[phil_abuster]

on the eve of the largest appearing full moon in our lifetime tonight,
here's my fade bets for the day:

1-3-1 last week

eagles -1 _ after 2 straight losses eagles due for a win (home), and after 2 straight wins falcons due for a road loss. line is good value on a homie in an EVEN matchup!

jets +1 _rookie qb from baylor likely start for nyj; ordinarily i would fade or pass here but the jets r facing an equally bad team - losers of 4 straight. i like the homies getting pts in an EVEN matchup. that scenario wins more often than loses. although today could b one of the losses

bucs +3 _ i ask myself which is more likely: a 0-4 road team to finally get a road win or a 0-4 home team to finally get a home win? i dont like any loser 2-6 squad (bears) laying pts on the road, so i look at the homies more closely and my stats say this is an EVEN matchup w/ the homies getting +3 pts.


if U r on these same bets then i wish U great success!

[phil_abuster]

on the eve of the largest appearing full moon in our lifetime tonight,
here's my fade bets for the day:

1-3-1 last week

eagles -1 _ after 2 straight losses eagles due for a win (home), and after 2 straight wins falcons due for a road loss. line is good value on a homie in an EVEN matchup!

jets +1 _rookie qb from baylor likely start for nyj; ordinarily i would fade or pass here but the jets r facing an equally bad team - losers of 4 straight. i like the homies getting pts in an EVEN matchup. that scenario wins more often than loses. although today could b one of the losses

bucs +3 _ i ask myself which is more likely: a 0-4 road team to finally get a road win or a 0-4 home team to finally get a home win? i dont like any loser 2-6 squad (bears) laying pts on the road, so i look at the homies more closely and my stats say this is an EVEN matchup w/ the homies getting +3 pts.

panthers -3 _ injury concerns for kc; after winning 2 panthers on a revival and now probably gain 2 or 3 extra flags for roughing on newton

saints -3 _ homies r on a rise going 4-1 after 0-3 start, while broncs/siemien r definitely struggling, w/simien still hurting and corners still an issue, derek wolfe OUT and 2 others on D very questionable. could b a shootout w/ saints linebackers out

if U r on these same bets then i wish U great success!

[phil_abuster]

added loser:
seahawks +7.5 _ of course pats win, but by how much. a good D should keep it close

[phil_abuster]

so i went 3-3 sunday.
should've been 4-2 but panthers decided to blow a 17-3 ht lead.

mnf bet is on the giants PK, as i also have this matchup rated EVEN, although with a miniscule edge actually to the giants here. in such cases the homies r normally favored by 3 or more so i like the line value im getting here. note some books r offering the giants for +1