[dkuritz]

Something that I like to look at when handicapping the NFL is a teams yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play compared to their opponents combined defensive average allowed and their yards per rush allowed, yards per pass allowed, and yards per play allowed compared to their opponents combine offensive average. This analysis allows you to see how a team has performed based on the difficulty or lack thereof of their opponents, not just as a raw number. A very powerful tool that provides this data nicely is foxsheets. Here is a link to the foxsheet for tonight's game between the Texans and Colts http://foxsheets.statfoxsports.com/N...heet.aspx?r=at. So using the net YPP differential for the match ups this week, I formulated lines based on net YPP differential and compared them to the lines available on the market. Based on these stats, their is value in taking the following teams:

Ten +2.5/3
Wash +7.5
CHI +9
STL +9/9.5
Cin -2.5/3
Oak +4.5

Here's a link to the spreadsheet I made to formulate these picks: https://twitter.com/DKs_Picks/status/652141196127526913

I'll continue to track these picks and they should only get stronger as the year goes on and there is more data. BOL.

[POOLSIDE]

Have you gone back a year or two and checked how the system would have fared?

[dkuritz]

Have you gone back a year or two and checked how the system would have fared?

That is something I would like to do, but foxsheets doesn't give me the historical data and it would be very tedious to do it myself.

[dkuritz]

What I do know is that I have looked at these stats in the past and they definitely have some value, I just never made a system out of it.

[A4K]

That is something I would like to do, but foxsheets doesn't give me the historical data and it would be very tedious to do it myself.

sportsinsights.com

use their bets lab

[dkuritz]

sportsinsights.com

use their bets lab

They don't have the combined averages of opponents on there I'm pretty sure.

[dkuritz]

I'm just going to test it out over the next few weeks. I wouldn't recommend blindly following the plays it produces, but it could serve as another angle for something you like. Personally, I liked Ten at +3, Wash, Stl, Cincy, and Oak this week before I even did this.

[dkuritz]

Hope you got Cincy at -2.5, but I'll count it as a push. Good first week for the net ypp differential picks. Could've easily been 6-0 as the rams and raiders had great opportunities to cover.

Week 5: 3-2
Overall: 3-2

[dkuritz]

Week 6:

NO +3.5
CLE +4
Buf +3.5
KC +4
Jax +2
SD +10

Link to this weeks spreadsheet...https://twitter.com/DKs_Picks/status/654076902756499456