[Sherfire]

What's up ya'll. I've never been a betting type of person but after a decade of successfully picking division winners, games, and super bowls i've decided to just lay down some coin.

Let me preface by saying I know diddly-poo about gambling. Yesterday, I didn't even know what terms like units or moneyline meant.

I've never bet because I get some serious anxiety from this crap. Once money is on the line my reason and logic goes out the door. Hoping I can keep that in check and make some solid picks over the course of the season. I'm also betting college football and some MLB. The MLB picks i'm just taking from a friend who makes bank each year.

So my picks for this week are

Bucs +3 2 unit
49ers +8 1/2 2 unit
Rams +6 1/2 2 unit


If anyone is curious i'm playing two MLB picks today - Marlins -1 1/2 4 unit and Royals/Twins under 7 1/2 1 unit

College football i'm betting Michigan State in a blow out 21 1/2 and Clemson to handle Notre Dame

Wish me luck, troll me, give me advice, or stick around for the laughs as I burn up a bunch of paper.

[slacker00]

I wouldn't worry about unit designations until at least one winning season at a given sport.

But do take notes and keep track of 1 star, 2 star & 3 star plays or whatever, you'll learn a lot. After enough data, you'll start to see a trend about whether your 3 star play is really that much better than your 1 star play, etc.

For me there isn't that much difference between a good play and a great play. So, I just flat bet everything 1% of BR. It's more important to distinguish a play from a no-play than trying to apply Kelly's system, which most people get wrong anyway.

Also, you'll notice the guys that assign unit/stars/whatever to plays or either touts or wannabe touts or somehow picked up that habit along those lines. Basically touts will maybe give away a 1 star bet for free but you've got to pay for their 5 star pick, it's just a marketing gimmick.

So, in conclusion, maybe shelve the unit designation until you've got good data history showing that your different play designations really do hit at meaningfully different rates. If you can confidently determine your 60% ATS plays from your 65% ATS plays, then go ahead and dive into Kelly's system, here's the Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

[Ryermkd]

I wouldn't worry about unit designations until at least one winning season at a given sport.

But do take notes and keep track of 1 star, 2 star & 3 star plays or whatever, you'll learn a lot. After enough data, you'll start to see a trend about whether your 3 star play is really that much better than your 1 star play, etc.

For me there isn't that much difference between a good play and a great play. So, I just flat bet everything 1% of BR. It's more important to distinguish a play from a no-play than trying to apply Kelly's system, which most people get wrong anyway.

Also, you'll notice the guys that assign unit/stars/whatever to plays or either touts or wannabe touts or somehow picked up that habit along those lines. Basically touts will maybe give away a 1 star bet for free but you've got to pay for their 5 star pick, it's just a marketing gimmick.

So, in conclusion, maybe shelve the unit designation until you've got good data history showing that your different play designations really do hit at meaningfully different rates. If you can confidently determine your 60% ATS plays from your 65% ATS plays, then go ahead and dive into Kelly's system, here's the Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Wow well said, nice of you to take the time for the new joiner.

Careful of car/tb game, I think taking the points in the other two are the logical plays but it's certianly a risk... no playa for me. Have to support car -170 ml

[Jowframs]

Love Tampa,St Louis
gltu

[slacker00]

Wow well said, nice of you to take the time for the new joiner. ...

I'm hoping others take it to heart as well. Seems like I make a post like this every NFL season when I see the "units" flying around. I guess it's a little pet peeve of mine as well because it's basically touts that started this whole "unit" thing and I feel bad that players are trying to clone the touts whether they realize it or not.

In case some of your guys don't know what I'm talking about when I'm referring to "touts", I dug around and found a video example. I don't know this doc sports guy, maybe he's ok, but he just sounds like a cardboard tout type. Enjoy.

[Sherfire]

Wow thanks Slacker. I have managed to figure out what touts are but I didn't realize units originated from them. My interpretation of units was simply the confidence in the outcome. I figured i'd start at 20 dollar minimum bets and based on my confidence i'd increase the bet. So 20 bucks = 1 unit.. 40 = 2 and so on. I guess I just dunno what i'm talking about so i'll not list my units.

