Been lurking a bit too much this season doing my own thing without posting, but wanted to share my thoughts. It also forces me to do a little homework.
Always welcome thoughts on picks whether you agree or disagree; many times this brings out important information as to selected picks, so here's a couple mid-week thoughts. I'll update and finalize some of them tomorrow as I'll be playing the Cincy/Cleveland game as one of the selections.
No particular order but I'll add a Star *** system below in terms of ranking some favorites. So here goes...
1. Cincy -6.5 vs Cleveland ***
- Just the better team, Cincy is likely to give a heavy dose of run-offense vs. the Browns who have an over-rated record given who they have played so far. Also I really do think the Bengals are going to play their hearts out; for those who havent followed lately they have a great feel-good story about Devon Still's young daughter, who has a 50/50% of survival (based on the type of cancer). Cincy has sold 15,000 of Stills' Jerseys and over $1,000,000 in support of charity and for the first time she is well enough to come out to the game tomorrow and watch her father play, which Stills has already said is the biggest game of his life for that reason alone. The crowd support will be through the roof, and I expect tho whole team to play lights out with this extra motivation.
I normally don't attribute a lot to the old argument "this team wants it more" but this one is a clear exception.
2. Steelers @ Jets -6 ***
- Big Ben playing lights out and his offensive weapons have been phenomenal. Clicking on all cylinders offensively, they flat out DOMINATED 2 good teams in the Ravens and Colts (6-1 in their last 7 games). Tomlin noted they are not overlooking the Jets at all, and the Steelers players overall stated that the Jets are very underrated team as compared to their record. I will say this - the Jets bring a lot to the table; picking up Harvin for offense, as well as their front 7 which is very stout. The Jets WEAKNESS, however, is the passing game. I expect the Steelers to go pretty heavy in the passing again again, and clear the handicap easily, however.
3. Denver @ Oakland -11 ***
- Denver will bounce back and what better team than the 0-8 Raiders. Oakland ranks DEAD-LAST in total YPG and rushing YPG, and rank 31st in total PPG. No chance they can keep up with the Broncos. Also keep in mind, this is a teaser, so you will effectively only need Denver to win by 6 which will happen easily. Manning will go for 3+ TDs easy.
4. Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -1.5 **
- Coming off a bye week facing a team that gives up 399+ total YPG (and giving up the most PPG in the league). Falcons are hardly a good team this season, but they have enough to dominate the Bucs, plus they match up well vs. this team. They also should've picked up a big win vs. Detroit in week 8 but completely choked in the end to pick up yet another loss. Also Recall week 3 matchup vs Tampa Bay where the Falcons CRUSHED the Bucs 56-14. Both these teams are statistically horrendous on defense; I am still deciding on the over/under here which currently sits ~45 total. KEY NOTE: In teasing the Falcons we are committing the "cardinal sin" of teasing through the zero, which is normally a big no-no. Here, however, it's all but certain that Falcons will take away a win on Sunday. Or worst case, lose in a heartbreaker but the +6 points will nicely cushion in case of disaster.
5. Arizona/St Louis Under 43.5 **
- 2 VERY stout defenses it's going to be a grinding division game and St Louis matches up well vs the Cardinals. I like this pick though generally I am not as much a fan of teasing totals, as I find it more valuable teasing the spread (exceptions exist of course, such as here). AZ ranks 5th in points allowed, 3rd in Rushing yards allowed. They also rank 32nd in passing yards allowed but in some cases opposing teams were forced to throw to catch up. They also ran into top passing teams such as Philly, Denver and Dallas to name a few. Rams by comparison rank 8th in passing yards allowed but near worst in total points/rushing yards allowed (27th and 29th respectively). They have also hit some respectable teams including the 49ers (twice), Seahawks, Cowboys, Chiefs and Eagles so part of the skew is because of the quality teams they face. Expect a grind on both ends of the ball as neither team is known for blowout-scoring.
6. Arizona -7 vs St Louis **
- Hosting the Rams and AZ is ranking #1 for the 1st time this year in power rankings with a league-best 7-1 record (only loss was in Denver). They have played very well vs many good teams already this season and they absolutely need to win vs the Rams because this may well be the "easiest" game in their extremely difficult 2nd-half schedule which still includes Seattle (twice), Detroit, Kansas City and San Francisco. Brian Billick also believes this is the first year where a team truly "hosts" the Super Bowl (being AZ).
7. Chicago @ Green Bay -7GB **
- Cutler has been horrendous in his 3 games played in Green Bay, offhand I believe it's 2TDs to 10 interceptions (he threw 5 interceptions his 1st time there). History likely to repeat itself as Chicago is spiraling out of control and Green Bay will be fresh off a bye week. Both sides of the ball I expect the Bears will be dominated, and Rogers will pick apart the Bears defense through the air. I will note that the packers have not impressed me this year, but this is a juicy matchup for them to right the ship.
8. Kansas City -2 @ Buffalo */**
- Chiefs have played many top teams already and pulled out some impressive wins. They only have 3 losses this season: (1) at denver (lost by 7); (2) at 49ers (lost by 5); and (3) vs Titans (this was 1st game and more a WTF moment). They've picked up wins against the Dolphins by 19, Patriots by 27, Rams by 27 as well as wins over Chargers (by 3 in SD) and Jets (by 14). The Chiefs are just a fantastic team to ride on this season. We tease thru the zero, which again is not normally recommended, but the game should be a slam dunk vs a sometimes struggling Bills offense (ranks top 3rd across the board). Recall that the Chiefs rank 2nd in total PPG allowed, 1st in Passing yards allowed and 5th in total YPG allowed. Expect Buffalo to struggle at home, and teasing to +4 is actually a beautiful number to sit on.
Looks like bad start to the week. I'm already about to throw in the towel on Cincy. Mainly Cleveland is playing very well, excellent defense and they are moving the ball better. They were not expected to be able to run the ball as well as they have been tonight. Dalton also looks pretty terribad. Might make a 2nd half play depending on how game goes.
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