've always posted that I think these principals, which apply to all sports are best taught by example. It's the essence of how I post plays.

I've used the CFL because it's easier to encompass the whole league, the NFL would require so much typing, just look at the bowl games, playoffs, and march madness where I posted forecasts and analysis on EVERY game. A poster reading for the first time will be lost and need to catch up.

There is a context to the market and there is a long term.

That long term is what many forget, they live in the here and now...which is also important.

Like I always say, if you know why the line opens where it does and moves to where it closes, you will go a long way towards winning long term.

You have it partially right, but here is what you guys miss and why it is so easy to figure out who the air bettors are. The opening line for people who wager big money (I am talking in the thousands) can be different than the opening line you people in here can wager on. The books in Vegas open those lines to their high rollers around 1:00 pm (Pacific time), well before the lines are "posted". They then adjust the lines as they see fit for "Joe Pub", which includes all of you guys. Many of these lines are actually set in June. See "College Games of the Year"and "NFL Games of the Year". These games available in June, also provide people who really know what they are doing a huge edge. I grabbed Arkansas +10 against Texas A%M in June. Then I took Texas A&M -3 6 days before the game. A&M wins by 7 and I hit a middle, the most profitable wager in all of football. This is just one of the secrets to making money in this game, but there is one common thread. It takes MONEY, and a lot of it, to make MONEY. If you want to win big, on a consistent basis, you have to wager big and take advantage of every opportunity provided to you. Advanced wagering is just one of those tools. It also helps to be good, and that is something you just have to have inside of you. That is the instinct that tells you no matter how good something looks, you pass on it if it just doesn't feel right in your gut. IF you do not have that, you will never win a lot of money.

[A4K]

You have it partially right, but here is what you guys miss and why it is so easy to figure out who the air bettors are. The opening line for people who wager big money (I am talking in the thousands) can be different than the opening line you people in here can wager on. The books in Vegas open those lines to their high rollers around 1:00 pm (Pacific time), well before the lines are "posted". They then adjust the lines as they see fit for "Joe Pub", which includes all of you guys. Many of these lines are actually set in June. See "College Games of the Year"and "NFL Games of the Year". These games available in June, also provide people who really know what they are doing a huge edge. I grabbed Arkansas +10 against Texas A%M in June. Then I took Texas A&M -3 6 days before the game. A&M wins by 7 and I hit a middle, the most profitable wager in all of football. This is just one of the secrets to making money in this game, but there is one common thread. It takes MONEY, and a lot of it, to make MONEY. If you want to win big, on a consistent basis, you have to wager big and take advantage of every opportunity provided to you. Advanced wagering is just one of those tools. It also helps to be good, and that is something you just have to have inside of you. That is the instinct that tells you no matter how good something looks, you pass on it if it just doesn't feel right in your gut. IF you do not have that, you will never win a lot of money.

Like the old days where the Sands held a lottery to give the sharps first crack at the lines. Times have changed but Vegas has not.

[StackinGreen]

You have it partially right, but here is what you guys miss and why it is so easy to figure out who the air bettors are. The opening line for people who wager big money (I am talking in the thousands) can be different than the opening line you people in here can wager on. The books in Vegas open those lines to their high rollers around 1:00 pm (Pacific time), well before the lines are "posted". They then adjust the lines as they see fit for "Joe Pub", which includes all of you guys. Many of these lines are actually set in June. See "College Games of the Year"and "NFL Games of the Year". These games available in June, also provide people who really know what they are doing a huge edge. I grabbed Arkansas +10 against Texas A%M in June. Then I took Texas A&M -3 6 days before the game. A&M wins by 7 and I hit a middle, the most profitable wager in all of football. This is just one of the secrets to making money in this game, but there is one common thread. It takes MONEY, and a lot of it, to make MONEY. If you want to win big, on a consistent basis, you have to wager big and take advantage of every opportunity provided to you. Advanced wagering is just one of those tools. It also helps to be good, and that is something you just have to have inside of you. That is the instinct that tells you no matter how good something looks, you pass on it if it just doesn't feel right in your gut. IF you do not have that, you will never win a lot of money.

I'll bite big daddy:

How much are you claiming the books allow their "whales" to bet on an opening line? I'll tell you out front I'm skeptical already for a lot of reasons, but I'll let you respond. I'm sure there are a few idiots betting huge sums, but mostly there aren't. If you gave me Vegas books opening lines for the next week on Sunday night (for example), I would KILL them long term. That's why I also would bring up the point I'm sure KVB has mentioned that's similar to this thread: It's not the "Vegas" number or "Vegas was right" it's ironically the betting public (money wise, not saying I don't fade that other "public") that has it right, they just move the lines. Another common misconception.

[KVB]

I often address the "early opener" when talking about the market.

