[NJcap]

Okay fellas, I have been reading a lot on these forums and others and find a lot of cappers use faulty reasoning when making a pick here. One common flaw is picking a side based on what has happened the previous game, or the one before that, or any other game this season, also common game opponents for example GB.

Guys, this is a new game. New week. New matchups. New Strengths/weaknesses. Yes of course the other things probably have some role but very little compared to these new variables. Another thing that is totally dumb is people bringing up scores and they beat this team by this much or that team by that much or gave up this many points in the 2nd half blah blah blah. My response to those people= GAMEFLOW. This determines everything. Quick score early, quick TO early, changes everything, play calling, defensive approach ie aggressive or conserv. I thought this was common knowledge for the regs here but man i have seen alot of people here make a pick based on these things idk its kind of funny. MOVING ON.....

PANTHERS WIN IF- 1) they successfully run the ball especially on 1st and 2nd downs, if panthers have a lot of 3rd and 3 and lower they will control this game by the balls. 2) Get ahead and play with the lead, they havent really had too many games where they played from behind especially vs a good defense. 3) Riverboat Ron, If he gets too cute going for it on some 4TH downs i think this hurts panthers. They have the edge, shoot the FGs and let ur great D get stops vs a denver team with a very weak offense.

BRONCOS WIN IF- 1) Win TO battle, peyton will throw at least 1 int anything more dooms broncos, ronnie hillman is a fumble machine I have been following him past cpl years and he has improved but ball security is bad. 2) Refs let Talib and HArris get away with being physical with the WRs 3) Denver O line plays the game of there life, protect manning and run block decently just to keep the D honest.

WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN-- This will be a defensive battle type game. I doubt a team scores more than 2 tds. Slight edge goes to Carolina because the offense is better than Denvers, I'd say the defenses are equal maybe slightly towards denver stronger secondary. HOWEVER, Manning has lost a lot velocity/accuracy and Denver has absolutely no run game every 5 out of 6 games BUT he has the knowledge he knows what to audible, hes been to the SB already and with that knowledge and experience it evens out any of the slight advantages carolina has. SO THIS IS A 50/50 tossup type game so you know what to do guys...no lock or anything but everything seems even...My prediction 23-20 either team..If i had a gun to my head id go broncos but im taking the +6!!!!!

[KnownUnknown]

Nice analysis- I do disagree with you about Carolina having the stronger offense though. It relates to what you said about different teams, flow and all of that. Carolina beat a lot of weak teams (favorable schedule) and ran up scores versus weak defensive play. Denver actually has more weapons offensively (personnel-wise) than Carolina. If they work Vernon Davis in it will cause all kinds of havoc. The fact that they haven't figured how to utilize his talents speaks to their coaching staff lacking in offensive coordination skill (imo).

Unlike so many I've seen- I believe that Manning has enough in the tank to get the job done against a defense that contained “weak” opposition. Cam Newton’s run threat is the only real threat to this great Denver defense. Disrupt that element and it will throw the entire Carolina offense off since so much of what they accomplish is predicated off of Cam succeeding in that area. Denver coaches and players are smart enough and skilled enough to know that shutting him down nullifies Carolina’s offense. That is the job and it will get done by a top defense that has been dissed by the media and bettors. Professional pride and skill will prevail.


Prediction: Denver - 21

Carolina - 17

[Martinr]

Couple of good posts there.
As far as betting goes it's probably Denver with the points or nothing for me. I may not bet the game though. I've got a Denver futures bet, and I might just look for a live hedge or middle.
I'm not confident with Denver, but I think they'll come to the game as the better prepared, and their experience should give them some sort of an edge under pressure.
A lot has been spoken of Carolina's weaker schedule, but I think too much is made of it. The fact is they've beaten whatever has been put in front of them. Downgrading a 17-1 season on the SOS factor could be the biggest mistake Denver backers make.
It seems to me the line will probably close around 4.5 or 5 once the bigger bets comes in. Books would be unlikely to risk pushing it to 6.5 or 7 with the high limits and leave themselves open to the middle at 6.

[NJcap]

Yea I agree with you guys. This game is so even either way you look at it. Panthers have had an easy sched and have coasted through a lot of their games not even being close....one thing to note about this is that always comes to a screeching hault in the SB think rams greatest show on turf vs pats 1st SB i think, pats undefeated year, denver 2 yrs ago with high flying offense. Denver has always benefited a lot this year as well, theyve gotten so fortunate not even mentioning these past two playoff games but the way they got the numb 1 seed and a lot of other games where a pick 6 saved them from a loss.

Its just funny because some of the things i read on here. Peyton cant throw, people just hating on Cam, bringing up the seattle sb two years ago lmao, or throwing meaningless stats like peytons stats vs pats. You can win without being perect, pats dominated without a running game all year, Peyton doesnt need to throw 300 yards to cover a pt spread lol, football is played in all 3 phases.

Taking a step back and leaving emotion and recency bias out of it, this game is dead even. Even if you say one side has an advantage its slight i would say so taking 6 points would be the wise choice. Panthers could definitely win by 7, 8 or 10 easily none of us know that but a big primetime game like this on a neutral field and steam moving it more than 2 pts you have to take the pts, i believe there are just TOO MANY scenarios to cover.

[Bigh2001]

The easy schedule argument is total bullshit. This isnt college football where half the schedule are gimme games for the good teams. 4 teams in NFL history have been 17-1 before. This panthers team is historically good. Yes upsets can happen but my bet is more on a 2 score win than a close game.

[NJcap]

The easy schedule argument is total bullshit. This isnt college football where half the schedule are gimme games for the good teams. 4 teams in NFL history have been 17-1 before. This panthers team is historically good. Yes upsets can happen but my bet is more on a 2 score win than a close game.

i agree with you on that point. its the nfl and theres no such thing as an easy win. your viewpoint can very much happen, theyve been steam rolling all year they and have been the best team by far. i just find it hard to lay that many points on a neutral field along with my other reasons. we'll see what happens...cant wait pretty excited!!! got a couple of dimes on it.