1. #1
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    NFL Picks & More

    Thursday Plays 9/7

    Chiefs +9 -108
    ______________________________

    Alex Smith should have some time in the pocket to scan the field with the lack of a pass rush from the Patriots, but they don't have a downfield threat and likely won't have too much success running the ball either. But at least he shouldn't get pressured into making a big mistake. They will have to get Hunt and Hill involved in the short passing game with some screens and try to find a way to get Kelce open and hope somebody can break a tackle or two.

    Their defense led the league last season and is great at forcing turnovers and that's always key in football and hard as hell to predict. The Patriots had the fewest turnovers in the league last season and Brady doesn't throw too many picks, so they're going to have to get to him with that good pass rush and hope to get a strip sack or a fumble or two elsewhere. Brady hates pressure up the middle, but they're going to have to get pressure without blitzing too much or Brady will pick them apart. They might be able to use some stunts and get those outside speed rushers coming from the inside or change up their alignments once in while.

    I'm going with the Chiefs in the first game of the year on National TV, even with the great record below for Home teams in the opening Thursday game. We know what to expect from the Patriots, but 9 points is a lot to give in the 1st game against another pretty good team leaving a lot of room for a back door. They'll need good coaching and to win the turnover battle and they've had all off season to get ready.


    The Patriots are 10-0 SU & 8-1-1 ATS L10.

    Patriots 3-3 L6 week 1 games at Home.

    Home Teams were 12-6 ATS on Thursdays last season.

    Home Teams week 1 on Thursdays are 10-2-2 ATS, 13-0 SU L13.


    Andy Reid 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more points

    Chiefs finished the season 6-0 SU & ATS on the Road last year.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  2. #2
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    I'm also considering the Cardinals who are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS L7 vs the Lions. The Saints who are 18-4 ATS L22 as a dog and beat the Vikings SU the last 4 times they've played, and the Chargers who play the Broncos who are 3-9 ATS L12 at Home vs them.

    Others....

    The Bears have beaten the Falcons the last 5 times they've played.

    The Bengals have beaten the Ravens the last 5 times they've played.

    The Giants are 5-0 ATS against the Cowboys the last 5 times they've played.

    The Packers have won the last 7 at Home vs the Seahawks going 6-1 ATS.

    The Redskins have beaten the Eagles 5 straight times and 6-0 ATS L6.

    The 49ers are 4-16 ATS, 2-13 ATS L15 and 1-8 ATS at Home vs the Panthers.

    The Texans are 16-4-2 ATS L22 as a favorite and beat the Jags 6 str8 times, 4-2 SU, just 1-4 ATS L5 at Home vs them though.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  3. #3
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Week 1 at Home

    HOU 7-4 SU&ATS L11 & 8-3 Under L11

    CIN 2-7 ATS L9 & 6-3 Over L9

    WAS 0-3 SU&ATS L3

    DET 8-1 SU L9 & 6-1 ATS L7 & 7-4 L11 Over

    CLE 5-12 ATS L17 & 1-8 ATS L9

    SF 11-2 SU L13 & 9-3-1 ATS L13

    LAR 2-7 ATS L9

    DEN 15-3 SU L18 and 13-5 ATS L18

    -------------------------
    Week 1 on Road

    ATL 5-11 SU L16 and 1-4 ATS L5

    BAL 3-7 SU&ATS L10 & 7-3 Under

    LVR 3-13 SU L16 & 4-0 ATS L4

    PHI 4-1 SU L5

    ARI 5-15 SU L15

    NYJ 9-3-2 ATS L14

    PIT 2-5 SU&ATS L7

    SEA 6-12 SU&ATS L18 & 1-6 ATS L7

    IND 0-5 SU L5 & 1-4 ATS L5

    NYG 1-7 SU L8 & 2-6 ATS L8 & 9-2 Over L11

    NO 0-4 SU&ATS L4

    SD 7-3 ATS L10
    --------------------------

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  4. #4
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Sunday Plays 9/10


    Jaguars +5.5 -110 (5Dimes)
    Ravens +3 -113 (Heritage)
    Titans -3 +102 (Heritage)
    Eagles -1 -110 (5Dimes)
    Cardinals -2 -108 (Heritage)
    ______________________________

    I'll try to write up my thoughts when I get more time later.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  5. #5
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    On titans and Pretty close to playing eagles as well.

