1. 10-03-16 01:37 PM #1
    PorkChop
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    Week 5 Surprise Line :

    Think we should do this every week men. Opening Monday, which line this weekend jumps out at you?


    Detroit +3 & ML+145.

    Looks to me Vegas has this set nicely for everyone to sit on the '3-0' Eagles off a bye week, public will load up, Lions back at home after two straight bad road losses, get a nice win outright. Eagles secondary yet to impressive me, the Pittsburgh gave was over after 15 minutes, other opponents weak. I'm keeping an eye to see where this number goes, Lions plus money bounce back win looks nice
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  2. 10-03-16 01:39 PM #2
    lakerboy
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    Agreed. Also hammering the bengals and skins.
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  3. 10-03-16 01:42 PM #3
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    Agreed. Also hammering the bengals and skins.

    Already locked in Bengals +110 this morning. No chance that line stays plus money
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  4. 10-03-16 01:42 PM #4
    Underdog5229
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    I don't know Porky's. the Lions offense is so inconsistent, I have a hard time only getting 3 vs the eagles even at home.
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  5. 10-03-16 01:43 PM #5
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by Underdog5229 View Post
    I don't know Porky's. the Lions offense is so inconsistent, I have a hard time only getting 3 vs the eagles even at home.

    At home this is their spot.

    Over may be a nice play as well.
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  6. 10-03-16 01:47 PM #6
    lakerboy
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    Eagles will get smashed here.
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  7. 10-03-16 01:50 PM #7
    Underdog5229
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    I'm wanting to be on it as well, but living in Michigan the lions have let me down more times than I care to admit. its definitely a good spot for the lions to get back on track, but trust me the lions find new and inventive ways to lose games they shouldn't.
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  8. 10-03-16 01:55 PM #8
    Time is Money
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    Not the least bit surprised, book has foaming at the mouth to post this pick. That said, LOVE the Lions in this spot. Philly has no business laying close to double digits at home.

    https://usatftw.files.wordpress.com/...g?w=1000&h=288

    70% of Wentz completions have come on first read. More than a quarter of them on screens. I think the media is overhyping how good Wentz is. Stafford can still sling the ball, especially at home in the dome.
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  9. 10-03-16 02:05 PM #9
    BigdaddyQH
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    Porky, do you ever win? We know that you are way behind this season. Do you even wager? You talk about the Lions getting beat in two straight away games, but what is your excuse for the loss at home to Tennessee? What is your excuse for a 1-3 ATS record? You do realize that the Lions are 1-10 ATS when they are a dog of less than 10 points facing a team looking for revenge.

    Philly is 3-0 both S/U and ATS. The Eagles are 22-6 S/U after their bye week. They are 5-0 ATS against teams under .600 after a week of rest. The line is down to 2 1/2 now. That is a solid line for the Eagles.
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  10. 10-03-16 02:09 PM #10
    sportsfan9698
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Think we should do this every week men. Opening Monday, which line this weekend jumps out at you?


    Detroit +3 & ML+145.

    Looks to me Vegas has this set nicely for everyone to sit on the '3-0' Eagles off a bye week, public will load up, Lions back at home after two straight bad road losses, get a nice win outright. Eagles secondary yet to impressive me, the Pittsburgh gave was over after 15 minutes, other opponents weak. I'm keeping an eye to see where this number goes, Lions plus money bounce back win looks nice
    Good post topic!! I disagree with your pick though... PHI is a top-5 team playing a pretty bad team. I will likely be the chalk eating noob taking PHI here

    The line that jumped out to me was MIN -5 at home over HOU. AFter tonight I think this will be more apparent... and you will not get -5
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  11. 10-03-16 02:20 PM #11
    Time is Money
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    Quote Originally Posted by sportsfan9698 View Post
    Good post topic!! I disagree with your pick though... PHI is a top-5 team playing a pretty bad team. I will likely be the chalk eating noob taking PHI here

    The line that jumped out to me was MIN -5 at home over HOU. AFter tonight I think this will be more apparent... and you will not get -5
    Minnesota could get destroyed tonight and I would still take that -5. Brock O isn't the kind of QB who is built for success against Vikes on the road. Kid will be a turnover machine.
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  12. 10-03-16 02:23 PM #12
    BayArea888
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    Texans @ Vikings should be a textbook under.
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  13. 10-03-16 02:55 PM #13
    jjgold
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    Phila will win easy
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  14. 10-03-16 03:17 PM #14
    PorkChop
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    Here's another one guys - Jets +7.5. Perfect spot, everybody will say how the hell can you back Fitzpatrick right now, Steelers should cleaned up for public Sunday night in primetime, If this money is identical, (70+ percent on Steelers & Over), I can't envision Vegas paying this out again back to back Sunday's. Pittsburgh is everyone's darling, over-inflated line from the KC blowout, Jets in complete desperation mode, 7.5 is more than generous.

    (Kind of like Buffalo @ New England). New England on primetime stage, (Thursday night vs Houston), blew doors open, over inflated line following week at home to a desperate but quality Buffalo team, opened at 7.5, (Immediately down to 3.5). Overinflated line from primetime win result. This is very similar too me.

