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Kroy's Round 3 Playoff Thread (53-29-1 ATS)
It's been a very shaky playoffs for me so far, as I've badly missed on a couple of plays and find myself with a losing record on the week for just the second time this year after round 2. I'm very disappointed with how things have gone these past couple of weeks, but I'm hopeful that I can still right the ship and hit the rest of my plays this season to salvage a winning playoffs. Here's what I like today:
- Colts -7.5
In their first meeting, the Colts' starters put up 15 easy points (missed PAT and failed 2 point conversion kept it from being 17) on the Jets' defense before starters were yanked from the game early in the third quarter. In that game, the Jets were playing for their playoff lives and still unable to get much pressure on Manning or slow Indy's attack through the air. Manning threw for about 9 yards per pass attempt in that game, and had no trouble constantly finding an open man. Even last week the Jets showed a bit of a weakness in their secondary, as they allowed over 6 yards/pass attempt to Rivers and the Chargers. The Chargers simply beat themselves by trying to win the game through Tomlinson, who clearly is not the same back he once was. I think that the Colts are going to load up the box to stop the run, forcing Sanchez to beat them through the air. Given the fact that Indy allowed the 4th least yards/pass attempt in the NFL, I think that Sanchez won't be up to the task. The Colts should be able to get pressure on Sanchez, and I think we're going to see a few turnovers out of him that allow the Colts to put this game out of reach. Colts should cruise to the Superbowl with a double digit win.
- Saints -3.5
As everyone knows, the Saints have been an elite passing unit all season, as New Orleans has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Although Minnesota's defense has been a bit streaky this year, one constant that can be taken away is that their main weakness is against the pass. Although Dallas only put up 3 points on them last week, they were moving the ball with ease before losing one of their key offensive linemen, they just were shooting themselves in the foot in true Cowboys' fashion in ways that would keep points off the board. I'm certain that those are drives we'll see the Saints be able to finish today.
When you look at the Vikings offense, they've been much better throwing the ball than running it this year. Minnesota is 9th in yards/pass attempt, and just 23rd in yards/rush attempt this season. If you look at just games where the majority of the Saints defense has been healthy, they are 5th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt allowed. The Saints have also excelled at covering opponents' #1 WRs, and if they can keep Sidney Rice limited, the Vikings are going to lose a lot of their offensive firepower. We know that Favre can be pressured into mistakes, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints force a couple of turnovers in this one as well that will help them put the game out of reach.
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Originally Posted by jnickell100