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  6. #6
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 9/10


    Jaguars +5.5 -110 (5Dimes)
    Ravens +3 -113 (Heritage)
    Titans -3 +102 (Heritage)
    Eagles -1 -110 (5Dimes)
    Cardinals -2 -108 (Heritage)

    Teaser: (Jets +14.5/ Giants +10) -110

    ______________________________
    Added a teaser.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  7. #7
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    Gl brother

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  8. #8
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Whisenhunt is in the top 5 worst coaches list for me, even before that stupid onside kick attempt to start the season.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  9. #9
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Seahawks ML +115 (5Dimes)
    ____________________________
    Addition.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  10. #10
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Monday Plays 9/11

    Saints +3 (-105) (5Dimes)
    Chargers +3 (-118) (Heritage)
    ______________________________

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  11. #11
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Week 1 Results

    Thursday Plays 9/7

    WIN - Chiefs +9 -108
    ______________________________
    Sunday Plays 9/10

    WIN - Jaguars +5.5 -110 (5Dimes)
    WIN - Ravens +3 -113 (Heritage)
    LOSS - Titans -3 +102 (Heritage)
    WIN - Eagles -1 -110 (5Dimes)
    LOSS - Cardinals -2 -108 (Heritage)
    LOSS - Seahawks ML +115 (5Dimes)
    LOSS - Teaser: (Jets +14.5/ Giants +10) -110
    ______________________________
    Monday Plays 9/11

    LOSS - Saints +3 (-105) (5Dimes)
    PUSH - Chargers +3 (-118) (Heritage)
    ______________________________
    Season = 4-5-1 for -1.23
    ___________________________
    ATS Total = 4-3-1 for +0.87

    (Dogs = 3-1-1 for +1.95 )
    (Favs = 1-2 for -1.08 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------
    ML Total = 0-1 for -1.00

    (Dogs = 0-1 for -1.00 )
    (Favs = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------
    O/U Total = 0-0 for +0.00
    (Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (Under = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------
    Parlays = 0-0 for +0.00
    ---------------------------
    Teasers = 0-1 for -1.10
    ___________________________
    Week 1 = 4-5-1 for -1.23

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  12. #12
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Thursday Plays 9/14

    Bengals -5.5 -108 (Heritage)
    ______________________________

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  13. #13
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Sunday Plays 9/17

    Jaguars +1 +100 (5Dimes)
    Browns +8 -108 (Heritage)
    Lions +3 -105 (5Dimes)
    ____________________________



    Jaguars 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS L6 at Home vs the Titans.
    Jaguars 28-14 SU and 24-16-2 ATS at Home after a Road win.
    Jaguars 1-8 SUATS L9 in Week 2.
    Jaguars have to fly to London next week and teams are 10-20-2 ATS in that spot.

    Titans 1-4 SU L5 in Week 2.
    Titans 1-8 SU L9 and 1-9 ATS L10 on the Road after a Home Loss.

    The Under is 15-5 in the series at Jacksonville.
    The Under is 6-12-1 L19 games in Week 2 for the Titans.

    I like the Jaguars in this one. Mariota didn't look too sharp throwing the ball to me and if Bortles can be a game manager type QB instead of forcing so many throws, they might be a decent team. After a couple of seasons of being over-rated early, the Jags are a bit under the radar right now.
    ________________________________________


    Ravens 16-2 SU L18 vs the Browns, 11-7 ATS.
    Ravens 2-5 ATS L7 at Home vs the Browns.
    Ravens 0-4 ATS L4 at Home after a Road Win.
    Ravens 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS L6 Home games in Week 2.
    Ravens 4-0 SUATS L4 at Home vs their Division.
    Ravens have to fly to London next week and teams are 10-20-2 ATS in that spot.
    Flacco is still bothered by his injury and has trouble throwing deep.

    Browns 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS L3 Week 2 games.
    Browns have lost 13 str8 Road games and 18 out of last 19.
    Browns 4-9 ATS L13 on the Road.
    Browns 2-23 SU L25 Road games vs their Division.

    The Under is 7-2 L9 in the series at Baltimore.
    The Under is 4-0 L4 in Ravens Division Home games.

