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Falcons -3 a trap or easy money
Being from ATL i dislike betting on falcons but have obviously been successful this year. 5-0 team playing against a 1-4 terrible looking saints team. if the spread opened at -5 i would like falcons but -2.5 means the saints are going to show up and keep it close in nola. falcons ML -170 is my play but not sure how confident I am in this bet, vegas knows something. thoughts
all over the saints.. that TNF vibe gives them a huge shot at winning this game in N.O
It looks like Colston isn't going to play. If Falcons don't beat -3 I deserve to lose that money that's how I look at it. I'm on Falcons -3 for 3 units. Saints look horrible and falcons are obviously looking great. The determining factor for me is Freeman. Falcons finally have the type of play making running they have needed. I am very surprised this spread isn't -6 though. Saints barely have home field advantage these days.
I have to say being a "Falcunt" shit talker in recent years and it was backed up by their play in postseason especially. I'm very impressed with the post Smith era version! New coaching has brought some edge and passion to that D in games I've seen D Freeman what can you say absolute stud so far!! Imagine if this happened a few years back still had Tony G across middle be absolute nightmare for d coordinators! That said a poster did put up like wk back Rodgers, Brady, Brees in primetime like 80% winners.
Now I know past is past and Aints are looking done no doubt (certainly not playoff looking team or legit contender even to blind homers). "Thunderdome " not imposing as it once was but only thing holding me back is Atl receivers. Julio clearly not same past couple weeks hampered by injuries and now Hankerson! Kinda scary feels a bit trappy and we know IF Atl gets good head of steam going 1h the national fixed league will have their goons throwing laundry. I swear these primetime games if I just bet 1h under and sprinkled the dog I would be retired by now with the horse shit theatre they put on.
What's funny is though in primetime they try so hard in 1h to keep things reigned in and close and fukk over backers. When 2h hits things tends to open up a bit and Vegas gets gangbanged usually in all 4 holes with every teaser on earth hitting lol
dont think atl needs a ton from julio or the passing game this week, not only has this coaching staff brought a tough minded defense but they also have a physical run gm and attempting the second most rushes per game this year. aints run d is same soft crap, atl gonna do what they do and dominate time of possession. even if it close they will punish aints in the 4th when they wore down..Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy
you know how i feel bout this thu night shitfest and i been just passing for several weeks but i had to jump in here. think the total way high so the under my fav play but cant resist a bet on atl either. bottom line for some reason aints continue to get far too much respect at home, cant believe they were still laying 10 to tampa this year after getting beat as sizable favs so often last season. i actually bet aints in the sunday night gm vs dal but that was the 1st time in 2+ years i felt their number wasnt inflated at home, pussies would have liked to blow that now all a sudden they back to getting more respect than they deserve! crazy if ya ask me. if they beat me so be it, ill still be up plenty fading their overrated midget qb stuffed inside that overrated jersey that had a few good years. atl and un for me
This line makes absolutely no sense. Atl should be at least -4. NO is not a good team. I just dont get why LV would post a number like this. 80+% of action will be on Atl. At least make it 3.5 to entice more dog action
I feel like Atlanta's "resurgence" is largely because Mike Smith was a POS head coach. Who did that guy have dirt on to keep his job as long as he did?
could say the same for every time that cardinals have ventured onto the road. zona at chi -2.5, open -2.5 at shitbag det. 2 blowouts. -3 at pit where their defense is gonna abuse vick into sack fumbles and pick 6s. think this atl line is helped by fact they been giving aints at home too much respect for the last year and a half..hell just a few weeks ago atl was virtually a pk at dal right after they lost romo, lol.
I took this bet earlier today.
If this bet loses, it was worth it.
A Falcons team on the rise, a Saints team that is falling.
The Patriots bet could be the trap bet this weekend.
Atlanta has been winning towards the end of games. Almost got upset by the Skins, and they look great? Saints or not play for me.
bucs beat aints as 10 point dogs in the big easy..
skins not a bad team and yea atl played poorly. they also ran all over the skins who have a very good run defense. week before they blew out hou, week before that dal got out to lead but atl smoked them from the middle of the 2nd qrtr on, at nyg was win at the end, phi before them they controlled majority then philly got going late to make close.
last week and the nyg came down to the end, hou/dal/phi were never really in doubt. pretty sure philly just beat the aints by 30ish! dal took them to ot, skins and nyg will beat aints when they play them. falcons far and away best team in the nfc south and one of the 3 best teams in the nfc. confused on who exactly you think is looking better, surely not the team you say to back?
Good points.
I am just not sold on ATL. Saints have been awful, but I guess because it's a primetime game at home after a blowout loss... getting points here is enticing me. Big majority on ATL and no line movement tells me books are comfortable with that. Looks like trouble to me.