Question though, in your first post you said "I just flat bet everything 1% of BR".. what is BR?

Also, are there any spreadsheets for keeping track of player/team data that I may find useful? Any good web sources for that kind of data? I'm full of questions.

And thanks Jowfarms. GL2U2

[Ryermkd]

Br=bankroll...

E.g. $2500 bank = recommended $25 1u bet.

I like to be more conservative and do 2500 with $20 a unit. Mind you I sometimes get crazy and shove 12u on buffalo

[Sherfire]

Br=bankroll...
Mind you I sometimes get crazy and shove 12u on buffalo

hahahaha, this may be the year to do that!

[slacker00]

Wow thanks Slacker. I have managed to figure out what touts are but I didn't realize units originated from them. My interpretation of units was simply the confidence in the outcome. I figured i'd start at 20 dollar minimum bets and based on my confidence i'd increase the bet. So 20 bucks = 1 unit.. 40 = 2 and so on. I guess I just dunno what i'm talking about so i'll not list my units.

Question though, in your first post you said "I just flat bet everything 1% of BR".. what is BR?

Also, are there any spreadsheets for keeping track of player/team data that I may find useful? Any good web sources for that kind of data? I'm full of questions.

And thanks Jowfarms. GL2U2

Yes, sorry about BR. BR=Bankroll.

I've tried all kinds of spreadsheets, databases. But you'll think I'm crazy, I always go back to plain old-fashioned notebooks. So, I can't really recommend anything, but any old spreadsheet like Excel is useful. I just find it tedious to enter numbers all the time. If I'm trying to figure out a specific wrinkle, I'll use those. But, there's just something about seeing everything written out in my own hand, almost like I can figure out my temperment by my handwriting when I took those notes (was I tired? agitated? in a hurry? etc). I guess I can be superstitious like anyone else, I seem to do my best when I write it all out and go through this routine, maybe just dumb luck.

As for web sports data, I pretty much stick to pro-football-reference.com. I'll admit it's a little clumsy and there are better ones out there. But somewhere along the line I started using it and I'm familiar with it, so I stick to it.

[JayDr3am]

I wouldn't worry about unit designations until at least one winning season at a given sport.

But do take notes and keep track of 1 star, 2 star & 3 star plays or whatever, you'll learn a lot. After enough data, you'll start to see a trend about whether your 3 star play is really that much better than your 1 star play, etc.

For me there isn't that much difference between a good play and a great play. So, I just flat bet everything 1% of BR. It's more important to distinguish a play from a no-play than trying to apply Kelly's system, which most people get wrong anyway.

Also, you'll notice the guys that assign unit/stars/whatever to plays or either touts or wannabe touts or somehow picked up that habit along those lines. Basically touts will maybe give away a 1 star bet for free but you've got to pay for their 5 star pick, it's just a marketing gimmick.

So, in conclusion, maybe shelve the unit designation until you've got good data history showing that your different play designations really do hit at meaningfully different rates. If you can confidently determine your 60% ATS plays from your 65% ATS plays, then go ahead and dive into Kelly's system, here's the Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

damn. couldn't have been said better. what a welcoming. bravo.

[Sherfire]

Marlins -1 1/2GAME CANCELLED
Twins/Royals Under 7 1/2 - WINNER


Off to a good start. Let's see what happens this football weekend!!!

[Sherfire]

I think the gambling gods are trying to suck me in so they can beat me down. I went a little crazy placing a ton of bets based on a number of factors. Don't wanna jinx myself but ....



I'm gonna lose in UL-Monroe here in a minute and I have Texas San Antonio at -3 1/2 which is ongoing.

I also laid on Clemson -1 1/2 , Colorado +7, Hawaii/Boise under 57, Fresno and San Dieago over 51 1/2 - Waiting on those.

Not so confident in my NFL picks. I based my decisions on a faulty system I think. I've been refining over the past few days.

I bet on the Marlins yesterday, game got postponed. Didn't get to re-bet that before it closed but they won today as well.