    The Browns always seem to give the Ratbirds a game and I think they can hang with the Ravens in this rivalary game and if nothing else get a backdoor cover late.
    __________________________________


    Lions 3-1 ATS L4 MNF games.
    Lions 0-5 SUATS L5 Week 2 games.

    Giants 3-6 SUATS L9 MNF games.
    Giants 0-5 ATS L5 Week 2 games.
    Home Favorites on MNF of 4 or less are 2-10-1 ATS L13.

    Stafford>Manning and has more weapons and a better defense, the public got killed last week so I'll chance taking a public dog on the Road on MNF, something I don't like to do a lot.
    ______________________________________

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  14. #14
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Bills 5-1 SU vs the Panthers and 4-1-1 ATS, only play ever 3-4 years though.
    Bills 4-8 L12 on the Road after a Home Win.
    Bills 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS L4 vs the NFC.

    Panthers 10-4 L14 at Home after a Road Win.
    Panthers 3-0 SUATS L3 Week 2 games.
    Panthers 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS L5 vs the AFC.

    The Under is 10-4 in Panther Home games after they won on the Road.
    Last 4 have went Over when the Bills play the NFC.


    At this point, until Cam Newton proves he is healthy, I trust Tyrod Taylor a big more as well as the Bills defense. I think points are tempting.
    _______________________________


    Saints 6-2 ATS vs the Patriots but they only play each other every 3-4 years, the Over is also 6-2.
    Saints 15-3 SUATS L18 at Home after a Road loss.
    Saints 0-4 SU L4 after losing in Week 1.
    Saints 8-1 SUATS after a Monday Night Game.
    Saints 5-10 SU L15 vs the AFC.

    Patriots 8-2 SU L10 vs the NFC.
    Patriots 13-1 SU and 11-2-1 ATS L14 on the Road after a Home Loss.
    Patriots 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS after a Thursday Night Game.

    I lean the Saints here but need a little more confidence. I think both defenses are bad, but the Patriots are hurting without Edleman and Brees has a few weapons and home field with 6 points.
    __________________________________


    Colts 10-3 SU L13 at Home after a Road Loss, 2-4 ATS L6.
    Colts 0-4 SUATS L4 Week 2 games.

    Cardinals 1-5 SU L6 and 1-4 L5 ATS on the Road after a Road loss.
    Cardinals 6-0 ATS L6 and 9-1 ATS L10 in Week 2.
    Cardinals 2-6 ATS L8 vs the AFC.

    The Cardinals should blow the Colts out, but I don't trust the NFL one bit. The Colts will be a popular pick, even at more than a TD Road favorite, but they will also be a popular teaser play. I have no interest in taking the Cardinals except for as my survivor pick.
    _____________________________

    Chargers 9-1 ATS and 8-2 SU L10 after a Monday Night Game.

    _____________________________

    Broncos have went Over 9 straight games after a Monday Night Game.
    _____________________________

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  15. #15
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    I gotta be reading that wrong surely you don't think lions have a better defense than nyg do you? If Odell plays think I'll be on gmen but not exactly sounding like he gonna be ready.,

    I like jags as a teaser option but love the under there.

    Browns make sense should be a dogfight.

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  16. #16
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    I actually like colts now that Brissett starting.. cardinals are terrible in the early time slot losing something like 8 in a row and Johnson accounted for over 35% of their offense!!

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  17. #17
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    The only match-up problem I see the Lions having is covering Vereen out of the backfield, I think they can stop the Giants run game and if ODB plays, he won't be 100% and it seems he gets off to slow starts anyway. Do you actually think the Giants defense is good or something?

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  18. #18
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I gotta be reading that wrong surely you don't think lions have a better defense than nyg do you? If Odell plays think I'll be on gmen but not exactly sounding like he gonna be ready.,

    I like jags as a teaser option but love the under there.

