[Da Manster!]

I took Pittsburgh last week on the road against Cleveland...this year we got 80 contestants at $50 per entry....$4,000 pot...winner take all...and you are allowed to buy back in within the first four weeks only...last year I made it to week 13 and fell two contestants short of the grand prize!......as usual, my top two criteria a) chalk or heavy favorite b) home team....and with any luck, a combination of both is usually a good sign and barometer for a strong play.......like the great and late Jimmy V used to say "Just survive and advance!"...


week #2 pick: Oakland Raiders

[Foxx]

I'm on Raiders too. Definitely their easiest game of the year. Seattle is the other chalk game of the week, but I am earmarking them for a possible marginal play in week 9 hosting Washington. Week 9 looks tough and that may be as good as it gets. I am sure some will be on Baltimore, but I don't trust enough at this point for merely beating up on a pathetic Bengals team.

[cankid]

Unless there s a huge upset this week is a snoozer for survivor pools

[Da Manster!]

Unless there s a huge upset this week is a snoozer for survivor pools

agreed...to be honest, Seattle looked like shit against Green Bay last week...their once vaunted O-line has sprung some leaks....I simply can't tail a team like that...but more to your point, hopefully a lot of people took them this week and somehow, someway, the 49'ers find a way to pull it out!...

[Da Manster!]

I'm on Raiders too. Definitely their easiest game of the year. Seattle is the other chalk game of the week, but I am earmarking them for a possible marginal play in week 9 hosting Washington. Week 9 looks tough and that may be as good as it gets. I am sure some will be on Baltimore, but I don't trust enough at this point for merely beating up on a pathetic Bengals team.

yeah, Seattle was the other team I was looking at also...but I don't trust them just yet either...they looked like dogshit last week against Green Bay...I'm really concerned about their O-line...it's real bad...Russell Wilson took a tremendous beating last week...so I'm gonna lay off them regardless of the opponent until they show me otherwise.

[jjgold]

NO GAME IN NFL IS EASY

It is why everyone loses even vs ML by end of year

It is why survivor pools many get knocked out real quick

Good luck MANSTER and NO PICK IS SAFE

[Da Manster!]

thanks Corbin.......my thoughts exactly...that is why you absolutely take the best play possible each and every week!...No way in hell the Raiders lose to the dreaded Jets at home, right?

[Foxx]

yeah, Seattle was the other team I was looking at also...but I don't trust them just yet either...they looked like dogshit last week against Green Bay...I'm really concerned about their O-line...it's real bad...Russell Wilson took a tremendous beating last week...so I'm gonna lay off them regardless of the opponent until they show me otherwise.

Seattle's oline was terrible in 2016. They still managed to win all but 1 home game, but I agree, they're more risky this week than Oakland.

[Da Manster!]

so far so good...onto week#3...not even going to overthink it or try to get cute....

Week #3 pick...New England Patriots

[Da Manster!]

whew!...that was close!...but another win and that's all that matters...survive and advance, baby!...

[Foxx]

Yeah, I was in the sane boat. Got lucky on that one. Some people dropping out on PIT and maybe GB too.

[Str8Mush4Life]

Yeah, I was in the sane boat. Got lucky on that one. Some people dropping out on PIT and maybe GB too.

I rolled with Tennessee yesterday. If NE and GB would have lost that would have wiped out most of my pool and left only 10 of us

[Foxx]

I was targeting ATL for this week. Not for sure yet though as I like to reevaluate every tuesday.

[Da Manster!]

I'm thinking Seattle or Atlanta this week...damn, not sure if I can trust the Seahawks just yet...they are 1 - 2 and somewhat reeling...that O-line is terrible this year and Russell Wilson is getting hit, hurried, or sacked on just about every other play.

[Foxx]

If it gets that far, week 9 is a critical week this year. A lot of teams on bye and the best picks will all be very marginal plays: Sea v Was, Jac v Cin, Atl @ Car is all I see. I may decide this week based on what I deem the better play that week.

[Da Manster!]

alright, fellas...going with the Falcons this week....at home vs. an inconsistent bills team that struggles on the road...not to mention their offensive woes and coming off an emotional home victory against a good Denver team...letdown city and a slap back into reality!...Matt Ryan and company will be a little too much for the Bills and no way in hell Buffalo pulls off the upset in Atlanta.

week#4 pick: Atlanta Falcons

[WWCD]

What is your pool sitting at? The one I am in has about a $6k pot, 117 entries left. 2 are mine.

Week 3 was awesome. Knocked out over 50 players!

[Da Manster!]

What is your pool sitting at? The one I am in has about a $6k pot, 117 entries left. 2 are mine.

Week 3 was awesome. Knocked out over 50 players!

this year we have around 90 players and $50 a shot...so the pot is at least $4,500 (winner take all)...but its probably closer to $6,000 because you are allowed to buy back in at $100 if your team loses within the first four weeks...so this is the last week for a mulligan...I'm pretty sure at last check we lost about 20 players last week...and I know some of them bought back in....last year, there were still 10 of us left by week #13 when I got eliminated by Atlanta!..remember that game against KC?...Falcons had the game won but then the extra point gets blocked and the Chiefs run it all the way back for a 2PT conversion!!.......damn, I was pissed off!!...you have a better chance of hitting the lotto or getting struck by lightning than losing a game that way!....

