1. #1
    on3
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    2015 NFL System - JM + Modified

    just wanted to get an early thread going for the season. last year we finished at:

    final tally:

    system record: 14-0
    mod system record: 10-0
    units: +14
    mod units: +10

    TOTAL UNITS: +24



    the system kicks in week 4 at the earliest. rules are simple: if a team loses SU AND ATS 3 straight weeks, they become a play. we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. official rules state that favorites be played on the ML and dogs be bought to key numbers (3, 7, 10, 14).

    MODIFIED rules: if teams with a .500 or better record (AFTER they qualify) lose SU AND ATS 2 straight weeks, they become a play.
    we chase them for the next three games on a simple martingale chase. i play short faves on the ML and dogs i buy up to 1.5 points.


    i will not be tracking the middle strategy, but it's fun to play and has been profitable the last 3 years i have played it. it can be played from week 1. i have also been dabbling in the middle strategy during preseason and so far it has been profitable. middle strategy is simple:

    if the posted spread or total can be middled at halftime by 10 or more points, fade the middle.

    example for the middle system:

    week 1: GB @ SEA, o/u 44.5, SEA -5.5
    hypothetical halftime score: GB 20 SEA 14
    hypothetical 2h line: o/u 21.5, SEA -1

    this brings the full game's new line to: o/u 55.5, GB -5
    total calc: 55.5 - 44.5 = 11 point middle
    spread calc: +5.5 + 5 = 10.5 middle
    bets would be: play OVER 21.5 and GB +1 -- you are betting that the game will not be middled

  2. #2
    MikeyFingers
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    why wasn't Tennessee a loss last year?

    Date Vs Score Week TEN Line
    Sunday 12/28/14 Indianapolis L 10-27 Week 17 L 7.5
    Thursday 12/18/14 @ Jacksonville L 13-21 Week 16 L 4
    Sunday 12/14/14 N.Y. Jets L 11-16 Week 15 L 3.5
    Sunday 12/07/14 N.Y. Giants L 7-36 Week 14 L 3
    Sunday 11/30/14 @ Houston L 21-45 Week 13 L 7
    Sunday 11/23/14 @ Philadelphia L 24-43 Week 12 L 11

  3. #3
    imotiv8
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    Check in

  4. #4
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by MikeyFingers View Post
    why wasn't Tennessee a loss last year?

    Date Vs Score Week TEN Line
    Sunday 12/28/14 Indianapolis L 10-27 Week 17 L 7.5
    Thursday 12/18/14 @ Jacksonville L 13-21 Week 16 L 4
    Sunday 12/14/14 N.Y. Jets L 11-16 Week 15 L 3.5
    Sunday 12/07/14 N.Y. Giants L 7-36 Week 14 L 3
    Sunday 11/30/14 @ Houston L 21-45 Week 13 L 7
    Sunday 11/23/14 @ Philadelphia L 24-43 Week 12 L 11
    there is one more rule that i didnt mention and that is once a team is eliminated from any playoff contention they are no longer eligible. i believe that is what happened with tenn.

    looking back on the thread i see an error on post #77 for week 15. week 15 is the last week a series can start so there shouldnt have been any potential week 16 or week 17 plays. the last time the titans covered was week 11 and they should have been excluded from any future posts.

  5. #5
    MikeyFingers
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    ok thanks for clearing that up, much appreciated.

  6. #6
    hagball52
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    On3 we've got the "Chumps" Annihilator system posted in the MLB thread. It's very similar to his Invincible system that you run. Didn't know if you want to incorporate that into this thread or not.

  7. #7
    adila1401
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    Looking forward to it..best of luck!

  8. #8
    imotiv8
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    Here's the College Football Thread from 2010 , as you'll see it went well till the end of the season. I would say its only good half maybe 3/4 the season. If yal want we can pick it back up again on this same thread i think or i can start a new one

    JM-like COLLEGE SYSTEM

  9. #9
    bisturis
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    The first play starts tomorrow right?

  10. #10
    reddevils64
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    "NFL Betting System That Has Never Lost In The Entire History of Pro Football.

    3 Game Series

    We are playing against last years Super Bowl Winner.

    Our bet is Pittsburgh Steelers +7
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  11. #11
    Brundle99
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    Does anyone flat bet the JM Systems?, labby's and martingale strategies can cost you way too much on a bad streak.if your hitting above 55% wins then you'll always show a profit right?.