Right now as it stands i'm 7-1. 8-1 if you count the Marlins pick... dammit

[Sherfire]

After last nights games

Fresno/San Diego State o51 1/2 - Loss
Hawaii/Boise u57 - WIN/Miracle
Colorado +7 - Loss
UL Monroe +6 - Loss
Texas San An -3 1/2 WIN

This week totals are 11-4 - Still angry i missed that Marlins bet.

For NFL football I have made some additions over the past couple of days

NYJ -2
Bills - -5 1/2
Bears +3 1/2
Bungals -3 1/2
Broncos -7

As mentioned in the OP I also took Bucs +3, niners +8 1/2, Rams + 6 1/2

That's 8 picks for this weekend. If I weren't a Saints fan i'd bet on the Saints to handle Dallas but that could be homer emotions.

Want to remind everyone that I don't know wtf i'm doing here. I'm not trying to pretend like I do. I'm here to learn, get advice, and outlet some of this anxiety. GL to everyone.

If anyone is fading me, please let me know afterwards. I'm learning and am curious about fade strategy.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Welcome and bol newb! Few pointers probably serve you well

1. Never bet with emotion (noticed your take on Saints good for you) think of it a business don't let fanboy inside make trigger decisions.

2. Bet within means and try to avoid the action junkie trap. Just because there is a gm on does not mean you have to bet if you see no angle you really like.

3. Don't get too involved with teases and parlays. Nothing wrong with a tease or two but keep them simple crossing key #'s. And teases are for football only NEVER mess with them in hoop its suckers gold.

4. Maybe most important follow your gut /instincts. Bol to ya

[Sherfire]

Thanks R.P.! I love advice from the knowledgeable. Anyone else feels like tutoring/mentoring me i'm all ears. Send me a PM or post here. I'd love to learn and believe me when I say I'll love you for it. Funny story is that I was once really close with an old time bookie who was involved with Heritage's startup and close with the owner. I had all the knowledge I could possibly gain at my fingertips but at that time I was not interested in this. That man, Doug Keefe, has now passed but he was truly a mover and shaker. He was a pro boxer, boxing judge, famous bookie, and someone very well respected in this industry. He may have saved my life at one time... I miss him. sadface

Anyway...

Went 2-2 on early day action. I learned something today which has been iterated by R.P. and others.. follow your instincts. My instincts said don't bet Tampa and bet Carolina instead. Those are two teams that I know a ton about and have watched all of their games this season. I feel freakin dumb for betting Tampa. The other was the Bills. I don't know much about the Bills except... I know that they have struggled for more than a decade. I know they have garbage at the QB positions.. I know Rex Ryan's track record. .. My instincts said DON"T BUT THIS GAME.. but I did because sooo many other people were confident in this pick. So I learned to ALWAYS trust MY instincts and not others'.

So 2-2 on early action. Even. whew

The 3 picks i have for tonight are listed above. I like the Broncos to cover, Rams to cover, and SF to cover. I am much more confident in these picks than any of the early games except the Bengals/chiefs.

Week so far is 13-6

See you after the action tonight

[R.P. McMurphy]

No problemo you sound a bit like me. Been a fan of sports 30+ years and played growing up so I know my shit pretty well. Just started this "game" with $ at stake about 5 years ago though. Been thru many ups and downs it's a tough racket but just trying to pass advice I've learned hard way. You have some very good people in here guiding tho like Slacker who's good a guy as you will find at sbr. Just take notes do your thing , wager and prosper hopefully fyi on Donks myself -6.5 it's my Nfl best play and have it in beat the prick contest and has Donks D in fantasy. Now this is coming from a Raider fan who HATES Denver!! It's biz baby just biz

[Sherfire]

Ya, R.P. we probably are a bit alike. I played too. Fan as well. Hardcore football fan and just enjoy some other sports. What kinds of notes do you take? What are you looking at?

1-2 on the evening. meh. To recap today...

Bucs +3 LOSS -Really stupid bet for me
Niners + 8 1/2 LOSS
Rams + 6 1/2 - WIN One of only 2 NFL plays I was confident about
Jets -2 WIN
Bills - 5 1/2 LOSS - Another stupid bet i should have known better
Bears + 3 1/2 - WIN
Bengals - 3 1/2 WIN
Broncos - 7 LOSS

On NFL picks that's .500 or 4-4 or not good but not bad

Total for the betting week.. my first week ever betting...15 - 8 Total return on investment 59% ..



