1. 10-30-15 11:16 PM #1
    POOLSIDE
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    Broncos/Packers line movement question

    On Heritage, Broncos are currently at +3 (-115) It was +2.5 all morning.

    I want the Broncos at +3 and am trying to decide if I should lay that juice or be patient. On one hand, I feel like there will be buyback now that it's hit three. My fear is obviously that it'll jump back down to two and a half. On the other hand, I know the casinos don't want to keep jumping back and forth. Plus it's the Sunday night game, and every drunk dork is gonna love this "way too easy" Packers line.

    Anyone have any insight?
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  2. 10-30-15 11:18 PM #2
    Jowframs
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    Broncos ML
    Or leave it Alone
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  3. 10-31-15 12:24 AM #3
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jowframs View Post
    Broncos ML
    Or leave it Alone
    Yeah great, not what I'm asking at all.
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  4. 10-31-15 12:49 AM #4
    Unwritten Law
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    Your best chance is to wait near kickoff. The line will probably end up Green Bay -4, if it stays -3 (-115) and you'll get Broncos at -105.

    However, if it does in fact go even lower to say Green Bay -1.5 you'll definitely be getting Broncos +1.5 (-120/-115).
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  5. 10-31-15 01:01 AM #5
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unwritten Law View Post
    Your best chance is to wait near kickoff. The line will probably end up Green Bay -4, if it stays -3 (-115) and you'll get Broncos at -105.

    However, if it does in fact go even lower to say Green Bay -1.5 you'll definitely be getting Broncos +1.5 (-120/-115).

    Right, I want +3. If I felt comfortable at +1.5, I'd take the ML now and maybe again at kickoff if it inflates.
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  6. 10-31-15 06:35 AM #6
    Jowframs
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Yeah great, not what I'm asking at all.
    I just don't think it comes down to the spread
    Pick the winner
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  7. 10-31-15 06:40 AM #7
    Unwritten Law
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    I could really see Green Bay winning by the slightest of margin if they were to win. I don't think they'll completely dominate or win by more than 7, max. This could go right down to the wire with a two-point conversion or final play (FG) with the game on the line. If you decide to go with Denver, I think you should get all the points you can get.
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  8. 10-31-15 10:51 AM #8
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unwritten Law View Post
    I could really see Green Bay winning by the slightest of margin if they were to win. I don't think they'll completely dominate or win by more than 7, max. This could go right down to the wire with a two-point conversion or final play (FG) with the game on the line. If you decide to go with Denver, I think you should get all the points you can get.
    100% agree.
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  9. 10-31-15 10:52 AM #9
    POOLSIDE
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    It's back down to +2.5 this morning. Ugh.
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  10. 10-31-15 11:04 AM #10
    44 Mag
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    I see 4-5 different "houses" have it at -3 GB. Don't know which one you use. GL
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  11. 10-31-15 12:32 PM #11
    Eddy Munny
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    I'll be betting Broncos +3.5 through a local.

    Love getting the best defense, at home, with points.

    As for the offense... I'm not that worried about it. Peyton will find a way. Should be a close game, but the value is with Denver.
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  12. 10-31-15 01:18 PM #12
    LittleLarryY
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    If you liked 3 that much more than 2.5 what did the vig matter?

    Couldn't you buy it up to 3? Of course the juice could catch up to you in that case.

    Either way, seems to me that you take the best spread/juice combo you can, take ML, or pass on the game.

    As for me, it is a pass but lean to Packers ML.
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  13. 10-31-15 01:42 PM #13
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by LittleLarryY View Post
    If you liked 3 that much more than 2.5 what did the vig matter?

    Couldn't you buy it up to 3? Of course the juice could catch up to you in that case.

    Either way, seems to me that you take the best spread/juice combo you can, take ML, or pass on the game.

    As for me, it is a pass but lean to Packers ML.
    Sure, but I'd rather not lay -115 if I can wait for -105. I'm not sure why this is difficult to understand.
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  14. 10-31-15 02:55 PM #14
    LittleLarryY
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    Quote Originally Posted by POOLSIDE View Post
    Sure, but I'd rather not lay -115 if I can wait for -105. I'm not sure why this is difficult to understand.
    It's not difficult to understand. Lay the extra vig if you want it at 3.

    You are saying you have two options. Lay the extra juice or wait for better juice. Right now it seems you are waiting as odds are not where you want them.

    I do see the line moving back to where you want it but you just might have to pass if it doesn't get back there. No harm, no foul.