  12. #12
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brundle99 View Post
    Does anyone flat bet the JM Systems?, labby's and martingale strategies can cost you way too much on a bad streak.if your hitting above 55% wins then you'll always show a profit right?.
    you only need to be hitting 42ish% overall to profit on a labby.
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  13. #13
    Brundle99
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    Thanks On3

  14. #14
    on3
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    only one team lost AND covered the spread last week -- ny giants (pitt pushed)

    system record: 0-0
    mod system record: 0-0
    units: +0

    week 4 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

    chicago
    houston
    cleveland
    indianapolis
    washington
    jax
    seattle
    new orleans
    detroit
    tampa bay
    oakland
    baltimore

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  15. #15
    on3
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    ATL +6 fits middling strategy if anyone wants to play along
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  16. #16
    on3
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    system record: 0-0
    mod system record: 0-0
    units: +0

    week 4 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

    chicago
    houston
    indianapolis (pend)
    seattle
    new orleans
    detroit
    tampa bay
    baltimore
    philly

    week 5 potential plays
    (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

    kansas city
    san fran
    buffalo
    san diego
    tenn
    ny giants
    st louis
    miami
    Points Awarded:

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  17. #17
    JakeRyan
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    on3 TB covered and won outright.

  18. #18
    hagball52
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    Is New England a (C) bet in the "Never Lost NFL" system this weekend?

  19. #19
    on3
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    looks like there are plenty of teams pending for week 4. it is very unlikely that we see 6+ plays for week 1 and will probably only see 2 or 3. i am unofficially starting a chase on seattle, indy, and philly 1 week early since i think all teams cover and win this coming weekend.


    system record: 0-0
    mod system record: 0-0
    units: +0

    week 4 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

    chicago
    houston
    indianapolis
    seattle
    new orleans
    detroit
    baltimore
    philly

    week 5 potential plays
    (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

    kansas city
    san fran
    buffalo
    san diego
    tenn
    ny giants
    st louis
    miami
    Points Awarded:

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  20. #20
    pinchegringo
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    You wouldnt know the win loss with out the chase would you?

  21. #21
    SprtsCapnGuru
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    Quote Originally Posted by hagball52 View Post
    Is New England a (C) bet in the "Never Lost NFL" system this weekend?
    I was wondering the same thing. I got an email from JM, because I have his MLB system, and he wants me to buy his"Never Lost NFL System". The email says there is a bet today, but he wants me to buy it to find out what it is.

  22. #22
    Kaizen
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    Quote Originally Posted by SprtsCapnGuru View Post
    I was wondering the same thing. I got an email from JM, because I have his MLB system, and he wants me to buy his"Never Lost NFL System". The email says there is a bet today, but he wants me to buy it to find out what it is.
    It is not C bet, You need to buy 0,5 points on JM's NFL system before bet, so the spread was -7/+7 on NE-PIT game.PIT +7,5 was bet.
    and it hit.

  23. #23
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    You wouldnt know the win loss with out the chase would you?
    What do you mean?

  24. #24
    nspa87
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  25. #25
    The J-Dizzle
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    I think he wants to know the stats if he should flat bet your plays. But that's not how the system works.

  26. #26
    pinchegringo
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    Quote Originally Posted by The J-Dizzle View Post
    I think he wants to know the stats if he should flat bet your plays.
    This.

  27. #27
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    This.
    No flat betting with this system. We are playing a chase system. You can either do a martingale money management system or a labby money management system. I will be doing a labby system in this thread.

  28. #28
    on3
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    system record: 0-0
    mod system record: 0-0
    units: +0

    labby line (.5 = half unit)
    .5-.5-.5-.5-.5-.5

    week 4 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

    (A) Chicago +3 (-130) to win 1 unit
    (A) Detroit +10 (125) to win 1 unit
    (A) Baltimore PK (-130) to win 1 unit

    week 5 potential plays
    (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

    kansas city (pend)
    san fran
    san diego
    st louis
    miami

    week 5 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

    wash
    dallas
    cleveland
    j'ville
    ny jets
    tampa bay
    Points Awarded:

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  29. #29
    on3
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    hmm, no excitement here yet...

  30. #30
    pinchegringo
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    I am still sad about the records and deciding if I want to run this system or not...

    labby looks interesting.

  31. #31
    bravoman81
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    I am still sad about the records and deciding if I want to run this system or not...

    labby looks interesting.
    The record doesn't look bad. Am i missing something here?

  32. #32
    nspa87
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    I'm on all 3- BOL

    Remember to account for the chase on your bet amounts and if all three miss your action next week will be 3x as costly to cover depending on system you run

  33. #33
    on3
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinchegringo View Post
    I am still sad about the records and deciding if I want to run this system or not...

    labby looks interesting.
    was 24-0 last season not good enough? whatever you choose, best of luck.

  34. #34
    pinchegringo
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    Quote Originally Posted by on3 View Post
    was 24-0 last season not good enough? whatever you choose, best of luck.
    obviously that is a amazing, I just dont like chase systems.

    carry on.

  35. #35
    msetai
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    Hey on3 I have lions at 9.5 so do I buy it to 10 which is -120

    Bears -115

    But Ravens to PK from -2.5 it's -165

    Not sure what to do here...thanks!
    Last edited by msetai; 09-29-15 at 11:27 PM.

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