1. #1
    bkwi
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    Who to bet tonight?

    I am eying betting the over the packers have no defense at all and Rodgers should still be able to throw the ball on the eagles!! Any advice?

  2. #2
    jjgold
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  3. #3
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    Over seems like the play.

  4. #4
    danndmann
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    Eagles ml & under total 47 but would be a small play though

  5. #5
    phil_abuster
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    well, definitely NOT an under, (46.5 /47 ? )
    as recent 4 packer games, 3 on the road, have yielded a net of 66, 72, 57, and 65 pts!!
    i expect similar tonite
    2 other road games totaled 31 and 50 pts.

    most relevant stats would b packers RECENT road game results
    after the injuries to defense began piling on:

    32-33 @ falcons
    25-47 @ titans (mediocre team, not as good as eagles)
    24-42 @ redskins

    compared to the relevant HOME games by eagles:

    34-3 vs steelers
    21-10 vs outstanding defense of vikings (waaay better than packers D!)
    24-15 vs falcons

    because packers D is reeling, the offense have been passing and scoring more too in order to try and outscore an opponent in a shootout.
    of course, oddsmakers know this and have set the line accordingly

    still, i make this match between 45 and 57 pts
    for it to trigger an OVER bet in this case i need a line very close to the lower edge of my estimate, so 45, 46, 47
    i can get it now, as one of my books has moved to 46.5
    but actually i like the team total on eagles better (ovr 26) as i have a slightly stronger estimated edge here of 26-34 pts scored against the packer defense.

    yes, eagles havent eclipsed this number often except 3 consecutive times at the start of the yr (2 were home)
    but in recent games they have been close to scoring this number (26 pts) despite playing 5 of 7 on the road and against teams w/ winning records - all of which r better teams than packers!
    tonites game is at home - where they perform and score better - against their weakest foe since week 2

    good luck
    Last edited by phil_abuster; 11-28-16 at 07:01 PM. Reason: added relevant info

  6. #6
    stackz125
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    If you like the packers
    Take the ML
    Points won't be needed
    They either blow out the eagles or get blown out.

  7. #7
    WWCD
    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
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    What exactly does GB have going for them?

    They are missing key players and have no running game. Third straight road game, which is generally an auto-fade for me anyway but the Eagles are playing lights out at home, surrendering on average 10 ppg.

    I just don't think will power alone is a good enough reason to bet on them.

  8. #8
    ans61201
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    Doesn't look like too many people watch eagles game. This team is the most frustratingly slow dink and dunk team I've ever watched. They lack talent and overcompensate by shortening the game. They routinely have 10 +play 5 minute drives. Don't trust any overs with them Involved even against packers D

  9. #9
    badgerguy
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    Utah Jazz -2.5

  10. #10
    sweethook
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    I think the sharps are split on this game

  11. #11
    bkwi
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    Badgerguy I followed jazz!!

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