    I doubt it gets to -105. Maybe in those circumstances Denver ML would be the play? I don't see Denver winning this game though.
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  15. 10-31-15 06:32 PM #15
    JayDr3am
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    Wait till 3 minutes before the game starts
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  16. 10-31-15 06:42 PM #16
    Jowframs
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayDr3am View Post
    Wait till 3 minutes before the game starts
    Absolutely
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  17. 10-31-15 07:30 PM #17
    goldust
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    Cleveland gifted a game to the Broncos before their bye week. What's this line if Denver had lost that one? I think the value's on GB.
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  18. 10-31-15 10:24 PM #18
    POOLSIDE
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    I took them at -115. I may take them for more before kickoff if it makes sense.
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  19. 11-01-15 02:39 AM #19
    Milanboy
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    I'm in vegas right now and was talking to a poker dealer. He said that public is pounding the Packers, but all of the sharps are on the Broncos. Not sure if that helps.
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  20. 11-01-15 04:59 PM #20
    POOLSIDE
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milanboy View Post
    I'm in vegas right now and was talking to a poker dealer. He said that public is pounding the Packers, but all of the sharps are on the Broncos. Not sure if that helps.
    I'm not surprised. Makes me feel a little better about my Broncos pick if anything. Good luck at the table.
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  21. 11-01-15 06:57 PM #21
    emkee13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milanboy View Post
    I'm in vegas right now and was talking to a poker dealer. He said that public is pounding the Packers, but all of the sharps are on the Broncos. Not sure if that helps.
    'Sharps' if they indeed are 'sharps' are merely betting a number because of the perceived value on the league's best defense getting points at home.
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  22. 11-01-15 07:09 PM #22
    Mac4Lyfe
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    I'm with the public tonight. I'm all in at 2 books for this game. Feels like a setup but sometimes you have to roll with the hand your dealt. Go Packers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Milanboy View Post
    I'm in vegas right now and was talking to a poker dealer. He said that public is pounding the Packers, but all of the sharps are on the Broncos. Not sure if that helps.
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  23. 11-01-15 07:10 PM #23
    Willysmagic
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    I'm on Denver tonight also but I laugh when I hear the word "sharps". They call it sharp money because they are going against the public favorite. Cracks me up. So Called Sharps have been taking a bath this season. Hope this supposable sharp money is correct tonight, lol.
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  24. 11-01-15 07:12 PM #24
    Bbfromgpt
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    Seems like about 95% of the forum is on noodle arm
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  25. 11-01-15 07:15 PM #25
    Willysmagic
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bbfromgpt View Post
    Seems like about 95% of the forum is on noodle arm
    I'm betting this small, I'm going with the better defense at home. Should be a good game to watch and yes I agree Peyton played one year to long. He sucks ass and is holding this team back. If it was anyone else they would have been pulled already. Saw the same shit with Farve. He sucked ass his last 2 seasons.
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  26. 11-01-15 07:19 PM #26
    Jakenv21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willysmagic View Post
    I'm on Denver tonight also but I laugh when I hear the word "sharps". They call it sharp money because they are going against the public favorite. Cracks me up. So Called Sharps have been taking a bath this season. Hope this supposable sharp money is correct tonight, lol.
    Sharps are taking a bath THIS year. It is only half way thru the season. There is a reason why vegas is in business...public money is normally wrong. I really don't think "sharps" are on Denver because its against the public favorite this week, a 6-0 team at home getting points, sign me up. I'll accept the loss if it comes.
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  27. 11-01-15 07:28 PM #27
    Willysmagic
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    Jaken, Look at the numbers public all over the Packers. Sharp money is nothing more then going against the public. And yes the public has been winning this season regardless if its only half the season.
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  28. 11-01-15 07:28 PM #28
    House
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    In their last seven games as a home underdog, the Broncos are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS.
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  29. 11-01-15 07:29 PM #29
    Fthestockmarket
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willysmagic View Post
    Saw the same shit with Farve. He sucked ass his last 2 seasons.
    Uh, his last season sucked. His second to last season was the best season of his career. 107.2 rating, 4,202 yards, 33 TD 7 INT, blew the playoffs because his idiotic coach called for an idiotic roll out pass when he had a hurt ankle.

    That said, Manning has been pretty poor overall this season, and the Broncos have eeked out games they should have lost constantly. Doesn't make them a bad team, good teams manage to get the wins, but I don't know how you don't go all in Packers tonight.
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  30. 11-01-15 07:33 PM #30
    Willysmagic
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fthestockmarket View Post
    Uh, his last season sucked. His second to last season was the best season of his career. 107.2 rating, 4,202 yards, 33 TD 7 INT, blew the playoffs because his idiotic coach called for an idiotic roll out pass when he had a hurt ankle.

    That said, Manning has been pretty poor overall this season, and the Broncos have eeked out games they should have lost constantly. Doesn't make them a bad team, good teams manage to get the wins, but I don't know how you don't go all in Packers tonight.
    Brett threw the ball and you blame the coach, lmao. typical Farve fan. Dude has an ego larger then life. He also is an attention whore.
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  31. 11-01-15 07:42 PM #31
    Fthestockmarket
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    All true, but that was an undeniably great season/
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  32. 11-01-15 08:33 PM #32
    Willysmagic
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    Easiest win of the week
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  33. 11-01-15 09:09 PM #33
    dombrow3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willysmagic View Post
    Easiest win of the week
    Arod is horrible against top five defenses. Fade Packers when this clown matches up against top five defenses. I have been watching Manning reviewing film after each possession. Rodgers is watching the game in between possessions. penetrating clown.
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