1. #1
    a4u2fear
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    NFL Spreads/Totals and Props

    Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

    all 1u
    Rex Ryan coach of year +5000
    Arz u9.5 +155
    Cle u4.5 +110
    Car u10.5 -115
    Cin u9.5 +100
    Dal u9 -135
    Det o7 -125
    GB u10.5 +130
    Hou u8.5 +105
    KC u9.5 +100
    Min u9.5 +120
    NYG o8 -115
    Oak u8.5 +100
    Phi o7 +135
    Sea u10.5 +110
    TB o7 -110
    Ten o5.5 -160

  2. #2
    a4u2fear
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    I am excited because I have recently been killing it in all sports:

    http://contests.sportsbookreview.com...-contest-5595/

    I have over 35 units in a contest where you cannot bet more than one unit a game. The max you can win on a favorite is less than 1 unit, and a dog will win more than a unit.

    I analyzed my bets and over 150 bets, I am 3.2 standard deviations above the mean, which is extremely profitable of course. My average bet price was +120
    Nomination(s):
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: thomasjward

  3. #3
    a4u2fear
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    I am interested in betting player props this year. It's tough because these are usually posted an hour or less to game time and there is little time to prepare for hundreds of players. So I created an automated excel sheet to import all of the stats and props for each game. I won't focus on every player, but the main players at each position on each team

  4. #4
    BigdaddyQH
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

    all 1u
    Rex Ryan coach of year +5000...Lose
    Arz u9.5 +155...Lose
    Cle u4.5 +110...Win
    Car u10.5 -115...Lose
    Cin u9.5 +100...Win
    Dal u9 -135...Win
    Det o7 -125...Lose
    GB u10.5 +130...Lose
    Hou u8.5 +105...Win
    KC u9.5 +100...Win
    Min u9.5 +120...Win
    NYG o8 -115...Win
    Oak u8.5 +100...Lose
    Phi o7 +135...Lose
    Sea u10.5 +110...Lose
    TB o7 -110...Lose
    Ten o5.5 -160...Lose
    I agree with 7 of your picks and disagree with 10. This should be interesting. By the way, if you have to tell us how great you are doing, then you are not doing great at all.

  5. #5
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    I agree with 7 of your picks and disagree with 10. This should be interesting. By the way, if you have to tell us how great you are doing, then you are not doing great at all.
    I did not make the picks trying to win them all, they were all made with each having a greater edge than normal given out by the books.

    and I provided the results and picks for this year because without it no one would have a clue about my performance and would either dismiss and or may follow with improper consequences

  6. #6
    arrgy
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    Quote Originally Posted by a4u2fear View Post
    Will be posting all plays here. To start, here are some futures I bet on already in a prior post, obviously I've already beaten the odds on Dal and Min with their recent injuries:

    all 1u
    Rex Ryan coach of year +5000
    Arz u9.5 +155
    Cle u4.5 +110
    Car u10.5 -115
    Cin u9.5 +100
    Dal u9 -135
    Det o7 -125
    GB u10.5 +130
    Hou u8.5 +105
    KC u9.5 +100
    Min u9.5 +120
    NYG o8 -115
    Oak u8.5 +100
    Phi o7 +135
    Sea u10.5 +110
    TB o7 -110
    Ten o5.5 -160
    So is Rex Ryan getting fired before the beginning of the 2017 season at -5000?

  7. #7
    scottgodson1985
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    Dont forget player props are juiced with 30c lines, but im looking to do the same thing this year time permitting.

  8. #8
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottgodson1985 View Post
    Dont forget player props are juiced with 30c lines, but im looking to do the same thing this year time permitting.
    Thanks for reminder

  9. #9
    a4u2fear
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    I don't use Bet Online, but wow, they have a lot of NFL props I don't see elsewhere.

    Smacking myself, my book had Den u20 or u20.5 the other day and I was going to play it. Now its 19.5 and I'm definitely passing on that. Hoping can make some prop bets

    Sunday play as I expect this line to close in Buffalo's favor:
    BUF ML +150

  10. #10
    a4u2fear
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    Buf over 20, -125, both 1u

  11. #11
    a4u2fear
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    Not liking really any player props. I just don't know what to expect from DEN QB, other than hoping the CAR defense can force him into a timeout because of his inexperience early on. Most of the CAR props are close to my numbers.

    DEN 1st TO -115 1u
    Siemian u215 -115 1u

    Carolina has a good defense and 215 for a rookie is no easy task. Prove me wrong. Lots of dump offs and a low scoring game.

    Missed my opportunity to hit the under game total and under DEN total, so passing on each.

