1. 06-23-16 12:06 AM #1
    Hngkng
    Hngkng's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-03-15
    Posts: 729
    Betpoints: 2970

    Cfl 2016

    We had a CFL thread going last year, lets see if anyone is interested in it this year.

    Season starts today.

    http://www.sportsbookreview.com/nfl-...lysis-a-73211/
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 07-07-16 08:52 AM #2
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Checking in. It'll be another 2-3 weeks before I start posting my lines, but thought I'd give you a bump to see if anyone is out there.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 07-19-16 12:04 AM #3
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    I'll go ahead and start posting my lines here. This is how things went last season in the other thread:

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 3 1 1 3
    Week 6 4 0 1 3
    Week 7 2 2 2 2
    Week 8 1 3 3 1
    Week 9 1 3 2 2
    Week 10 1 3 3 1
    Week 11 2 2 3 1
    Week 12 3 1 2 2
    Week 13 3 1 2 2
    Week 14 2 2 2 1
    Week 15 2 2 2 2
    Week 16 2 3 3 2
    Week 17 2 2 1 3
    Week 18 3 1 3 1
    Week 19 2 2 1 3
    Week 20 0 4 1 2
    Totals 33 32 32 31

    Obviously, Week 20 was a disaster, but that's not surprising since all of the playoff spots were decided the week before. From Week 5 through Week 20 my model went 33-28 (54.1%) on sides and 31-29 (51.7%) on totals. So things were slightly profitable. Hoping to do a little better this season. Best of luck to all!
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 07-19-16 12:10 AM #4
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Here are my Week 5 lines:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Winnipeg 5 -1.5 -6.5 50 41.5 -8.5
    Saskatchewan 7 26.2 19.2 55 72.1 17.1
    Edmonton -4.5 -4.9 -0.4 55.5 58.0 2.5
    Toronto -7 -19.9 -12.9 44.5 34.8 -9.7

    I always base my lines off of the home team, so a negative number on a side means the home team is favored. For example, Winnipeg is currently a 5-point underdog at home against Calgary. My model has Winnipeg favored by 1.5 for a difference of 6.5 points from the current line. Feel free to ask questions if something doesn't make sense.

    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 07-21-16 03:14 PM #5
    Mike Huntertz
    Mike Huntertz's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 08-19-09
    Posts: 11,166
    Betpoints: 22592

    Didn't Cal beat Wpg by 14 earlier?
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 07-21-16 03:48 PM #6
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Didn't Cal beat Wpg by 14 earlier?
    Yup. And it went over pretty easily. There are also several trends that favor Calgary. I'm just providing my numbers as a tool for anyone interested. I certainly am not a CFL expert.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 07-26-16 12:32 AM #7
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Not terrible so far, but not what we're looking for.

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6
    Week 7
    Week 8
    Week 9
    Week 10
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 1 3 2 2
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 07-26-16 11:11 PM #8
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Model has some weird lines this week:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Edmonton -10 22.5 32.5 55 60.7 5.7
    Montreal 0 20.3 20.3 50 52.5 2.5
    Calgary -5.5 6.7 12.2 49 44.7 -4.3
    Ottawa -8 -13.6 -5.6 49 48.3 -0.7
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 08-02-16 10:36 PM #9
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Not good so far. Looking to improve this week.
    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7
    Week 8
    Week 9
    Week 10
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 3 5 3 5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 08-02-16 10:37 PM #10
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Lines for Week 7:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Winnipeg 4.5 -0.7 -5.2 49.5 43.6 -5.9
    Montreal 2.5 8.3 5.8 50 45.3 -4.7
    Calgary -11 -27.6 -16.6 58 71.9 13.9
    Ottawa -4 -18.0 -14.0 58.5 55.0 -3.5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 08-06-16 10:25 PM #11
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Nice winning week this time around.

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8
    Week 9
    Week 10
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 6 6 5 7
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 08-08-16 05:45 PM #12
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Here's what I have for Week 8:
    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Edmonton -7.5 -3.9 3.6 51.5 52.8 1.3
    Toronto -4 4.4 8.4 49.5 48.6 -0.9
    Saskatchewan 6 9.4 3.4 55 56.1 1.1
    BC -2.5 -10.6 -8.1 54.5 53.7 -0.8
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 08-14-16 08:05 AM #13
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Another strong week for the sides, but the totals are way off this season.