    Jets keep this within 4 and under.
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  15. 10-03-16 03:18 PM #15
    PorkChop
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Phila will win easy

    You said that last week in my Saints thread. " Chargers will win easy"

    Use your brain, pick your spots and make some money
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  16. 10-03-16 03:21 PM #16
    PorkChop
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    Indianapolis money-line is free value to add too plays also men. It'll be juiced, (at a -5.5 spread), but money line is auto.
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  17. 10-03-16 03:28 PM #17
    lakerboy
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    Agree with jets as well.
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  18. 10-03-16 03:33 PM #18
    sportsfan9698
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    Hey Pork Chop I am new here but I think I see a trend... it appears to me you simply like to fade the consensus on your picks. Maybe I am wrong?

    I would take the opposite side of those you posted. We will see
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  19. 10-03-16 04:20 PM #19
    MadeInDetroit
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    Lifelong Lions fan here... I see this game like the Arizona game last year. Lions lose a terrible game in London vs KC, and Arizona comes to Ford field at -3 and blew the Lions out. This was my play of the year last year (almost as easy as Kobe Bryant over 24 points in final game)... Sports radio is going nuts, calling for caldwell's head, critisizing Ebron and Tate... Levy and Ziggy injured... The lions are what they appear to be, a bad team. Is philly overrated? Probably, but they still roll here.
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  20. 10-03-16 04:55 PM #20
    DOM_Toretto
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    ^ agree. If levy and ziggy are out then idk how we could beat the Eagles.

    Everyone playing fantasy enamored with lions offense but they're scoring most points against prevent defense or shit Bears defense.
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  21. 10-03-16 05:25 PM #21
    dlunc3
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    Quote Originally Posted by PorkChop View Post
    Think we should do this every week men. Opening Monday, which line this weekend jumps out at you?


    Detroit +3 & ML+145.

    Looks to me Vegas has this set nicely for everyone to sit on the '3-0' Eagles off a bye week, public will load up, Lions back at home after two straight bad road losses, get a nice win outright. Eagles secondary yet to impressive me, the Pittsburgh gave was over after 15 minutes, other opponents weak. I'm keeping an eye to see where this number goes, Lions plus money bounce back win looks nice
    Line is def a det line.. but your reasoning is flawed. Eagles have arguably a top 3 safety tandem in football and are getting their best corner back from injury this week. If you like det (which I agree, that's what the line says), I would wait on it
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  22. 10-03-16 05:45 PM #22
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by DOM_Toretto View Post
    ^ agree. If levy and ziggy are out then idk how we could beat the Eagles.

    Everyone playing fantasy enamored with lions offense but they're scoring most points against prevent defense or shit Bears defense.
    How many they score on bears? I thought they whacked packers and colts defenses?
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  23. 10-03-16 06:00 PM #23
    DOM_Toretto
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    How many they score on bears? I thought they whacked packers and colts defenses?
    Lions offense didn't score any TDs on Bears. Scored 1 on Titans. Scored 3 on packers' prevent D when pack were up 28.
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  24. 10-03-16 06:10 PM #24
    Ratpack
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    Bills rams under easiest bet next week I don't care if it's 30
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  25. 10-03-16 06:11 PM #25
    CanuckG
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    Agreed with the Lions - zigzag theory. I think the Browns also will be a play at 10.5 with Brady coming back.
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  26. 10-03-16 07:49 PM #26
    Eric22174
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    Books had Lions -1 at the start of the season. Wentz makes them 3.5 pts better?

    https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/2016-nfl-point-spreads-for-weeks-1-16/
    Last edited by Eric22174; 10-03-16 at 07:52 PM.
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  27. 10-03-16 08:20 PM #27
    KVB
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    Books had Lions -1 at the start of the season. Wentz makes them 3.5 pts better?

    https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...or-weeks-1-16/
    https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...or-weeks-1-16/

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  28. 10-03-16 09:31 PM #28
    chaka
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    Quote Originally Posted by Time is Money View Post
    Not the least bit surprised, book has foaming at the mouth to post this pick. That said, LOVE the Lions in this spot. Philly has no business laying close to double digits at home.

    https://usatftw.files.wordpress.com/...g?w=1000&h=288

    70% of Wentz completions have come on first read. More than a quarter of them on screens. I think the media is overhyping how good Wentz is. Stafford can still sling the ball, especially at home in the dome.
    why go to second read if first read is open? ask pittsburgh if they think he was over rated
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  29. 10-03-16 09:34 PM #29
    sportsfan9698
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    Books had Lions -1 at the start of the season. Wentz makes them 3.5 pts better?

    https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...or-weeks-1-16/

    I'm surprised it is only 3.5

    Wentz has exceeded all expectations and Lions are dissapointing
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  30. 10-03-16 09:53 PM #30
    mcdonae101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric22174 View Post
    Books had Lions -1 at the start of the season. Wentz makes them 3.5 pts better?

    https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...or-weeks-1-16/

    Lions look ol a lot worse than people thought they would be. And philly obviously looks amazing compared to what people thought they would look like
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  31. 10-03-16 10:33 PM #31
    pilebuck13
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    Browns are not a play patriots fukin steam roll them....ravens cover easy
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  32. 10-03-16 10:46 PM #32
    Bostongambler
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    Pats role I concur . Even if they don't how anyone would risk their money on Cleve covering in Brady's first game back is crazy.
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