[WWCD]

Good luck sir. I am leaning to utilize Seahawks/Packers or Falcons/Packers this week, but have not dug into that much yet.

[SamsNCharge99]

I don't know what happened to my year long thread so I'll join up on this one

I still have 3 entries left. 86 were eliminated this week and I have 206 remaining entries in my pool. GBAY and NE both got lucky last week for sure.

GBay -7 home to Bears. Gbay and NE popular last week and my guess is they will be this week as well. GBay coming off come from behind victory to Cincy last week now home on TNF. Bears had an impressive win home to Steelers and have a strong run game, but weak pass game. Gbay should win, but I'll Gbay for later in the year, hope for the upset.

New England -9 home to Carolina. NE at home will always have tons of picks. Me personally, I'm waiting to use NE later in the year. Honestly they got lucky to win last week. Maybe the even weeks they play better than the odd weeks. Certainly not a bad pick, but I try to save teams like NE as long as possible before using them.

Atlanta -8 home to Bills. Denver last week was in a huge let down spot playing in Buffalo and Buffalo played well enough to win. Now traveling on the road in Atlanta where Falcons offense has been rolling and they are 3-0. This is a great spot to take Atlanta. Super tough at home and Bills don't have the weapons to match Falcons offense.

Dallas -8.5 home to Rams. Great win for the Boys last night and now back home after 2 road games. Defensive line was very impressive last night but Cowboys secondary is always questionable. Rams surprising most being 2-1 and leading NFC West right now. Put up 41 points last week, but that was also against the 49ers. Cowboys should win this game and this will be a popular pick.

Arizona -7 home to 49ers. Arizona offense was great last night.....until the red zone. 1TD in 4 trips doesn't win you football games. 49ers are obviously an awful team and Arizona will be fighting for a win after disappointing loss last night. I don't personally love Arizona this week for Eliminator, but def one on the board that will be popular.

Seattle -14 home to Indy. Indy almost blew a 31-7 lead on Sunday home to the Browns. This team could realistically be 2-1 blowing the lead to Arizona. Seattle is a surprise to most being 1-2 on the year and their offense hasn't been consistent at all. I think the 14 point line is very high, but for eliminator spread means nothing as we all know. Another popular pick, Seattle should win at home

KC -7 home to Redskins. The final 3-0 team on the year. Hunt has been a god damn beast so far. Redskins coming off impressive home win to Oakland is certainly in a let down situation here. KC has been great the last 3-4 seasons during the regular season and suck in playoffs. Good spot for KC here.

That's 7 solid teams to choose from this week. Obviously other games on the board, but those are ones with spreads 7 or higher.

For me personally, I'm staying away from NE and Gbay as I can find spots later in the year. As of Tuesday, I'm going with Seattle, Dallas, and KC for my 3 entries.

I think Atlanta you can wait on and I just don't like the Arizona game.

Thoughts?

[Da Manster!]

good, solid, analysis Sam.......of all the games that you mentioned, I still think Atlanta is the best bet...it's my pick as well...one thing I don't do is look ahead...I never say I can use team "A" or team "B" later down the road simply because it don't matter if you lose this sunday...always use the best bet or best play possible on the entire board...like I said, just survive and advance baby...take it one week at a time...I'll worry about next week when it gets here and if I am fortunate enough to make it that far...as far as your other games go...Bears, Skins, Rams, 49'ers, and Colts are all more than capable of pulling off the upset and winning straight up...all of the respective favored teams have deficiencies and weaknesses...I'm still a little reluctant to trust Arizona, Seattle, Dallas, and Green Bay just yet...but you are more than welcome to comment and post your play on this thread my brother!...

[Da Manster!]

@Sam...one good reason why never to look ahead and save "good" teams for later on down the road...I forget to mention this in my previous post (#21)...but if for no other reason, you simply don't know what's going to happen injury wise...that is something that you can't handicap for until it's too late...for example, you said you would like to use Green Bay and NE for later in the year...that's all fine and good but what happens if Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson suffer major injuries in the next week or so and are done for the rest of the season?...what happens if Tom Brady gets injured and some other key starters on both teams and they are put on IR?..I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'....

[SamsNCharge99]

Multiple strategies in terms of eliminator. I 100% agree. If i have pats atlanta gbay ext week 12 lets just say still available but lose week 10 its all for nothing.

However if i gamble early and have those teams late i have an advantage over remaining entries left. I look back at last year i was eliminated week 16 and had seattle. Seattle lost but i had (point spread wise) the best remaining entry and best chance to win and got fukked

the good thing with 3 entries is i can gamble on some entries and pick the best team on another entry. I started with 4 and still have 3 left.

You are right take it week by week but i still like to somewhat have a vision for all 17 weeks. Not official picks for all 17 weeks but at least a guideline