Need to get better at this, though. Ordered a couple of books to read i'm sure everyone is familiar with.

[Ryermkd]

sorry sherfire I can't be perfect, that's why bankroll management is important, listen to slacker00 and not me lol....

was 3-1-1 on the week and had easy money, If I just followed the simple 1u or 2u max rules...

[Sherfire]

sorry sherfire I can't be perfect, that's why bankroll management is important, listen to slacker00 and not me lol....

was 3-1-1 on the week and had easy money, If I just followed the simple 1u or 2u max rules...

OH hey man.. .no i'm not referring to you about the Bills... I wouldn't trust just one random persons opinion who ALSO happens to be a fan of the team. Seriously, no worries m8. Hey, the Bills may win that game 9 out of 10 times but this was just that one.. ya know? No reason to be sorry my friend.

Another thing, If I had just stuck to the picks that I knew about in which I had confidence then my NFL record would be more like 4 - 2

[Can U Tank It]

I wouldn't worry about unit designations until at least one winning season at a given sport.

But do take notes and keep track of 1 star, 2 star & 3 star plays or whatever, you'll learn a lot. After enough data, you'll start to see a trend about whether your 3 star play is really that much better than your 1 star play, etc.

For me there isn't that much difference between a good play and a great play. So, I just flat bet everything 1% of BR. It's more important to distinguish a play from a no-play than trying to apply Kelly's system, which most people get wrong anyway.

Also, you'll notice the guys that assign unit/stars/whatever to plays or either touts or wannabe touts or somehow picked up that habit along those lines. Basically touts will maybe give away a 1 star bet for free but you've got to pay for their 5 star pick, it's just a marketing gimmick.

So, in conclusion, maybe shelve the unit designation until you've got good data history showing that your different play designations really do hit at meaningfully different rates. If you can confidently determine your 60% ATS plays from your 65% ATS plays, then go ahead and dive into Kelly's system, here's the Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

exactly! some great gouge.

[Sherfire]

Prop - Jimmy Graham over 60 1/2 Receiving Yards -105

Jimmy had over 80 yards a week ago. Lynch is out, Seattle has depth and can still run the ball. But I think that they're gonna sling it as well. Detroit doesn't have much of a pass rush. It's going to give time for Graham to get downfield and catch a couple of big ones. Seattle didn't do a great job of getting Jimmy the ball in the first couple of weeks, which he cried about in typical J. Graham fashion, then 80+ yards the next week. This week will be the same.

Another bet I like but didn't take was Detroit under 16 1/2. Statistically they're gonna score less than 16 but I haven't watched them play this season so I don't feel comfortable playing it.

[Sherfire]

Prop - Jimmy Graham over 60 1/2 Receiving Yards -105

Jimmy had over 80 yards a week ago. Lynch is out, Seattle has depth and can still run the ball. But I think that they're gonna sling it as well. Detroit doesn't have much of a pass rush. It's going to give time for Graham to get downfield and catch a couple of big ones. Seattle didn't do a great job of getting Jimmy the ball in the first couple of weeks, which he cried about in typical J. Graham fashion, then 80+ yards the next week. This week will be the same.

Another bet I like but didn't take was Detroit under 16 1/2. Statistically they're gonna score less than 16 but I haven't watched them play this season so I don't feel comfortable playing it.

Chancellor just made some folks a lot of money. I saw the line on the 16 1/2 lions under drop to 14 1/2 in a matter of seconds. Shoulda played it. oh well

Early on it looked like Lions had a gameplan to take jimmy out of the game. Too bad. I knew the seahawks O-line was struggling, but i didn't realize that they were freakin turble.

