[thomorino]

I like Carolina at -6. Carolina struggled to run the ball against Buffalo's strong front seven and the mediocre offensive line struggled with Buffalo's pass rush, but New Orleans's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Drew Brees was solid week 1, but most of his passes are short and mid-range throws, and Carolina's linebackers are great in coverage. The Saints were solid on the road offensively against the Vikings, moving the ball but failing in the red zone, but that game was in a dome. Carolina is playing New England next week, but they are only 2-0 and Newton usually plays his best at home.

[Ra77er]

No 88

[lakerboy]

You betting every game?

[thomorino]

You betting every game?

I'm betting 2 games.

[lakerboy]

I'm betting 2 games.

Okay. Good luck. Personally I like the saints. Panthers haven't been very good so far despite winning.

[thomorino]

Okay. Good luck. Personally I like the saints. Panthers haven't been very good so far despite winning.

Yeah, that's the value, if the Panthers had been great the line would be 9.5 and we'd have to bet the Saints or not bet the game. Buffalo's front seven is very good and the Panthers have never been a great road offense, now they get a garbage defense at home and a quarterback who usually struggles on grass. If Buffalo couldn't run on Carolina I don't see the Saints having much success, and I don't think Brees and these receivers are good enough to win without a running game on the road.

[KVB]

So did you cap the game or is this just a subjective guess at value?

Value is numerical and requires handicapping to ascertain.

It's obvious you've watched some football overt the last two weeks, but throwing around terms like value is a bit bothersome, unless you've actually handicapped the games.

I understand the way value is used around here, often so subjective, but did you actually cap the game? Thinking and feeling are dangerous ways to handicap and only a very few select individuals can win over time with that type of betting.

Do you have at least a penciled in prediction?

Good Luck.

[thomorino]

So did you cap the game or is this just a subjective guess at value?

Value is numerical and requires handicapping to ascertain.

It's obvious you've watched some football overt the last two weeks, but throwing around terms like value is a bit bothersome, unless you've actually handicapped the games.

I understand the way value is used around here, often so subjective, but did you actually cap the game? Thinking and feeling are dangerous ways to handicap and only a very few select individuals can win over time with that type of betting.

Do you have at least a penciled in prediction?

Good Luck.

Obviously value is subjective, we don't all have the same opinion about every team or there would be no betting market.

Here's my breakdown of the game - much of it in the write-up. I think the Saints are overvalued in Vegas's power ranking - the season win total for this team was 8.5 before the season started even after their left tackle Armstead went out. Here are my power rankings.

I think Carolina is 2-3 points better than an average team and I think they are much better at home. I think the Saints are 2 points worse than an average team so I think Carolina is about 5 points better than New Orleans on a neutral, I give them about 3 to 3.5 points for home advantage, my line for the game is 8.5-9.

[lakerboy]

Yeah but if your line is 8.5 and the real line is 6 don't your see an issue there?

[thomorino]

Yeah but if your line is 8.5 and the real line is 6 don't your see an issue there?

What the fuk is the real line - I have no clue what the line will be by kickoff and neither do you. Vegas makes mistakes, Atlanta was -2.5 last week on the opener.

[funnyb25]

What the penetrate is the real line - I have no clue what the line will be by kickoff and neither do you. Vegas makes mistakes, Atlanta was -2.5 last week on the opener.

Your parents made a mistake

[thomorino]

Your parents made a mistake

Dude, go drive your station wagon and post your little soccer videos - I GET YOU DON'T LIKE ME. Go away.

[funnyb25]

Dude, go drive your station wagon and post your little soccer videos - I GET YOU DON'T LIKE ME. Go away.

I actually LOVE you...so, you are correct with that assessment

[thomorino]

I actually LOVE you...so, you are correct with that assessment

I like the car you drive in your videos, looks like a camry, I drove an LE in high school, Good car when I was 16. I love you too - keep posting your college football leans, my favorites was your take on Jackson being the best player in college football since he destroyed the 2 best defenses in the country, Purdue and North Carolina.

[Ryermkd]

Must be another busy day at the practice...

[Ra77er]

I would be wary of falling in love here.

[thomorino]

Must be another busy day at the practice...

I don't really want to post more than once or twice a day in these threads, and I'm not going to respond to funny and his broke dik crew anymore, I just can't believe these people have time to do this.

[2daBank]

Have to go back to 2014 for last time a game between these 2 was decided by more than 5. Last 3 all by a fg. Saints don't seem to have much problem outside in Carolina.

Panthers lbs are great but their secondary suspect and this be 1st time all season they face a team capable of testing them. They have allowed Tyrod and hoyer to complete 68% of their passes combined, were 29th in league last year in opponents completion percentage.

Aints d been getting torched by proficient passing attacks which panthers will never be mistaken for having and they even worse now that sCam missing his security blanket . Saints rushing d been fairly respectable, cooks didn't get off till late against them when they were worn down. They be able to sell out vs run here without much threat of getting beat on big pass plays.

Not gonna sell low on a Desperate saints team who was projected to improve but had misfortune of starting the year w 2 very tough matchups, now going against a panther team that has had 2 cakewalk opponents. Flip the schedules and saints be 2-0 and panthers be 0-2 and this line would be 3/3.5 where it should be.

Clearly value subjective cause not sure how one thinks there value in panthers -6..

[grease lightnin]

Morino what do you drive now?