Not trying to sway anyone, just thinking out loud.
Is there any stats on this situation? Primetime game on the home turf after coming from a blowout loss? Would be interesting..
Saints surely wants to prove themselfs after that blowout, but I'm pretty sure Atlanta wants that W aswell.
I'm just thinking that Saints will have a hard time moving that offense. They miss Graham.
books seem perfectly comfortable with a lot of obvious ass plays cashing, not hurting their bottom line. look no further than every zona road game (crush chi and det opening less than a fg fav in both), atl at dal after romo injury. all superior team without question and laying less than a fg, all blowouts.
honestly i like the under better than a side but i have no clue how you justify playing aints other than the contrarian angle. dont get me wrong i love being against popular opinion but i cant do it just for the sake of doing it, i have to be able to break down logically why the so called "square side" is the wrong side.. painfully obvious plays cash and crash every week, books dont shed a tear as this day and age their just as many wanna be sharps as squares happily betting the "fishy" line. in the end the suckers who win on atl for the most part have piss poor money management and will give it back on the next "easy" winner they see. just my opinion but i think the whole ideal of books dont give away money, vegas has those big buildings, ext ext ext is so very outdated..
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Every time a game has looked too easy easy this year it has cashed...Just take the better team and even pay a little more to get it down to 2.5 if you want...I see no way that New Orleans stays up with ATL... New Orleans couldn't stay up with Philly or Tampa Bay and we no how bad their defenses are... Washington is a much better team than New Orleans and they found a way to pull that one out... Atlanta has a running game now and that opens up the big downfield plays for Julio... Don't overthink this and try to justify how New Orleans is gonna cover just so by the slim chance they do cover you can come back on here Friday and act like your a football genius...
Last edited by KSmooth4U; 10-14-15 at 10:05 AM.
After all said and done, there are only 2 teams to choose from.
Not to compare the 2 games, but many people thought my Bears play last weekend was a bad decision as well.
I might over analyze primetime games because they have been my kryptonite over the years.
Still like the Saints.
Keep it real guys. If the "obvious" side always won, we would all be rich and gambling for a living.
Who thought the bears pick was a bad one?? The public was on KC just 55%...That's not an overwhelming amount of $$$ coming in for KC...Chicago was actually one of my picks last week too but I didn't feel like I was going out on a ledge or making some kind of genius pick by doing it... 10 was way too many pts...
there were very justifiable reasons for bears last week. for bears vs oak. just cause they not obvious reasons doesnt mean there are not reasons a great deal of the time, hell it the nfl 80% of the time i can make a strong case for either side, that why they make spreads for exactly that.. im with ya i hate prime-time and pacifically thu night, game a joke and i rarely bet it.. really like the under 51 this week tho..After all said and done, there are only 2 teams to choose from.
Not to compare the 2 games, but many people thought my Bears play last weekend was a bad decision as well.
I might over analyze primetime games because they have been my kryptonite over the years.
Still like the Saints.
This year the obvious side has won more times than not...Look at GB vs SF... Det vs Den... NE vs Dal...Cmon if you didn't pound NE last week and feel good about it then you are seriously overthinking games...
the "obvious" side prob hits just about the same clip as flipping a coin.
Yes, I overthink games. It's part of the addiction/fun for me.
It wasn't like belligerent arguments, but I let SBR talk me out of playing them on a teaser. I still played a side for 2 units, and swapped the Bears out for the PIT and luckily still hit. I don't usually let people on SBR sway me too much. I do have a lot of respect for a handful of cappers here though.
i didnt bet them, i played the under. nfl a funny thing, nothing ever stays the same and nobody beats it year after year so while everyone wants to say what was easy this and that, fact is aint none of it easy and those cupcakes folks been cashing will be burying them later on.
Hawks easy!! Saints are really really bad!
Take the Cards instead.
As a Falcons fan, I try not to bet on them. I just like watching them play without worrying if they cover.
I am curious about who is banged up on both teams. In my opinion , Spiller and Cooks haven't lived up to the Saints expectations.
On the other hand, if the Falcons play like they did last week, I think they lose SU.
So how confident are you guys? 1 Unit? 10 Units?
Reason I ask is there are some people here who only lay $10 bets and say "I'm going big on this one", which could mean $25.
I would only go 1 unit. Underestimating Drew Brees is a dangerous thing.
Well Julio may be out this week
Julio will play but he will be limited. Roddy White needs to see some action.
1.5x on under and 1x on atl.. hate betting side and total as much as i hate thu night but i couldnt resist a play on atl here. lol..
Underestimating Drew Brees is a terrible thing...If this was 2009...
I hope you are right.
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