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9
    Week 10
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 9 7 5 11
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 08-18-16 08:38 AM #14
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    My lines for this week:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Ottawa -10 -9.3 0.7 49 41.8 -7.2
    BC -3 -11.5 -8.5 56 58.2 2.2
    Toronto 3 -2.5 -5.5 53 45.3 -7.7
    Hamilton -10.5 -6.4 4.1 53 47.7 -5.3
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 08-18-16 08:42 AM #15
    DansPicks
    DansPicks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-18-16
    Posts: 2
    Betpoints: 6

    Love the CFL talks. Hamilton should be a good pick down the road with their QB back
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 08-23-16 08:16 AM #16
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Week 9 was a disaster. Need to find some time to see what's going on with the totals.

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 10 10 5 15
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 08-23-16 08:17 AM #17
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Here are my lines for Week 10:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Ottawa -2.5 9.0 11.5 56.5 57.7 1.2
    Montreal -1.5 9.3 10.8 48 45.2 -2.8
    Edmonton -13.5 -22.2 -8.7 56 55.1 -0.9
    Calgary -5 -10.6 -5.6 53.5 56.8 3.3
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 08-29-16 02:36 PM #18
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Updated season results. The totals are a terrific fade right now.

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10 3 1 1 3
    Week 11
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 13 11 6 18
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 08-30-16 11:09 PM #19
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Just realized we have a game tomorrow. Here are my lines for Week 11. I may adjust the second Toronto game after tomorrow's game.

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Toronto 3 11.8 8.8 54.5 59.2 4.7
    Montreal 2.5 -1.7 -4.2 49 48.7 -0.3
    Saskatchewan 4.5 18.1 13.6 51.5 50.8 -0.7
    Calgary -7 -10.5 -3.5 54.5 51.9 -2.6
    Hamilton -8 -8.8 -0.8 54.5 54.3 -0.2
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 09-07-16 09:34 PM #20
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    I wish I could bottle and sell the fade material in these totals...

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10 3 1 1 3
    Week 11 2 2 1 4
    Week 12
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 15 13 7 22
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 09-07-16 09:35 PM #21
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Lines for Week 12:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    BC -9.5 -2.1 7.4 48.5 42.6 -5.9
    Winnipeg -7 -19.4 -12.4 52.5 50.1 -2.4
    Edmonton 2.5 17.9 15.4 53.5 61.1 7.6
    Toronto 4 11.2 7.2 56 63.1 7.1
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 09-15-16 10:28 PM #22
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    It's been a crappy week so I'm just getting to this. Here's where we are after last week's games:

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10 3 1 1 3
    Week 11 2 2 1 4
    Week 12 1 2 2 2
    Week 13
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 16 15 9 24
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 09-15-16 10:29 PM #23
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    This is what I have for Week 13:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Hamilton -11.5 -1.5 10.0 53 51.3 -1.7
    Winnipeg -6 1.0 7.0 50.5 42.9 -7.6
    Calgary -9.5 -11.6 -2.1 54 57.3 3.3
    Saskatchewan 5 6.5 1.5 55 54.6 -0.4
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  24. 09-21-16 09:12 AM #24
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Results through Week 13:

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10 3 1 1 3
    Week 11 2 2 1 4
    Week 12 1 2 2 2
    Week 13 2 2 3 1
    Week 14
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 18 17 12 25
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  25. 09-21-16 09:13 AM #25
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Here's what I have for Week 14:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Ottawa -6 0.4 6.4 53 59.4 6.4
    Edmonton -1 8.3 9.3 55 58.5 3.5
    Calgary -9.5 -27.4 -17.9 53 60.2 7.2
    Saskatchewan 5 -4.7 -9.7 53.5 51.1 -2.4
    Last edited by HeeluvaGuy; 09-21-16 at 09:16 AM.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  26. 09-29-16 11:34 PM #26
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Almost forgot these. Updated results:

    Sides Totals
    W L W L
    Week 5 1 3 2 2
    Week 6 2 2 1 3
    Week 7 3 1 2 2
    Week 8 3 1 0 4
    Week 9 1 3 0 4
    Week 10 3 1 1 3
    Week 11 2 2 1 4
    Week 12 1 2 2 2
    Week 13 2 2 3 1
    Week 14 1 3 2 2
    Week 15
    Week 16
    Week 17
    Week 18
    Week 19
    Week 20
    Totals 19 20 14 27
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  27. 09-29-16 11:37 PM #27
    HeeluvaGuy
    HeeluvaGuy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-15-14
    Posts: 3,449
    Betpoints: 3926

    Week 15:

    Home Team Current Line Projected Line Delta (from Current) Current Total Projected Total Delta (from Current)
    Winnipeg -3.5 -7.9 -4.4 53.5 53.3 -0.2
    Hamilton 2.5 29.4 26.9 55 57.9 2.9
    BC -5.5 0.5 6.0 53 51.6 -1.4
    Montreal -3 0.3 3.3 49 46.1 -2.9
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NFL Betting | Next Thread »