    Browns make sense should be a dogfight.
    Talent wise and on paper, you're right the Giants are better and my statement was wrong, I just like the match-up offense vs defense in this game. Both secondaries are solid, but Stafford has cut down on his INT's a lot since Jim Bob Cooter took over and I have never liked Eli Manning, so if I think defense is gonna get an INT, it would be Detroit's. As far as front 7 goes, the Lions are weak, especially at LB, but I don't think the Giants have the run game to take advantage of that and the Giants front 7 didn't look very good against the Cowboys and a OL that lost some. The Lions did a decent job with the Cardinals WR corps and the Giants are hurting without a healthy ODB. Marshall got one catch in garbage time at the end and Perkins hasn't showed much yet and Shepard is pedestrian at best. Manning will have to use his TE and Vereen out the backfield a lot and I don't think that will be enough to keep pace with the Lions offense who have a new weapon in Galladay and some threats of their own out of the backfield that Stafford can check down to when needed. I know the Giants improved last year and added some players on defense, but they were horrible just 2 years ago and I still don't trust them yet especially with Manning not sustaining drives and keeping his defense on the field.

    Plus the Lions have been good on MNF going 3-1 ATS their L4, while the Giants are 3-6 SU & ATS their L9 MNF games and Home Favs of 4 or less on MNF are 2-10-1 L13.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  19. #19
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    I hear ya, I don't like Eli either, or gmen in particular.. lions just a hard team to trust when they go on the road and play outside.

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  20. #20
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    The Patriots are 18-0 ATS on turf vs a non-divisional opponent when they are averaging less than 3.80 yards per rush.
    The Patriots are 14-0 ATS on turf vs non-divisional opponent that is averaging 13+ passing first downs per game.
    The Patriots are 0-8 ATS as a favorite on turf when facing a team that is allowing an average of more than 375 offensive yards per game.

    The Saints are 18-0 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a loss in which they did not have a 60-plus yard rusher and rushed for better than 2.3 yards per rush.

    The Saints are 13-0 ATS vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a game as a dog in which they allowed at least five third down
    conversions.


    The Raiders are 0-18 ATS off a game as a dog when they are on grass vs a non-divisional opponent that has allowed an average of 370-plus
    yards per game season-to-date.

    The Raiders are 0-16 ATS when they are off a road game and favored over a team that has scored more than 25% of its points from field goals.


    The Cowboys are 0-15 ATS as a favorite after a home game in which they did not commit a turnover.

    The Panthers are 14-0 ATS as a regular season home favorite when they are off a road game and facing an opponent that is averaging at least 360 offensive yards per game.


    The Colts are 0-14 ATS at home off a game as a road dog when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 2.2 turnovers per game season-to-date.


    The Seahawks are 14-0 ATS at home vs a divisional opponent that is averaging less than five yards per play season-to-date.

    The Lions are 0-13 ATS after a game in which they benefitted from a takeaway margin of at least plus two and rushed for fewer than 130 yards.


    The Rams are 12-0 ATS when hosting a team that has at least 2/3 of their first downs through the air season-to-date.

    The Rams are 11-0 ATS at home off a home win by more than four points.

    The Redskins are 11-0 ATS as a dog vs a team that is forcing more than 5.9 punts per game.

    The Browns are 0-11 ATS as a dog vs a team that is averaging at least 30 rushes per game.

    The Steelers are 0-10 ATS as a favorite on grass over a non-divisional opponent when they are off a win as a road favorite in which their opponent converted on four or fewer third downs.


    The Steelers are 0-16 OU as a favorite by more than six points off a game as a favorite in which fewer than one-third of their first downs were from third down.


    The Packers are 14-0 OU as a dog on turf facing an opponent that is averaging at least 371.5 offensive yards per game.


    The Chiefs are 0-14 OU as a favorite and vs a non-divisional opponent that had fewer regular season wins the previous season.


    The Lions are 0-11 OU on the road off a home game in which no receiver had at least 40% of their passing yards.

    The Saints are 0-11 OU off a double-digit loss in which they did not have a 50-plus yard rusher.

    The Bears are 0-11 OU as a TD-plus road dog when they are off a loss and facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  21. #21
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    I hear ya, I don't like Eli either, or gmen in particular.. lions just a hard team to trust when they go on the road and play outside.
    Who are your teams in football? I thought you was a Giants fan for a sec, lol. I hate hearing people talk bad about my team and especially Roethlisberger and the rape BS, but I try to ignore it. I been a fan of his since Miami, Ohio, in fact I wore his college jersey yesterday. He's a hometown guy, his cousin is the principal at my wife's school. He did become a big douche for awhile, but his wife brought him back down to earth.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  22. #22
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Who are your teams in football? I thought you was a Giants fan for a sec, lol. I hate hearing people talk bad about my team and especially Roethlisberger and the rape BS, but I try to ignore it. I been a fan of his since Miami, Ohio, in fact I wore his college jersey yesterday. He's a hometown guy, his cousin is the principal at my wife's school. He did become a big douche for awhile, but his wife brought him back down to earth.
    Oh god no I hate nyg.. honestly I don't really have a nfl team, I'm not much of a fan. I kinda root for chiefs cause they in Missouri but ultimately it all bout gambling for me.

