I've never bet NFL before (only casually I guess here and there) because lines are so sharp in this league, but I had nothing else to do for a while so made a model that I want to test and adjust for the next 3 years. Don't expect to beat NFL because lol at everyone else if they've been trying their whole lives to develop workings predictive models for the NFL and failing and this crude piece of garbage works. I will give credit to the human race and expect it to not be that simple. I can already see some flaws in it but don't know how/what to adjust it, so only way to learn that is by testing it for a good sample size (I chose 3 years as a random number, who knows how long it will take; if I even decide to learn about the NFL at all in the meantime as well will be a factor)
Looking for a 4+ perceived edge for a 1 unit bet and a 7.5+ for 2 units. Key numbers blah blah blah. Here's week 1 results:
Again, I don't know shit about the NFL except that athletic black people run around and gamblers lose a lot of money to watch them do it.
GB
62.9
56.36
35.42226
27.47774
65.8
72.68647752
815.7746478
961.7209
29.41465859
30.83637
30.86494
1
0.94
30.86494
27.38695
25.15493
O/U
Offered
Value
CHI
62.8
64.68
40.65138
22.14862
61.7
93.41687124
877.8665511
775.2017
27.81027265
29.10809
29.13506
0.66
0.63
19.22914
19.44491
23.30805
48.46297
49
0.537
62.85
59.94445
Spread
-1.15312
6.5
7.653
KC
60.1
56.34
35.63505
24.46495
60.4
84.6688788
753.324957
856.27325
28.1908001
28.23778
27.96807
0.74
0.69
20.69637
22.10203
20.13701
O/U
Offered
Value
HOU
66.4
48.07
30.40428
35.99573
56.5
79.35515775
601.2445381
1259.850375
29.22364565
32.34083
32.03193
0.75
0.7
24.02395
19.57765
23.06299
43.2
40
3.200
63.25
60.57862
Spread
-5.92598
0
5.926
CLE
63.1
52.87
34.07472
29.02529
58.8
84.23269548
701.2576347
1015.884975
28.54794461
30.02292
29.06249
0.66
0.55
19.18124
17.01563
18.30937
O/U
Offered
Value
NYJ
65.8
51.81
33.39155
32.40846
60.2
79.73900946
703.5598532
1134.295925
29.14277793
31.95991
30.93751
0.57
0.6
17.63438
17.43749
17.32501
35.63437
39.5
3.866
64.45
61.98283
Spread
-2.01564
-3.5
1.484
IND
68.3
62.48
41.26804
27.03196
58.6
102.5098114
846.4075004
946.1186
27.74576738
31.58393
31.60452
0.9
0.99
28.44407
28.11153
24.33548
O/U
Offered
Value
BUF
63.8
60.59
40.0197
23.78031
54.3
109.7340037
760.5743035
832.310675
26.6868179
28.37698
28.39548
0.72
0.64
20.44475
20.22689
24.27814
48.61362
45
3.614
66.05
59.96091
Spread
-2.94266
2.5
5.443
MIA
65
61.63
39.41239
25.58762
61.9
90.09671211
853.869321
895.566525
28.30050089
30.65888
30.79791
0.81
0.76
24.9463
22.19359
22.32848
O/U
Offered
Value
WSH
62.9
60.14
38.45953
24.44047
59
94.6104438
794.1892945
855.41645
27.7299871
29.07027
29.20209
0.61
0.64
17.81328
19.71066
20.00344
42.33192
43
0.668
63.95
59.72915
Spread
-0.67495
3
3.675
CAR
66.9
54.69
35.19302
31.70699
59.5
85.51902645
732.8945374
1109.744475
28.82149535
32.13597
32.09922
0.66
0.69
21.18549
19.25154
17.49408
O/U
Offered
Value
JAX
61.8
