[a4u2fear]

A few caught my eye. Notes - when reviewing NE's past practice and averages - playoff games are used. When reviewing Atlanta, this year only is considered.

First play of the game = pass +115
-In NE's last 8 playoff games they started the game with a pass (excludes one game where they started their first possession on IND's 2 after INT with a rush)
-Atlanta this year - 10 games started with a rush, 8 with a pass
Good odds here, half unit

Sacks under 5 -175
Ran some regressions and came up with an estimated total of 3.5 sacks for this game. Using SBR's poisson calculator, I came up with a line of u4.5 -264 and u5 -602. I'd normally play u4.5 at -145 due to the lower line, but at 5 my edge increases by 10+%
2 unit bet

First timeout by Atlanta -115
-In NE's last 9 playoff games, 5 times they did not take a timeout before the 2 min warning of 2nd half, twice they took a timeout around the 3 min mark of the 2nd quarter, and twice around 10-12 min mark of 2nd quarter
-Atlanta this year, seven times did not take a timeout before 2min warning of 2Q, six times took one in 1Q, and five times took their first TO sporadically through the 2Q
-Bottom line, Bill and Tom know how important TOs are, Atlanta has a fresh coach in the SB and a bunch of guys who haven't been there. I expect them to take the first TO. Atlanta didn't use a TO vs GB or Sea until after the 2 min warning of the 2Q, but those games were very easy for them. This NE game will be much different. I hope I don't lose this on a NE challenge, but we'll see.
I like this one for 4 units.

Last Kickoff NOT a touchback +120
No solidreasoning here, hoping for an onsides kick, a squib kick, or a return by a team who is down and needs a big play with a return even if the kick is deep.Quarter unit bet for fun

[a4u2fear]

Adding
1Q ends in a TIE +400 for small play.