Tennessee proved to be my worst bet of the season so far, in terms of the number of points I was on the wrong end of the game. Shit happens! So does sheer brilliance (ahem) in the shape of these surefire shots....
Houston @ Miami
I find it hard to fancy Houston on the road at the tail-end of another disappoiting season. The worry in supporting Miami is that despite a very good defensive passer rating, they give up a very high yards-per-attempt of more than 8 yards a throw. They could dominate this game and still lose to a few big plays, stirring bad memories of that infamous loss to the Colts earlier this season. However, they do get pressure on the passer and achieve sacks so there could be big plays on both sides of the Texans passing game. Mystic Limey forsees: Houston 17 - Miami 24 Dolphins ML at 1.66 for 6 units
Carolina @ NY Giants
I can't see either team obliterating this line, so it's no bet for me on the sides. I think, though, that the Panthers might force some Eli errors and chew up the clock quite effectively so I'll take the 'under', with the added encouragement that the Giants are currently 'over' the total for the season by a total that's outside the norms and due a correction. Mystic Limey forsees: Carolina 10 - 20 NYG Under 42.5 for 6 units
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
I can't figure the Ravens out. I do recall that they contrived to barely beat the Big-Ben-bereft Steelers a few short weeks ago in overtime. Roethlisberger is back in the cockpit now, of course. Ultimately, I take home advantage to be decisive here. I fancy that Pittsburgh will have some help from the officials, only exacerbated by Baltimore's propensity for dumb penatlies and all-round bad luck. Mystic Limey forsees: Baltimore 17 - 27 Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 for 6 units at juicy 2.02 odds
Denver @ Philadelphia
It's not exactly a lovely travel spot for Denver, and a game that both teams desperately need to win. Still, my closely guarded stats say the the Eagles are a little over-rated on offense. I think that a well-coached, mistake-avoiding Broncos outfit could possibly sneak a win here against the hot/cold, occasional-brainfarting hosts, thus seven points makes this a must-bet. Mystic Limey forsees: Denver 24 - 23 Philadelphia Broncos +7 for 6 units
Hey Limey, here's some feedback/thoughts on your picks:
Denver +7 - Like the pick I think Denver can win outright v. Philly. Non-division game and the Eagles might be looking ahead towards revenge game vs. Dallas next week.
Panthers/Giants OVER 42.5 - Not entirely sold here. One large factor is that the Panthers yardage numbers to date have been largely skewed by Jake D. in the cockpit. Now with QB switch + D. Williams back at RB I expect a more high-powered offense on their part. And we know the Giants are not a defensive monster this season.
Steelers v. Ravens - I can see this game going close. Granted the Ravens beat Pitt a few weeks back when Big Ben was out, but the backup QB also did a fine job that game, so I give Baltimore more credit during that game. Tricky game but I lean Pitt right now - I need to do more research though.
Houston + 2.5 at Miami - Again need to do a little more research but I do know both teams are in the playoff hunt, and in previous seasons Houston has edged out Miami in contests. Miami also has trouble blowing out teams - many of their wins this season have been nail-biters. If anything right now its a no-play for me but we'll see.
Two picks I'm likely to play today and just wanted to pass along/see your thoughts:
1. Jags +8.5 at Pats - Pats have had trouble blowing out teams this season and Jags are in playoff hunt. Also, 2 of the Jags losses have come from the Colts, in games decided by less than 5 points if I'm correct. I see Jags covering here and controlling the ball more on the ground.
2. Redskins v. Cowboys - I see skins bouncing back after last week's blowout loss to the Giants. Aside from last week, the Redskins have been playing VERY close game in the last 5 straight contests, including 2 outright wins. Cowboys might be looking to the Eagles the following week, and I expect them to come down from the big win vs. New Orleans last week.