Originally Posted by
bucket2233
You think the line is low? Maybe I'm crazy, but I am trying to figure out how the Falcons are not favored in this game. IMHO, this game should be Falcons -3 with Julio, and Falcons -2 or -2.5 without him. They're essentially saying that the Steelers would be 9-10 point favorites at home, and that makes no sense to me. Remember that the line was Steelers -4 vs. Saints in Pittsburgh, so does anyone really think that New Orleans is 5-6 points better than Atlanta? I sure don't.
I don't understand how the Steelers can be laying ANY points here. There are only a handful of teams that the Steelers should be favored against on the road - Jax, TB, Tenn and then barely favored against Oak, NYJ, and Wash, IMO. The Falcons aren't good, but they certainly are not a bottom 5 team in this league, and arguably not even in the bottom 10 (I have them ranked 20th out of 30 teams). Also, this is the same Steelers team that got beat by Tampa, got blown out by New Orleans at home (game was much more lopsided than the score due to garbage time scores), got blown out by the NYJ on the road, and played the Jags to the last possession in Jacksonville. Only 3 of their wins are convincing. On the other hand, Atlanta should be 7-6 (loss due to a delay of game in London vs. Det, and loss due to poor clock management vs. Cle at home). Yes, they still count as losses, but I just think these teams are much closer than their records indicate.
Obviously anything can happen, but I just don't see how this line makes any sense. One more note: Matt Ryan has been great at home (39-13 SU, 29-20-3 ATS) in his career. I think Falcons are a great play here.