15 - 9 ytd after the loss tonight

[Sherfire]

Just a heads up, my buddy who gave me the tips on baseball earlier this week gave me another - NYY HOU O 7

I dunno much about baseball but I do know my friend. He's very good at handicapping baseball and he says he's betting 2u on this one. So far he's 3-0 on the baseball plays he suggested to me. He's been on a hot streak this past month at around 75%

[Sherfire]

Bet-Labs... I purchased this and gave it a go because I don't feel like spending weeks building databases and guess what? It's a pile of garbage. There are some useful filters to create systems but the filter options are anemic. At best you can spot trends or make correlations but as a tool for prediction it's garbage. The team statistics section is anemic and lacking many of the useful statistics that I would prefer to consider. It has a weather section that doesn't have precipitation... really? It has a humidity section but it doesn't work. Its shortcomings go well beyond that but I don't wanna leave a wall of text.

All in all it was a waste of money.

[Sherfire]

More Picks

NFL for week 5
NYG -7
Cards - 2 1/2
Bengals -3
Sea/Beng U43 1/2
Pats -7 1/2

NCAAF
So. Miss +5 1/2
VT +1
Tenn U +3
Iowa St. +12 1/2
Nebraska - 1 1/2
Northwestern +8
Michigan St. -14

MLB for tonight
Cubs SU also U 5 1/2


I created a few new algorithms for collegiate football.. we'll see if they pay off. About 5 of those picks came from one new algorithm showing 65% ROI. We shall see.

[Sherfire]

Just wanted to say something about Bet-Labs. I contacted them and told them my frustration with the software citing the same issues I mentioned plus some more that I didn't. They were very kind and refunded a large chunk of my money back. I think those guys are classy and they intend to improve Bet-Labs by adding more filters. If they do that i'll return to that software. If I were a large better right now I would certainly have that tool in my arsenal.

[Sherfire]

After tonight's 2-bet winner and yesterday's loss on Yanks/Astros that puts MLB picks at 4-1

Yanks/Astros O 7 LOSS
Pirate/Cub U 5 1/2 WIN
Pirate/Cub Cub SU WIN

MNF Pick
NFL J. Graham O 60 1/2 LOSS


YTD 17-10

I had an epiphany today when considering some bets. As mentioned, I learned to go with my instincts. I've been reading tons of opinions on which plays to make on these forums, twitter, and a real life friend. But if I'm ultimately going to go with my instincts then I shouldn't confuse things by getting dozens of opinions. It adds to the confusion. Someone may say pick team A but if my instincts say no, then i'm not gonna do it. So, I have resolved to simply do my own statistical analysis and then make the pick based on my own intuition. That's not to say that if my betting pro buddy says he's got a lock that I won't play it- It's just that up to this point my instincts have not let me down. I'm sure they will as they have in the past but more often than not they are on the money.

Thanks for sharing.

[Sherfire]

After tonight's 2-bet winner and yesterday's loss on Yanks/Astros that puts MLB picks at 5-1

Yanks/Astros O 7 LOSS
Pirate/Cub U 5 1/2 WIN
Pirate/Cub Cub SU WIN

MNF Pick
NFL J. Graham O 60 1/2 LOSS


YTD 17-10

I had an epiphany today when considering some bets. As mentioned, I learned to go with my instincts. I've been reading tons of opinions on which plays to make on these forums, twitter, and a real life friend. But if I'm ultimately going to go with my instincts then I shouldn't confuse things by getting dozens of opinions. It adds to the confusion. Someone may say pick team A but if my instincts say no, then i'm not gonna do it. So, I have resolved to simply do my own statistical analysis and then make the pick based on my own intuition. That's not to say that if my betting pro buddy says he's got a lock that I won't play it- It's just that up to this point my instincts have not let me down. I'm sure they will as they have in the past but more often than not they are on the money.

Thanks for sharing.

MLB Picks are at 5-1 not 4-1... Soo much to keep track of.. wheeeee

[Sherfire]

Added a play

Texans/Colts U 41

Texans D is pretty bad but I think with the Colts' injuries and shaky OL that the Texans should limit their offense tonight.

[Sherfire]

Added 1 more. Bears/Chiefs O 44 1/2 - Both teams are near the bottom of the league in scoring defense. Both teams are capable of moving the football. I think this is a smart play here.