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  23. #23
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 9/17

    Jaguars +1 +100 (5Dimes)
    Browns +8 -108 (Heritage)
    Eagles +5 -108 (Heritage)
    Lions +3 -105 (5Dimes)
    ____________________________
    Added the Eagles.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  24. #24
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by FUqer View Post
    Sunday Plays 9/17


    Jaguars +1 +100 (5Dimes)
    Browns +8 -108 (Heritage)
    Eagles +5 -108 (Heritage)
    Broncos ML +115 (Heritage)
    Falcons -3 -108 (Heritage)
    Lions +3 -105 (5Dimes)

    ____________________________
    Added the Broncos and Falcons. Prolly it for the week. GLA!

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  25. #25
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Lions/Giants Under 42 -110 (5Dimes)
    __________________________________

    I was hoping to get 42.5 but it going the opposite way so I better get 42 while I still can.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  26. #26
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    I don't get any satisfaction out of a game that could of gone either way, a loss is the loss. The Eagles had plenty of chances and a Wentz INT that was deflected at the line was a timely mistake, but it's not that surprising cuz I'm pretty sure Wentz gets a lot of passes batted down at the line.They also held Hunt to 4 yards at half and then let him bust a big one in the 2nd half for a TD. So I don't think it was a bad pick, just a losing one.

    The Browns also had plenty of chances to cover, but Kizer was awful when he wasn't on the sidelines with a headache, he threw 3 INT's and at least one was very costly in the end zone. Their WR's were terrible and that run game that was supposed to be decent, couldn't get going. Again, not a regretful play, but a losing one.

    The Jaguars game started out how I thought, Mariota was having trouble throwing, Murray was doing much, and then my hope of Bortles of being a game manager came crashing to an end and he was his old self again with the turnovers left and right that completely changed the game and led to a blowout.I should of never trusted Bortles but I thought I had some good angles, this was a borderline regrettable play.

    I finally got a win with the Broncos over the Cowboys. They were pumped up at Home, especially that defense and Denver is a tough place to play for teams who don't play there often, especially this early in the season where conditioning may not be up to form yet.

    I got my second win with the Falcons over the Packers in sort of the same situation with the opening of a new stadium in a prime time televised game with the public appearing to be on the Packers.

    Hopefully I can finish the week on a good note with the Lions and the Under tonight. Either way I can't be too mad this week, I went 11-1 in college with my only loss being on a parlay and I made out good on side parlays as well. I still need to get going in the NFL though, so I started there first this week instead of college.

    I would like to include more write-ups but it's a hectic time with MLB, NCAA and NFL and trying to get the last out of the good weather around here. It's easier for me to post trends because I put them in my notepad after I look them up, but it takes much more time to write out my thoughts. Anyway GLA!

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  27. #27
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Thursday Results 9/14

    LOSS - Bengals -5.5 -108 (Heritage)

    ______________________________

    Thursday
    = 0-1 for -1.08
    ___________________________


    Sunday/Monday Results


    LOSS - Jaguars +1 +100 (5Dimes)
    LOSS - Browns +8 -108 (Heritage)
    LOSS - Eagles +5 -108 (Heritage)

    WIN - Broncos ML +115 (Heritage)
    WIN - Falcons -3 -108 (Heritage)
    WIN - Lions +3 -105 (5Dimes)

    WIN - Lions/Giants Under 42 -110 (5Dimes)

    ____________________________
    Weekend
    4-3 for +0.99
    ____________________________

    Season
    = 8-9-1 for -1.32
    ___________________________

    ATS Total = 6-7-1 for -1.37


    (Dogs = 4-4-1 for -0.21 )
    (Favs = 2-3 for -1.16 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------

    ML Total = 1-1 for +0.15


    (Dogs = 1-1 for +0.15 )
    (Favs = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------