  12. #12
    a4u2fear
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    Sunday, all 1u
    BUF +150
    BUF o20 -125
    NYJ +3
    NO -1.5
    SD +7 -120
    CHI +6
    JAX +4.5

    Should be some props too

    Game Props 0-1 -1.15 (did Cam really take 2 TO in the first drive!?!?)
    Player Props 1-0 +1.00

  13. #13
    a4u2fear
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    I made a couple of other strange prop plays before the season:
    Sack leader is from the field +850, I am not going to list the 15-20 or so players the book listed to win it, but they are the obvious guys.

    Buffalo regular season points scored total is inclusive 329 to 382 (20.6 to 23.9), +155 1u
    Denver regular season points scored total is under 353 (22.1), +165 1u

  14. #14
    a4u2fear
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    TB +115 1u

  15. #15
    a4u2fear
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    Phi/Cle, YES defensive or ST TD +215 1u
    Buf/Bal, Longest TD o41.5 -115 1u
    Hou/Chi, First Score FG or Safety +140 1u

    Still waiting for player props to be posted

  16. #16
    2daBank
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    That a really good eye with that Balty/buf ov 41 longest td. I love this game to be sneaky explosive with big plays abound..

    Gl bud

  17. #17
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2daBank View Post
    That a really good eye with that Balty/buf ov 41 longest td. I love this game to be sneaky explosive with big plays abound..

    Gl bud
    Thanks. Wow it's tough going through all those players props

    Let's see how this goes, all 1u:
    Derek Carr u275 -115
    Brees o295.5 -125
    Winston u21.5 completions -125
    Evans u80.5 -115
    Julio o100.5 -120
    Murray u71.5 Rec/Ru -115
    Wentz u230.5 -115
    AJ Green u83.5 -115
    Rivers o250.5 -115
    Rivers o23.5 comp -105

  18. #18
    a4u2fear
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    I was really looking forward to doing player props this year but they don't get posted until 1.5 hr before game time and there is not enough time to accurately go over them, or I need to add a lot more automation to my analysis, too much for now

    SF +130

  19. #19
    saints1856
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    I took Carlos Hyde Over 62.5 Rushing yards tonight. I think he gets a ton of carries, and if he breaks one run for 15-20 yards, he's a third of the way there. Plus Chip Kelly runs a snap-happy offense where he gets a good % of the touches.

  20. #20
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by saints1856 View Post
    I took Carlos Hyde Over 62.5 Rushing yards tonight. I think he gets a ton of carries, and if he breaks one run for 15-20 yards, he's a third of the way there. Plus Chip Kelly runs a snap-happy offense where he gets a good % of the touches.
    I like it good luck. Think 49ers surprise and Hyde would be the one to do it

  21. #21
    a4u2fear
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    ML 2-1 +1.45
    Spread 3-2 +0.80

    disappointed in the player props, too little time to evaluate and the performance was terrible, also dhould have waited a few weeks, will see if I have more time upcoming

  22. #22
    a4u2fear
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    Bills +100

    they were absolutely pathetic last week and the jets should've beaten Cincinnati, but the bills own the jets, and Fitzpatrick isn't good enough to beat Rex Ryan defenses. Gotta play this at plus money

  23. #23
    a4u2fear
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    I like doing 8 team teasers, hit 7/8 last week, lost Arizona pk sob!

    this week:
    Buf +8.5
    Det +1.5
    KC +10
    Mia +13.5
    Pit +3.5
    NO NYG o47
    Arz pk
    SD +4
    1 to win 10.5

  24. #24
    a4u2fear
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    Don't like a lot of sides this week, but totals all 1u:
    DET TEN o47.5
    IND DEN o46.5
    ATL OAK o48
    SD JAX o47

  25. #25
    a4u2fear
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    all 1u
    Mia +240
    Was -160
    Arz -7
    STL +245

  26. #26
    a4u2fear
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    ML 3-5 +0.30
    Spread 4-2 +1.80
    Totals 3-1 +1.80
    Teaser 0-1 -1.00

    B2B weeks at hitting 7/8 on the teasers, ugh.

  27. #27
    a4u2fear
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    Chi -3 1u

  28. #28
    GoSTEELERS77
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    Damn that is close. Can you do those teasers where you can still win with 1 loss?

  29. #29
    a4u2fear
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    Quote Originally Posted by GoSTEELERS77 View Post
    Damn that is close. Can you do those teasers where you can still win with 1 loss?
    These are SBR teasers so no, my book doesn't have 8 teamers

    NE -105 1u

  30. #30
    a4u2fear
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    Jax +100
    Car -7
    SF +10
    SD +100
    Cin -3
    buf Arz u47
    Pit Phi o47
    all 1u

  31. #31
    a4u2fear
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    Teaser 1 to win 12.5
    Buf +10, Jax +7, Was +9, Gb o41.5, Car -1, Pit o40.5, SD +8, SD o45,

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