[Sherfire]

Added a number of NCAAF picks for today

Duke - 13 1/2
California + 7 1/2
California ML
Wake Forest / BC u 35 1/2
Ohio -15
Toledo -15
Pittsburgh -8
Northwestern/Michigan u 36 1/2

Texans Colts u 41 1/2 was a loss on TNF

Also had played a So. Miss and Virginia Tec and went 1-1 but I won't include that in totals since I didn't post it.

[Sherfire]

After today's early action 6-5 - But after all the juice it's not much of a gain.

YTD - 23 - 15

Tennessee U +3 WIN
Iowa State +12 1/2 LOSS
Nebraska -1 1/2 LOSS
Northwestern +8 LOSS
Duke -13 1/2 WIN
Wake Forest/Boston Coll. U 35 1/2 WIN
Ohio -15 WIN
Toledo -15 WIN
Pittsburgh U -8 LOSS
Northwestern/Mich U 36 1/2 LOSS
Appalachian St. -14 WIN


Tonight we have California +7 1/2 and ML and also Mich. State -14

LET'S GO GOLDEN BEARS!!!!

[Sherfire]

After late night action

Cal + 7 1/2 WIN
Cal ML LOSS - Goff through five freaking picks. Cal lost by 6. I think Goff had money on Utah. Only played half my normal bet but still.
Mich State -14 LOSS

Played a few hockey games today and went 2-1 but I won't include them in the YTD cause we're talkin football hur. YTD - 24 -17Lookin forward to a good day tomorrow in the NFL

[Sherfire]

NFL Action Week 5

Pats -7 1/2 WIN
Bengals -3 PUSH
Bengals/Hawk u43 1/2 LOSS
Cards -2 1/2 WIN
Giants -7 LOSS
Bears/Chiefs O 44 1/2 LOSS

NFL week 5 was not good 2-4-1

YTD 26-20-1

[Sherfire]

Play tonight

Falcons @ Saints - Falcons -2 1/2

Look, I'm a huge Saints fan so I had to examine this one carefully. As much as I am a Saints fan I'm a bigger fan of money. The Saints are in disarray right now. There is infighting between players and coaches. During the interviews with the Saints players this week some of those issues bubbled up to the surface such as the interview with Kenny Vaccaro referencing Browner's performance. Browner also got into a confrontation with a reporter in the locker room. Payton and Ryan going at it on the sideline all during the Philadelphia game. That's nothing new but the intensity of these disputes is growing. There were several reports yesterday that Payton is talking to other teams about coaching jobs next season. Today there is a report again.

Outside of all that distraction and non-cohesion you have several key injuries. LT Terron Armstead is out for this game and he is the second best player on this team. His replacement is a rookie who was drafted in the first round, A. Peat, but I expect him to struggle as he did against Philly. Evans has practiced this week but he is also banged up though he will play. Lelito, the starting LG is out for this game. The #3 corner in Damian Swann is out for this game. He has been a bright spot for this struggling team. DE Bobby Richardson is also out for this game. He was the backup to Hicks which was traded to NE a couple weeks ago and now we're going with 3rd string UDFA to start on what was already a struggling DL.

Add to that Punter Thomas Moorestead who has been one of the best in the league, if not the best punter, over the last 8 years or so.

The Saints are in disarray. The interviews with the players are doom and gloom. There were two players that made comments suggesting that they have too many problems to begin to correct on a short week. It's gameplan only.

Traditionally these Falcons/Saints game are close. In 2012 ATL came to NOLA 8-0 and very confident. The Saints derailed that party. The 2012 team was vastly different with key players/Leaders like M. Jenkins, R. Harper, Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham, Colston(still in his prime), Ben Grubbs, Johnathan Vilma, Jabari Greer... All of these key players, and more, are long gone. This team consists of low salary patchwork players to compensate for poor cap management.

Atlanta is going to win this one easily. The Saints young players show a lot of promise but there are just too many holes on both sides of the ball to slow down a team that is playing this well right now. Normally I wouldn't bet this game but the emotional pulse of this team is almost flatlined and it will take a miracle for the Saints to even keep this close.