[lonegambler23]

You betting every game?

lol

[thomorino]

Have to go back to 2014 for last time a game between these 2 was decided by more than 5. Last 3 all by a fg. Saints don't seem to have much problem outside in Carolina.

Panthers lbs are great but their secondary suspect and this be 1st time all season they face a team capable of testing them. They have allowed Tyrod and hoyer to complete 68% of their passes combined, were 29th in league last year in opponents completion percentage.

Aints d been getting torched by proficient passing attacks which panthers will never be mistaken for having and they even worse now that sCam missing his security blanket . Saints rushing d been fairly respectable, cooks didn't get off till late against them when they were worn down. They be able to sell out vs run here without much threat of getting beat on big pass plays.

Not gonna sell low on a Desperate saints team who was projected to improve but had misfortune of starting the year w 2 very tough matchups, now going against a panther team that has had 2 cakewalk opponents. Flip the schedules and saints be 2-0 and panthers be 0-2 and this line would be 3/3.5 where it should be.

Clearly value subjective cause not sure how one thinks there value in panthers -6..

Are you saying the Vikings have a better passing game than Carolina - that's a joke, obviously Cam was going to start slow after shoulder surgery and the fact he didn't get many reps in preseason.

Your stat about Hoyer and Tyrod Taylor completing 68% of their passes is a joke, they threw 3 yard passes the whole game, Taylor and Hoyer both averaged less than 6 yards a pass, which is absolute joke in the NFL.

The concern I have is the look ahead to New England next week for Carolina, so this will be an average bet for me, but the Saints are not the same team they were last year with Brandon Cooks gone and Armstead hurt, Carolina's defense should be better this year with new additions in the secondary and the younger players improving.

[jjgold]

Carolina is not the same team anymore and their quarterback is not the same so you have to take Brees one more time

[2daBank]

Damn right minny has a better passing game than panthers, not even close.. love how you get rude anyrime someone disagrees. Carry on laying inflated numbers.

[shadymcgrady]

Such a tough game to call, 6 points is alot for division rivals such as these teams and where they are right now

Cam issue in addition to his health imo is his accuracy. It was always terrible throughout his career but was covered up with bandaids in the form of big and lumbering pass catchers.

Kelvin Benjamin and Devin funchess are glorified tight ends and Greg Olsen was his best pass catcher throughout his career as a tight end. His arm strength was amplified with deep threat ted Ginn who is now gone

Carolina made a few changes in order to encourage more passing and accuracy. So far cam is struggling to adapt

[thomorino]

I think the Olsen injury hurts, but I don't see it as a big issue against a bad defense New Orleans.

[thomorino]

Damn right minny has a better passing game than panthers, not even close.. love how you get rude anyrime someone disagrees. Carry on laying inflated numbers.

You came into my thread and said thinking Carolina -6 has value is a joke, and now you are complaining I'm rude - I'm going to presume that's a joke.You made a stupid argument that completing 68% of your passes is impressive when you throw for 125 yards for the whole game and I called you out, it was a stupid argument and deserved to be called out.

[dlowilly]

Mark my words, Mcaffery will be uge in this game and no one has mentioned his all purpose yards threat for this matchup.

[shadymcgrady]

Carolina clearly the better team but these division games can be so unpredictable

[thomorino]

Carolina clearly the better team but these division games can be so unpredictable

I agree with you in many cases, but Vegas had the Saints win total at 8.5 before the season started and last year the Saints had Cooks and Armstead, this year they lost both and didn't replace them. Willie Snead was an important player for the Saints too and he is not likely to play. This is a different Saints team than the one we've seen the last couple years.

[shadymcgrady]

To be fair, both teams are much different than yrs past. Carolina better mostly bc of kuechly but good luck. I wouldn't even know where to begin if I had to play this game

[2daBank]

Didn't say anything you said was a joke cause I'm not a disrespectful piece of shit. Typical angry pussy in the net

[USCPHILLYGUY]

Have to go back to 2014 for last time a game between these 2 was decided by more than 5. Last 3 all by a fg. Saints don't seem to have much problem outside in Carolina.

Panthers lbs are great but their secondary suspect and this be 1st time all season they face a team capable of testing them. They have allowed Tyrod and hoyer to complete 68% of their passes combined, were 29th in league last year in opponents completion percentage.

Aints d been getting torched by proficient passing attacks which panthers will never be mistaken for having and they even worse now that sCam missing his security blanket . Saints rushing d been fairly respectable, cooks didn't get off till late against them when they were worn down. They be able to sell out vs run here without much threat of getting beat on big pass plays.

Not gonna sell low on a Desperate saints team who was projected to improve but had misfortune of starting the year w 2 very tough matchups, now going against a panther team that has had 2 cakewalk opponents. Flip the schedules and saints be 2-0 and panthers be 0-2 and this line would be 3/3.5 where it should be.

Clearly value subjective cause not sure how one thinks there value in panthers -6..

this is what you said banker. Nothing disrespectful just disagreeing. Typical response from OP though

[thomorino]

this is what you said banker. Nothing disrespectful just disagreeing. Typical response from OP though

Lol, I could care less, but when you say you are not sure how one thinks there is value at -6 you are saying my pick is a joke.

[Booya711]

New Orleans it is

[thomorino]

Looks like about 60% of straight bets and 80% of moneyline bets on the Saints.