    O/U Total = 1-0 for +1.00


    (Over = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (Under = 1-0 for +1.00 )
    (1st H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    (2nd H = 0-0 for +0.00 )
    ---------------------------
    Parlays = 0-0 for +0.00

    ---------------------------
    Teasers = 0-1 for -1.10

    ___________________________

    Week 1 = 4-5-1 for -1.23
    Week 2 = 4-4 for -0.09

    ___________________________________

    Started out 0-4 in early games including that horrible Bengals play, but at least was able to win my final 4. Hopefully I can continue that 4 game streak into next week.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  28. #28
    shopbar picks
    shopbar picks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-08-10
    Posts: 1,917
    Betpoints: 8734

    2 great calls on MNF game. Most of the posterchilds buried a lot of people by trying to be sharp. Eli SUCKS

  29. #29
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Quote Originally Posted by shopbar picks View Post
    2 great calls on MNF game. Most of the posterchilds buried a lot of people by trying to be sharp. Eli SUCKS
    Thanks bro, their OC sure didn't help them at all either, he was terrible, but I enjoyed the running plays while down by 2 scores.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  30. #30
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Rams at 49ers

    49ers 3-0 SUATS L3, 6-2 SUATS L8 vs the Rams, Under 4-0 L4
    49ers 11-3-1 SU L15 at Home vs the Rams, 10-5 ATS
    49ers 4-5 SU and 1-6 ATS L7 on 3 days rest, 0-4 L4 at Home.


    Rams 2-5 SUATS on 3 days rest, 0-2 on the Road.


    49ers 9-2 L11 Under at Home in a division game.
    Rams 11-2 L13 Under on the Road in a division game.


    Home Dogs on Thursday of 5 or less are 13-29 SU and 18-23 ATS and the Over is 26-14-2.
    Home Dogs on 3 days rest and off a Road loss are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS L7.
    Away Favs are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS L8 on 3 days rest after a Home loss.
    Away Favs 4-1 SUATS L5 on 3 days rest.


    Key Injuries:

    49ers - S Eric Reid
    49ers - LB Reuben Foster


    The 49ers have had some success against the Rams, but too much has changed with these two teams
    recently for me to really give much credence to those trends. The Rams looks to have some key advantages in this
    one against the 49ers LB's and Safeties and should win but they are pretty heavily backed right now in a prime-time
    game, and squares might be feeling a little confident after the heavy backed teams did decent last week and they
    might jump all over the Rams. They're the better team, but this is the NFL so this will most likely be a pass for me.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  31. #31
    2daBank
    2daBank's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-26-09
    Posts: 46,696
    Betpoints: 22

    Feel same way, lambs more talented but not ready to back them as very popular road favs on Thursday night Shitfest.

    As you mentioned I think you pretty much have to disregard anything in past w lambs as fisher was one of worst coaches I've ever seen unless he was facing Carrol, lol..

    BTP
    Week 6
    4-1-0 351 pts


  32. #32
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Ravens vs Jaguars ( In London )

    Jags are a regular in London and have won the last 2 seasons there SU and ATS, all 4 of their games have went Over.
    Jags 1-6 SU and ATS L7 Weeks 3 games.
    Jags 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS L8 after playing two str8 Division games.
    Jags 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS after losing a Home Division game.

    Ravens started 2-0 last year and beat the Jaguars 19-17 on the Road to go to 3-0.
    Ravens 6-2 ATS L8 after winning 2 str8 Division games.
    Ravens 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS L13 Week 3 games.


    Last 5 have went Under in the series.


    Favs 19-5-1 SU and 16-8-1 ATS at a neutral site in regular season.


    Key Injuries:


    Ravens - G Marshal Yanda


    Seems to be a lot of unknown variables in this one with the game being in London, the Jags do have the advantage
    of being a regular there every season and this is the first time the Ravens are making the trip. I would like to see
    how the Ravens are going to plan out when they arrive and their practise schedule. But one thing is for sure, they
    are going to miss Yanda against that Jags DL, but it would be really hard for me to trust Bortles. The trends seem to
    favor the Ravens in this one and they are usually fast starters, but it remains to be seen how they handle the Yanda
    injury. I would like to say this is going to be a low scoring game but who knows how many times Bortles will turn the
    ball over. This will most likely be another pass for me, but something could change.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  33. #33
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Browns at Colts

    Browns 0-14 SU L14 on the Road, 4-10 ATS.
    Browns 3-7 ATS after playing 2 str8 Division games, 1-9 SU.
    Browns 7-2 SU & ATS since 2002 as a Road Favorite.

