Thursday Plays 9/7
¤ Chiefs +9 -108
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Alex Smith should have some time in the pocket to scan the field with the lack of a pass rush from the Patriots, but they don't have a downfield threat and likely won't have too much success running the ball either. But at least he shouldn't get pressured into making a big mistake. They will have to get Hunt and Hill involved in the short passing game with some screens and try to find a way to get Kelce open and hope somebody can break a tackle or two.
Their defense led the league last season and is great at forcing turnovers and that's always key in football and hard as hell to predict. The Patriots had the fewest turnovers in the league last season and Brady doesn't throw too many picks, so they're going to have to get to him with that good pass rush and hope to get a strip sack or a fumble or two elsewhere. Brady hates pressure up the middle, but they're going to have to get pressure without blitzing too much or Brady will pick them apart. They might be able to use some stunts and get those outside speed rushers coming from the inside or change up their alignments once in while.
I'm going with the Chiefs in the first game of the year on National TV, even with the great record below for Home teams in the opening Thursday game. We know what to expect from the Patriots, but 9 points is a lot to give in the 1st game against another pretty good team leaving a lot of room for a back door. They'll need good coaching and to win the turnover battle and they've had all off season to get ready.
The Patriots are 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS L10.
Patriots 3-3 L6 week 1 games at Home.
Home Teams were 12-6 ATS on Thursdays last season.
Home Teams week 1 on Thursdays are 10-2-2 ATS, 13-0 SU L13.
Andy Reid 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more points
Chiefs finished the season 6-0 SU & ATS on the Road last year.