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Play By Play Picks: (Underdogs with expected advantages in key stats)
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Kansas City +7 (Best Bet) over GREEN BAY
San Francisco +7 over ARIZONA
Jacksonville +13.5 over NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo +3 over MIAMI
Tennessee +3.5 looks very good but 0-2 Indy is in a desparate spot so I am not playing it.
Redskins +4 also look live, but same thing 0-2 Giants, short week and on the road so nixing this one as well.
Please read below to find out how all this works....
This analysis is from evaluating the results of each NFL game on a play by play level. I download every play into a database then I run a computer program that analyzes what happened on the play. I create ratings for both offense and defense for the following:
- Running
- Passing
- Overall (Running and Passing combined)
- Big Plays
- Red Zone
I then adjust all the statistics based on the quality of the opponent.
What you see below are the fruits of my labor. I hope that by looking deep within the game, we may be able to uncover some good analysis for wagering.
Overall - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective
Run - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for runs only
Pass - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for pass only
Big Play - This is how well a team effectively creates big plays (10+ running 20+ passing) on offense AND stops big plays on defense
RedZone - This is how EFFICIENT the team is in the red zone on offense AND how adept they are in the red zone on defense.
With only two weeks of data, we don't know much, in theory we should get better as the year goes on.
Play By Play Analysis For Week 2
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone NYG 200 110 90 7 -1.16 WAS 214 104 110 -6 0.75 Advantage WAS - 14 NYG - 6 WAS - 20 NYG - 13 WAS - 1.91
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone NYJ 192 90 102 2 2.16 PHI 173 73 100 -7 1.24 Advantage NYJ - 19 NYJ - 17 NYJ - 2 NYJ - 9 NYJ - 0.92
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone HOU 198 97 101 -12 -0.57 TB 181 101 80 -14 -1.06 Advantage HOU - 17 TB - 4 HOU - 21 HOU - 2 HOU - 0.49
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone CAR 192 92 100 2 -0.24 NO 203 105 98 -12 -2.02 Advantage NO - 11 NO - 13 CAR - 2 CAR - 14 CAR - 1.79
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone PIT 191 90 101 12 0.88 STL 197 103 94 10 0.70 Advantage STL - 6 STL - 13 PIT - 7 PIT - 2 PIT - 0.18
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone MIN 196 104 92 1 -0.09 SD 194 88 106 -8 -0.86 Advantage MIN - 2 MIN - 16 SD - 14 MIN - 9 MIN - 0.77
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone ATL 200 100 100 -5 0.07 DAL 210 103 107 5 -0.17 Advantage DAL - 10 DAL - 3 DAL - 7 DAL - 10 ATL - 0.24
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone IND 196 104 92 -8 -1.81 TEN 210 102 108 7 0.66 Advantage TEN - 14 IND - 2 TEN - 16 TEN - 15 TEN - 2.46
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone CLE 200 98 102 1 -0.80 OAK 200 104 96 -15 1.99 Advantage OAK - 0 OAK - 6 CLE - 6 CLE - 16 OAK - 2.79
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone NE 192 82 110 -7 0.05 JAX 199 108 91 15 -0.08 Advantage JAX - 7 JAX - 26 NE - 19 JAX - 22 NE - 0.13
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone BAL 194 100 94 8 -2.15 CIN 194 96 98 11 -2.83 Advantage CIN - 0 BAL - 4 CIN - 4 CIN - 3 BAL - 0.68
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone ARZ 208 102 106 7 3.45 SF 224 120 104 5 -1.34 Advantage SF - 16 SF - 18 ARZ - 2 ARZ - 2 ARZ - 4.79
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone SEA 203 105 98 2 -1.12 CHI 184 98 86 -2 -2.83 Advantage SEA - 19 SEA - 7 SEA - 12 SEA - 4 SEA - 1.70
Team Overall Run Pass Big Play Red Zone MIA 200 96 104 0 0.12 BUF 212 110 102 10 1.35 Advantage BUF - 12 BUF - 14 MIA - 2 BUF - 10 BUF - 1.22
Best of luck!