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02-05-17 01:21 AM #36
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02-05-17 01:23 AM #37
My friends used to call this CHICOLOGY. bad part is it rarely comes in.
Originally Posted by Da Manster!
I posted this in another thread but I'm thoroughly convinced Atlanta wins by at least a TD!...here's my mathematical reasoning and using the eyeball test after watching both of these teams several times this year...so without further ado....
I'm not a firm believer in using the transitive property as a "be all and end all" barometer, but just like the RPI in college basketball, it is a useful tool and metric stat to help make a pick...here are the common opponents of both teams:
New England 23 Arizona 21 (at Arizona)...2pt victory
New England 30 San Fran 17 (at San Fran)...13pt victory
New England 26 Rams 10 (at New England)...16pt victory
New England 16 Denver 3 (at Denver)...13pt victory
Atlanta 38 Arizona 19 (at Atlanta)...19pt victory
Atlanta 41 San Fran 13 (at Atlanta)...28pt victory
Atlanta 42 Rams 14 (at LA Rams)...28pt victory
Atlanta 23 Denver 16 (at Denver)...7pt victory
what exactly does this info mean?...well if you use the old rule of thumb that homefield is worth (+3) points, then we can make the following adjustments:
Pats over Cardinals = 5pts
Pats over San Fran = 16pts
Pats over Rams = 13pts
Pats over Broncos = 16pts
add the four totals up and then divide by 4 and you get 50/4 which means Pats adjusted average margin of victory is 12.5pts per game
Atlanta over Cardinals = 16pts
Atlanta over San Fran = 25pts
Atlanta over LA Rams = 31pts
Atlanta over Denver = 10pts
add the totals up and then divide by four and you get 82/4 which means Falcons adjusted average margin of victory is 20.5pts per game
so 20.5 - 12.5 = Atlanta by 8 over New England in the Superbowl!...Falcons win 31 - 23!....
Nomination(s):
This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: GunShard
1
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02-05-17 01:26 AM #38
Falcons
I just like teams with animal names.Last edited by Lex_icon; 02-05-17 at 01:30 AM.
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02-05-17 01:28 AM #39
Manster needs to run this formula by me again... I'm...
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02-05-17 02:10 AM #40
What does your model have? Originally Posted by LT Profits
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02-05-17 02:22 AM #41
Pats heavy in motivation and experience. Bill and Brady going to their 7th SB together. They know not many rounds left and the Goodell edge adds on to motivation. Bill loves the challenge of Preparing for the hottest offense and Brady will use challenge of beating mvp Matt Ryan. 2 qb led teams but one has a great defense and strong secondary. One coach in league for 2 seasons while other in 7th superbowl. One team excellent for years, the other had a great year. For these and many other reasons, i'm on the Pats and Brady aka the G.O.A.T. They'll just call him "Five" after he wins this one cause no other qb has ever done it. Come to think of it, his coach is the G.O.A.T too. So the reason to take the Falcons is a hot offense??? Nah....
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02-05-17 03:29 AM #42
Yes, because the Falcons aren't motivated by the fact if you find any article about the Super Bowl it has a Patriot plastered on there as the main picture. Originally Posted by kingdom
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02-05-17 03:31 AM #43
I really feel like the sharp side is the Falcons. Going with the dirty birds +3.
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02-05-17 03:39 AM #44
I think this is an easy one. NE 31-23
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02-05-17 05:13 AM #45
u go with the guy that has been a consistent big game failure and a 2nd year coach. i'm cool with B & B. Matt Ryan and Dan Quinn > Belichick and Brady lol... Originally Posted by astro61200
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02-05-17 05:19 AM #46
Big game is almost heee
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02-05-17 06:03 AM #47
Line seems dead on, Pats -3.34 Originally Posted by stackz125
Precisely why I scoff at those that insist on making this Super Bowl bet their biggest bet of the year, this line is a coin flip (unless we see a -2.5
)
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02-05-17 06:07 AM #48
List is updated. Will continue to update throughout the day.
If you are non-pro, and I never heard of you, I did not add you, sorry.
LT, I am not confident at all. Not at all. But I am probably going to put all my winnings for football season on Pats moneyline. Why? Because I gamble.
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02-05-17 06:31 AM #49
National Anthem under 130 seconds!!! hope this kicks off the day in style!!
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02-05-17 06:57 AM #50
Falcons
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02-05-17 06:58 AM #51
Fading the Pats is like fading Alabama
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02-05-17 07:04 AM #52
Clemson says hello. Originally Posted by Itsamazing777
Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: 19th Hole
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02-05-17 07:07 AM #53
As a general rule, lol Originally Posted by LT Profits
Clemson says hello.