    Colts 1-4 ATS L5 vs the Browns, Under 5-1 L6. 7-1 SU L8.
    Colts 2-6 SU L8 at Home after a Home loss, 3-8 ATS L11.
    Colts 1-4 SU L5 as a Home Dog, 11-2 ATS since Week 15 2011.


    Key Injuries:


    Browns - WR Coleman

    It seems pretty telling to me that a team that lost 14 in a row on the Road is a Road Favorite, but the line seems
    about right to me. Some say the Colts are worse the the 0-16 Lions team and that's pretty bad. The Browns WR
    play last week was some of the worst I've seen in awhile though, there was a complete lack of effort and losing their
    only WR that was doing anything makes it worse, but I think they finally get their running game going in this one
    with Crowell and that good OL that should be able to have it's way with the Colts front 7. Crowell has been pretty
    quiet so far but he's faced to pretty good run defenses and I look for him to have a good game in this one with Duke
    Johnson making some plays out of the backfield to help his young QB. Brissett is a slight improvement, but they're
    still having trouble getting the ball down the field to Hilton and Moncrief and the Browns have a decent secondary
    that played the Steelers WR's well downfield. I'm interested in the Browns in this one, but haven't locked anything in
    yet.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  34. #34
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Steelers at Bears

    Steelers 3-10 ATS since 2009 as Road Favorites of 7 or more, Under 6-0 L6.
    Steelers 4-7-1 ATS L12 vs a team that lost their previous two games, 5-7 SU.
    Steelers 7-3 ATS L10 after winning their previous two games.

    Bears beat the Steelers the last two times they played in 2013 and 2009.
    Bears 3-16 SU and 6-12-1 ATS as a Home Dog since the 2012 season.
    Bears 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS L4 as a Home Dog of 7 or more points.
    Bears 3-0 ATS L3 vs a team that won their previous two games.

    Steelers have went Under 9 str8 times as Favorites of 7 or more points.
    Steelers have went Under 9 str8 times vs a team that lost their previous two games.
    Bears 8-2 L10 Under as Dogs of 7 or more.


    Key Injuries:

    Bears - ILB Nick Kwiatkoski
    Bears - G Kyle Long
    Bears - G Josh Sitton
    Bears - RB Jordan Howard

    Steelers - LB TJ Watt

    I would like to give the Bears a good look in this spot cuz as a Steelers fan I know all to well how Tomlin plays down
    to bad teams and the Steelers struggles when favored by a lot, but the Bears are reeling with injuries. Their WR
    corps is pathetic and even if Wheaton finally plays, he isn't going to make a difference, Jordan Howard was seen
    wearing a sling after the game on his shoulder and they have two good guards that are dinged up with Sitton
    hurting his ribs and that's just the offense, on defense they lost another ILB for the season, that's now 2 of their top
    3 LB'ers on IR. The only way I could play the Bears at this point is from a purely contrarian standpoint, but I would
    need some good news from about the injuries for their guards to even consider it.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


  35. #35
    FUqer
    FUqer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-22-15
    Posts: 2,512
    Betpoints: 1985

    Dolphins at Jets

    Dolphins swept the Jets last seasons and smashed them in NY 34-13 in Week 15.
    Dolphins 5-2 SU and ATS L7 on the Road.
    Dolphins 3-11 ATS L14 on the Road vs their Division.
    Dolphins 1-7 ATS L8 Week 3 games.
    Dolphins 5-1 SU & ATS L6 on the Road after a Road win.

    Jets 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS L9 at Home vs the Dolphins.
    Jets 2-6 SU L8 at Home.
    Jets 6-2 ATS L8 in Division Home games.
    Jets 0-3 SUATS L3 Week 3 games.
    Jets 4-1 ATS L5 after losing their previous two games.


    The Jets are prolly unbettable right now. I haven't gotten too deep into this game yet besides the trends, I don't
    have a lot of interest right now besides maybe taking the Dolphins in a teaser.

    BTP
    Week 4
    3-2-0 102 pts

    BTP
    Week 2
    4-1-0 210 pts


123 Last
Top