I know all about it BigDaddy, but you can pretend to know all day long. I think BigDaddy recently read a book, some of his info is outdated.

Also, things really have changed over the years and that early opener and subsequent trades do get reported. Sometimes I do my best to make calls to verify the information.

Trying to follow what you think sharp money is doing and trying to be accessible to that sharp info is nowhere near as valuable as creating your own line that reflects reality better than the line the books can or want to hang.

Again, understanding why the line opens where it opens and moves to where it closes is what it takes. It has nothing to do with recognizing something in your gut that tells you it's right or wrong.

That kind of behavior is certain to lead the bettor into emotional territory that is not necessary to win and is in fact one of the harmful things to bettors.

BigDaddy, you may get a bit about what people with large money will bet, but don't mistake them for those beating the market and moving the lines. They are not always the same people.

[konck]

Its been my theory on gambling forever
If you can find one Brock Landers who gives you his picks
Its like finding gold

[ELNATURAL]

It's pretty simple. If you believe a certain team wins or covers the spread - you bet on it. Otherwise don't bet at all. If you bet big money, you always have the risk of losing big money. If you know 100% what the winning bet is (match fixing) then you bet big money and win all the time. Simple.

If any if you think match fixing doesn't exist, you been living under a rock.

All the other bs you hear are just theories or beliefs people have. You cannot control the outcome of a match.

Good luck. Best to gamble small and recreationally or you will becone broke thinking you have an edge on a sporting match.

[Slipknot26]

KVB
Exact same, pick up over an are , get 10% weekly.
Nothing if payout which was very seldom.
But they absolutely knowo betting patterns , adjust accordingly , hit many that's off a pt or so because limited options back then unlike now .
Amazing how bad some gamblers were , Drs broke , divorces , yet keep on picking losers .
It fell apart once they took bets over State lines plus knockoff Designer BS apparel .
Several went to the pen over it after I got out working with them .

[High3rEl3m3nt]

It's not just you two, some of us in the industry are willing to share insight (although I think you two have probably already seen this post)...

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...idnt-read.html

Haven't read this post. There's a lot of former bookmakers and current bookmakers, as well as much sharper gamblers as a whole, that post elsewhere and there's been many an interesting conversation/debate, much like what use to occur during SBR's early days. Justin7, before he went to work the other side, had a series of videos that are worth viewing which help to set the record.

I know a tout with a large following that could move the whole industry 1-2 points on game days. I tracked him, bet his plays, and followed the action on Don Best/ Sports Options. I think one difference between me and some is that I believe the whole market is an absolute joke and should be taken mostly with a grain of salt. Don't put the market on a pedestal. This guy had no model, but just watched NBA games from sun up to sun down and crossed all of his "t's" and dotted all of his "i's."

As for Bigdaddy, I've seen him post at various places over the years and he is a well known advantage gambler--a good one at that. I don't doubt what he says, but wonder whether what he is suggesting is a page out of old Vegas--new Vegas comes across as so corporatized and might create wiggle room for its whales, but I can't see them doing this consistently if they peg you as a sharp or if they continually get middled, as Bigdaddy says he was able to do. I can't see that kind of opportunity being sustained--does not seem to fit the current direction, but in the same breath, I can't say that I know 100% for certain either way.

[StackinGreen]

If any if you think match fixing doesn't exist, you been living under a rock.

Decent post, but what are you trying to prove by this statement? Even in soccer (and I can tell you are likely referring to such things since you used the word "match") where it could be the most common, historically it is uncommon, and soccer is not wagered on or talked about a ton on this forum. Furthermore, that sport has the worst rules and/or the greatest latitude given to the (1) official, so it is geared towards conspiracy and human error or emotion.

My point is, any fix is historically, and currently, super rare if it exists. Also, any modern one isn't an outright fix either, it's been technically a shaving of points.

[ELNATURAL]

Soccer , tennis , sports by which an opponent is to lose - pre determined.
I also witness many games controlled by officiating which favors a certain side and is obvious to me. You might disagree, ncaab and NBA are good examples late in the game when the outcome falls short of a spread cover .. fouls which have no effect on the outcome of who wins but money on which side covers a spread or total. I don't want to get into this any further but it's good practice to be wise with your money. Don't assume anything or expect to win because gambling is a risk you take. You can believe in all these theories or beliefs in making money in this game but unless you know how a game is going to end , best to just play small and not expect anything.
Tennis is one of the most corrupt sport ...

[Eddy Munny]

The problem with the NFL is that the officiating crew have way too much power and often go out of their way to make use of it. Given this fact, pretty much any game is subject the the subjective motives off the officials and/or their employer.

I'd go so far as to say that with the exception of the quarterback, the most influential person(s) on the field is wearing black and white.