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02-05-17 07:14 AM #54
You on Pats? Originally Posted by Itsamazing777
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02-05-17 07:21 AM #55
Moving list to pg 2 Originally Posted by grease lightnin
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02-05-17 07:21 AM #56
Hate the Pats. Would love for the birds to do a flyby shit on them. Betting heads on coin flip. Over at the start
and can watch the game w/o throwing shit at the TV.
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02-05-17 07:27 AM #57
This is dodgy logic. Might be elementary school level. Originally Posted by Da Manster!
I posted this in another thread but I'm thoroughly convinced Atlanta wins by at least a TD!...here's my mathematical reasoning and using the eyeball test after watching both of these teams several times this year...so without further ado....
I'm not a firm believer in using the transitive property as a "be all and end all" barometer, but just like the RPI in college basketball, it is a useful tool and metric stat to help make a pick...here are the common opponents of both teams:
New England 23 Arizona 21 (at Arizona)...2pt victory
New England 30 San Fran 17 (at San Fran)...13pt victory
New England 26 Rams 10 (at New England)...16pt victory
New England 16 Denver 3 (at Denver)...13pt victory
Atlanta 38 Arizona 19 (at Atlanta)...19pt victory
Atlanta 41 San Fran 13 (at Atlanta)...28pt victory
Atlanta 42 Rams 14 (at LA Rams)...28pt victory
Atlanta 23 Denver 16 (at Denver)...7pt victory
what exactly does this info mean?...well if you use the old rule of thumb that homefield is worth (+3) points, then we can make the following adjustments:
Pats over Cardinals = 5pts
Pats over San Fran = 16pts
Pats over Rams = 13pts
Pats over Broncos = 16pts
add the four totals up and then divide by 4 and you get 50/4 which means Pats adjusted average margin of victory is 12.5pts per game
Atlanta over Cardinals = 16pts
Atlanta over San Fran = 25pts
Atlanta over LA Rams = 31pts
Atlanta over Denver = 10pts
add the totals up and then divide by four and you get 82/4 which means Falcons adjusted average margin of victory is 20.5pts per game
so 20.5 - 12.5 = Atlanta by 8 over New England in the Superbowl!...Falcons win 31 - 23!....
Not only that but Brady didn't even play in 25% of the games.
Pats win easy.
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02-05-17 07:29 AM #58
Yeah. Originally Posted by grease lightnin
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02-05-17 07:47 AM #59
And with that "formula" atl had 2 home games, NE only one.. And the road games are all west coast.. this guy doesnt factor in anything that matters Originally Posted by new era
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02-05-17 07:51 AM #60
NE -3 -103 57%
Atl +3 -107 44%
Ov 58½ -105 51%
Un 58½ -105 49%
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02-05-17 08:18 AM #61
Not sure where youre even getting that number.. VegasInsider, Thespread, Scoresandodds, and pregame, all have public on Pats 64-65% Originally Posted by Sam Odom
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02-05-17 08:22 AM #62
Pinny via SBR Odds
Sports Option showing heavy NE
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02-05-17 08:25 AM #63
Falcs +3
Falcs money line
Under 59
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02-05-17 08:27 AM #64
Ive never been so lost on how i want to bet the super bowl... im looking for anything to make me go one way or the other Originally Posted by Sam Odom
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02-05-17 08:49 AM #65
except for the fact that I'm one of the best cappers on this forum and actually bet real money and post tickets!...and have had winning threads on here for years...all validated and verified on SBR.... Originally Posted by new era
...PS..and just so you know, the only game Brady didn't play in with common opponents was the Arizona game...he played in the other three that I mentioned...for you to bring that point up is borderline kindergarten level....
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02-05-17 08:55 AM #66
never heard of ya pal... Originally Posted by chosen4th
...and teams traveling east to west doesn't matter!..it's the other way around you dipshit!...and if your illiterate sorry ass could read and comprehend english, I did indeed factor in homefield advantage!....Christ, I've never seen so many dumb fuks in one place!...
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02-05-17 08:56 AM #67
I have a lot riding on ATL ML. That never works out. Originally Posted by chosen4th
There you go.
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02-05-17 08:59 AM #68
then don't bet the fukkin' game!...simple as that...who's twisting your arm to bet the Superbowl?! Originally Posted by chosen4th
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02-05-17 09:03 AM #69
Falcons +3 and ml.
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02-05-17 09:19 AM #70
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