[Willysmagic]

Another forum I read thinks that if you take the better team your playing the public favorite. I also read it here from time to time. I'll agree that sometimes books will lower numbers but its not always in support of the favorite sometimes they want to get you to take the points. I've watched another forum take a bath the last few weeks because they refuse to take the obvious side. Not every public favorite is going to lose and not everyone is going to win. Last night the Packers were the obvious pick way better then KC by the numbers. Packers at home are incredible and the numbers were simple to see. Love the word "sharp money". Sharp money my ass, cap the game and look at head to head and home field advantage. Some poster say well the public has killed it so I am taking the team I know is going to lose. They think they are sharp for doing this. I say they are not looking at the value certain teams offer. They will come in crying the next day saying they had the right side and make excuses for their inability to cap a game by the numbers and advantages. So next time you hear the word "sharp Money " ask yourself is it really worth taking a chance on a shit team. Last nights game they were giving money away. They lowered the spread to get you to take the team that had no chance. But let the sharps think they know more then the rest of us. It's their short coming that will cost them on the obvious. Carry on you so called sharpies I'll continue to take favorites when the numbers tell me to do so.

[Martinr]

I doubt any books lowered the line to get more money on the Chiefs, if that's what you're saying. Weight of money moved that line. A few (most) of the books would have then lowered the number before they got hit as well.
If people were betting KC just because the line moved, and they bet that way regularly, then they're on a -EV path.
Plenty of "sharp" money misses the target. I think yesterday was one of those times. There would have been a number of big holding books that won yesterday. 1-0 to the books. It's a long season though.

[Willysmagic]

I doubt any books lowered the line to get more money on the Chiefs, if that's what you're saying. Weight of money moved that line. A few (most) of the books would have then lowered the number before they got hit as well.
If people were betting KC just because the line moved, and they bet that way regularly, then they're on a -EV path.
Plenty of "sharp" money misses the target. I think yesterday was one of those times. There would have been a number of big holding books that won yesterday. 1-0 to the books. It's a long season though.

Another dumb response, sharps bet KC because Greenbay was to obvious of a pick. Books moved the line down SOMETIMES to make people think people are betting the Chiefs. So you doubt all you want it happens. So sharp money looks at a game and if it looks to obvious they bet the other way .

[Martinr]

I'm not too sure what you're getting at. I don't know why so called "sharp" bettors back a certain team, but if they're doing it because the other side looks "obvious" then I'd question their status as "sharp" bettors.
I do know there was a lot of money on the Chiefs on Monday. Maybe it was a big syndicate move, or maybe just some whale looked at the stat regarding teams that had played the Seahawks the week before and decided the Packers were vulnerable. I've got no idea.
I moved on the Packers when the line dropped to -5' just because it looked a great number, and others probably did too.
Maybe books do shorten a team to fool the public into betting that side. I hear that a lot on here. But I think whoever puts money down just because they see a line dropping is going to be a losing bettor over time.