63.5
40.86225
20.93775
58.9
100.7663085
842.3752838
732.82125
27.11913984
27.93271
27.90078
0.57
0.43
15.90344
13.80267
17.57749
35.07157
40.5
5.428
64.35
60.06868
Spread
-3.08341
3
6.083
SEA
63.5
48.56
29.93724
33.56276
63.4
65.74217904
664.3073556
1174.6966
29.99600212
31.74577
31.79395
0.76
0.83
24.1634
23.41102
21.30195
O/U
Offered
Value
STL
59.8
58.73
36.20705
23.59296
61.6
83.42103168
780.6238902
825.753425
28.25749744
28.16331
28.20605
0.69
0.58
19.46217
18.44049
21.4366
42.73854
40.5
2.239
61.65
59.90907
Spread
-3.13465
4
7.135
NO
68.4
62.92
40.77216
27.62784
66.2
82.68594048
944.6909472
966.9744
29.15718257
33.23919
32.23639
0.82
0.82
26.43384
22.76616
22.40429
O/U
Offered
Value
ARI
61.2
60.38
39.12624
22.07376
62.6
87.79928256
857.2559184
772.5816
28.0659608
28.62728
27.76361
0.65
0.57
18.04635
18.37474
20.40626
42.81054
48.5
5.689
64.8
61.86647
Spread
-1.00197
-2.5
1.498
DET
65.4
62.41
40.09843
25.30158
59.6
97.1985822
836.4531455
885.555125
27.81661854
30.32011
30.07461
0.63
0.67
18.94701
20.05001
19.84924
O/U
Offered
Value
SD
63.1
60.56
38.9098
24.1902
64.7
82.4109564
881.112421
846.657
28.68748617
30.16967
29.92539
0.7
0.69
20.94777
20.75148
20.49889
40.34813
45.5
5.152
64.25
60.48979
Spread
-3.64965
-3
0.650
CIN
63.4
52.41
32.88728
30.51273
61.6
75.7722816
709.049649
1067.945375
29.22345908
30.87946
31.5609
0.75
0.72
23.67067
20.47615
19.25215
O/U
Offered
Value
OAK
62.1
66.1
41.47775
20.62225
58.1
104.2750635
843.4500463
721.77875
26.88412012
27.82506
28.4391
0.56
0.47
15.9259
14.83362
18.20103
37.45317
43.5
6.047
62.75
58.70452
Spread
-1.94888
3
4.949
BAL
63.9
56.43
36.87701
27.023
60.5
87.39850185
780.8705809
945.804825
28.38926303
30.23457
28.90998
0.86
0.8
24.86258
24.87201
26.45263
O/U
Offered
Value
DEN
66.8
59.21
38.69374
28.10627
65.5
80.09603145
887.0538749
983.719275
29.20462846
32.51449
31.09002
0.98
0.97
30.46822
28.04268
27.67012
54.12275
48
6.123
65.35
62.74905
Spread
-4.21748
-4.5
0.283
NYG
67.9
58.66
38.21699
29.68301
59
94.0137954
789.1808435
1038.90535
28.30780543
32.035
30.55005
0.77
0.8
23.52354
23.55996
27.03679
O/U
Offered
Value
DAL
62.4
50.36
32.80954
29.59046
65.2
68.50631952
748.7137028
1035.6661
29.69368786
30.88144
29.44995
0.89
1
26.21046
30.55005
24.88521
51.922
51.5
0.422
65.15
62.91644
Spread
-0.84842
-6
5.152
With my buffer zone, the bets are
CHI +6.5 2u
HOU pk 1u
BUF +2.5 1u
CAR/JAX Under 40.5 1u
JAX +3 1u
STL +4 1u
NO/ARI Under 48.5 1u
DET/SD Under 45.5 1u
CIN/OAK Under 43.5 1u
OAK +3
BAL/DEN Over 48 1u
NYG +6 1u
I'm not even betting these myself since its way too many, although I agree with some of the underrated home dogs picked. Particularly STL, BUF, and OAK. Hate unders in week 1, since all the defenses suck, but it is what it is. Also hate the BAL/DEN Over since Peyton can't throw a football anymore and the coaches have emphasized POUND THE ROCK but whatever, we'll see. Thanks for reading my thread; if you don't like it no one really cares. Enjoy your weekend guys.