[PhattDaddy204]

​Chiefs/Patriots over 48

[BamaCapper]

Hello. New member here. I am on the under. KC D should be solid. I don't see this game going over 42, much less 48.

[PhattDaddy204]

Hello. New member here. I am on the under. KC D should be solid. I don't see this game going over 42, much less 48.

I see all of SBR on under. I like going against the sheep.

GL

[BamaCapper]

I was on the under before I joined. I couldn't take the spread. Bradys favorite receiver is out. I think the game plan changes. I amnot willing to bet against Brady in a home opener though. This game was almost a no play, but I think under 48 is solid. With Edelman out and KC not having much of a receivers corp, I sense a defensive battle. GL.

[PhattDaddy204]

Gronk is back so no problem for Brady scoring against KC defense. Like I said all SBR ON UNDER!!!

[BamaCapper]

Fade it til you make it. This one isn't the one to fade though. But, I am new here. What do I know?

[PhattDaddy204]

Fade it til you make it. This one isn't the one to fade though. But, I am new here. What do I know?

Reverse your bet and thank me later.

[vegaschulo]

Good to see you back phattdaddy..BOL this season i will be looking forward to your plays..CHEERS BRO!!!

[BamaCapper]

Reverse your bet and thank me later.

I'll be fine.

[WWCD]

I don't feel strongly about either side of this bet, but if I played it I would take the over.

[PhattDaddy204]

I don't feel strongly about either side of this bet, but if I played it I would take the over.

Smart man

[PhattDaddy204]

Good to see you back phattdaddy..BOL this season i will be looking forward to your plays..CHEERS BRO!!!

Thanks bro

[Calgunner23]

Here we go again! Cheers fellas! Let's make some $$$. Feels good to be back.

[PhattDaddy204]

here we go again! Cheers fellas! Let's make some $$$. Feels good to be back.

feels real good!!!!!!

[Time is Money]

welcome back PD. pats/over teaser for me I think kc can keep it close but I'll lay under a fg all day in this spot

[PhattDaddy204]

welcome back PD. pats/over teaser for me I think kc can keep it close but I'll lay under a fg all day in this spot

Agree Time

Sharps pounding the line down to -8 now in Vegas.

[PhattDaddy204]

Fade it til you make it. This one isn't the one to fade though. But, I am new here. What do I know?

Forgot to tell you Craig Carlton on under. YIKES

[Capitols44]

Although New England has a higher rate of covering spreads more than 7 points than most teams, we still find it statistically favorable to take the underdogs in these situations.
In 2016, KC scored on average 23.9 pts/game while New England scored 30.4 pts/game. This lends itself to a spread closer to NE by 7, not by 9.
We expect KC to play a control game in this matchup, especially as they put Kareem Hunt to the true test as the starting RB. Expect a heavy running game, but with just enough passing to take advantage of New England’s Defense trying to stuff the rookie running back.
Even if KC can’t capitalize on Hunt performing as or better than hoped, the increased running plays should mean more time in possession of the ball. The best way historically to prevent Tom Brady from scoring on you is simply to try to limit his time holding the ball.
We expect this line to hold @ NE-8.5 or NE -9 so take your time to make the wager in case any last minute changes happen (unknown injuries, etc). It’s also possible that the New England bias in betting steps in and the line moves closer to 10. If that happens, take KC at 10. It likely won’t last long as other bettors step in to take advantage of one of the magic spread numbers (3,7,10) Take k.c. at+10 buy a couple of points.

[PhattDaddy204]

Although New England has a higher rate of covering spreads more than 7 points than most teams, we still find it statistically favorable to take the underdogs in these situations.
In 2016, KC scored on average 23.9 pts/game while New England scored 30.4 pts/game. This lends itself to a spread closer to NE by 7, not by 9.
We expect KC to play a control game in this matchup, especially as they put Kareem Hunt to the true test as the starting RB. Expect a heavy running game, but with just enough passing to take advantage of New England’s Defense trying to stuff the rookie running back.
Even if KC can’t capitalize on Hunt performing as or better than hoped, the increased running plays should mean more time in possession of the ball. The best way historically to prevent Tom Brady from scoring on you is simply to try to limit his time holding the ball.
We expect this line to hold @ NE-8.5 or NE -9 so take your time to make the wager in case any last minute changes happen (unknown injuries, etc). It’s also possible that the New England bias in betting steps in and the line moves closer to 10. If that happens, take KC at 10. It likely won’t last long as other bettors step in to take advantage of one of the magic spread numbers (3,7,10) Take k.c. at+10 buy a couple of points.

Nice write-up on game. Line was -9.5 this morning and now down to -8 in Vegas at some shops. Bet the under New England's weak defense will be exposed by Andy Reid.

[Renegades]

After betting the kc/pitt over in last years playoffs I swore I would never bet another Alex Smith led team over again

Phil Simms did a clip on Smith and showed 5-6 plays where he had a chance to rip it in there downfield but he didnt. He checked it down for a nice safe 5 yard pass.. And thats his mentality and thats why he will never take a team toe to toe with the elite qbs

[2daBank]

After betting the kc/pitt over in last years playoffs I swore I would never bet another Alex Smith led team over again

Phil Simms did a clip on Smith and showed 5-6 plays where he had a chance to rip it in there downfield but he didnt. He checked it down for a nice safe 5 yard pass.. And thats his mentality and thats why he will never take a team toe to toe with the elite qbs

I somewhat expect smith to attempt to push the ball downfield a little more this year. Whether he is successful at it or not remains to be seen but think as a whole kc has made a effort to open up some and if Alex continues refusing to take shots he might be watching the rookie do so before seasons end. Lol.. just a hunch.

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Banker!!!

[winitall]

Hi PhattD,,,,nice seeing you again, good luck this year. I am tailing you all the way my friend....

[PhattDaddy204]

Hi PhattD,,,,nice seeing you again, good luck this year. I am tailing you all the way my friend....

Thanks for kind words

[PhattDaddy204]

Banker!!!

Yes sir

[PhattDaddy204]

I somewhat expect smith to attempt to push the ball downfield a little more this year. Whether he is successful at it or not remains to be seen but think as a whole kc has made a effort to open up some and if Alex continues refusing to take shots he might be watching the rookie do so before seasons end. Lol.. just a hunch.

I love the fact Smith has something to prove. I think he has a great year.

[JayDr3am]

Anyone see PhatDaddy from last season?...Got to find him JDream.

HOLY SHIT WE FOUND HIM

lol BOL this season phat

[PhattDaddy204]

I somewhat expect smith to attempt to push the ball downfield a little more this year. Whether he is successful at it or not remains to be seen but think as a whole kc has made a effort to open up some and if Alex continues refusing to take shots he might be watching the rookie do so before seasons end. Lol.. just a hunch.

I love the fact Smith has something to prove. I think he has a great year.

[winitall]

Yes we did....Santa is coming for my kids....

[SBRMAN23]

Great call

[vegaschulo]

One of the best here in sbr..THANK YOU DADDY!!!

[PhattDaddy204]

One of the best here in sbr..THANK YOU DADDY!!!

Your welcome

[PhattDaddy204]

great call

thanks

[PhattDaddy204]

Yes we did....Santa is coming for my kids....

Merry Xmas. LOl

[Ebumdude]

Congrats. Good call on the over!