[mikeya2k]

At each point in the last 3 season I have been up over 20 units ($50) at some point during the season. All of those seasons I have ended up losing money by the end of the Super Bowl.

Now I am going to see if I can stop this trend and end in the green.

I have been betting brutally agressive and have been hitting at a high clip and sit at $2088 in NFL betting.

I am going to buckle down and bet more conservatively and make less plays, and go for more quality plays. At this point in the season I feel like I have a great feel for the NFL.

Heres to success for us ALL from week 7 through the Super Bowl!!!

[Springhettios]

[mikeya2k]

NFL WEEK 7-

Teasers (0-0) (+0u) (+$0)

PACKERS -1 / PATRIOTS -4 ($110 to win $100) (2.2u to win 2u)

PACKERS -1 / BROWNS +1 ($55 to win $50) (1.1u to win 1u)

PACKERS -1 / COWBOYS +0.5 ($83 to win $75) (1.6u to win 1.5u)

PACKERS -1 / SEAHAWKS -1 ($220 to win $200) (4.4u to win 4u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / BROWNS +0.5 ($28 to win $25) (0.6u to win 0.5u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / COWBOYS +0.5 ($110 to win $100)(2.2u to win 2u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / PATRIOTS -4 ($55 to win $50) (1.1u to win 1u)

PATRIOTS -1 / OVER 40 SAINTS, DET / OVER 40 CAR, GBAY / OVER 40 CHI, MIA ($55 to win $50) (1.1u to win 1u)

PATRIOTS -1/ OVER 40 SAINTS,DET / OVER 40 CHI, MIA ($28 to win $25) (0.6u to win 0.5u)

PATRIOTS -1 / OVER 40 CHI, MIA / OVER 40 GBAY, CAR ($28 to win $25) (0.6u to win 0.5u)

Analysis-

I am locking up these teasers early in the week, and they will most likely be the only teasers that I play for the week. I locked them up early because I do not see any of these numbers moving greatly in my favor, and would anticipate movement in the opposite direction.

The Patriots will not lose to Jets on this short week. As Thursday night games have shown us, the short week favors the superior team. In this case, the red-hot New England Patriots are home, and playing a team trending down, and may end up at the bottom of my power rankings after week 7. The Patriots and Jets are familar opponents. The Patriots had two big injuries last week. However, this will not affect this matchup. They have plenty of depth at RB and the loss of Mayo will be felt long term. I believe they are a must-play in all teasers this week.

The Packers are back at Lambeau where they dominated an inferior Vikings team the last time they were here. The Packers will have no problem moving up and down the field against a suprisingly weak Panthers defense. Not to mention, the Panthers just played an extra quarter of football. The Packers are one of the hottest offensive teams in the league and after that last drive against Miami, I just love the momentum they are carrying. Too many offensive weapons, and the Panthers have too little offensive weapons. I will most likely be playing the Packers team total as well, as they should have no problem hanging 30+.

The Browns are very hot, but have been shaky on the road. In both games on the road, they have started sluggish and went down ginormous by the half. They know this more than anyone. After a huge win, I think they go on the road and demolish and inferior opponent who cannot stop the run. They should have no problem doing whatever they want to do against the Jags. I also lean over in this game, as I think the Jaguars should be able to score as well. In the end, I do not see the Browns losing in what could be a close game in the second half. The Jaguars have nothing to lose, but don't be quick to forget that the Browns have a lot to gain. If they are really set out to be a different Cleveland Browns team, they cannot lose to the Jaguars after a big divisional win.

Speaking of hot football teams, the Dallas Cowboys are a strong play at home. I wish I had locked this game up at -3 when it had opened. However, the injuries and galloping of the Giants on SNF have moved the line to 5.5.
The Giants were trending up, but I think the Washington Redskins have showed us to forget that Thursday Night Football game where everyone started to drink the Giants kool-aid. Not overthinking this, Dallas is better all around. Eagles absolutely dominated the Giants in a big game, in every facet of football. The G-men looked weak on the line of scrimmage, against a weak offensive line. Now they have to play the Dallas offensive line, which has been the most impressive offensive lines I have seen in a very very long time. Dallas is not the same old Dallas team. They haven't even unleashed Dez Bryant. Now that attention will be stacked in the box, I think the Cowboys have no problem scoring on the Giants. I do believe the Giants will have trouble scoring this week, against a hot dallas defense, and without the WR that makes their clock turn. There offensive line has also looked terrible the last few weeks.

The Seahawks will come out hungry this week. I ensure they will eat. I can write a million reasons, but I will do that when I place my bet on them.
They will eat the Rams, who proved to us all that they are just not a good football team. They are going to shallacked. They threw their back out trying to swing at the 49ers early. Now they play an even hungrier team in the Seahawks. This game will not be close.

As for the TOTALS that I have teased. These games will all be played in the 20s. The Packers, Bears, Lions/Saints should carry the totals. However, no defenses in these games can really be trustworthy to keep a team under a few scores.

In depth-Write-ups and advanced stats will be written when I have more time.

[mikeya2k]

NFL WEEK 7-

Parlays (0-0)(+0u)(+0$)

PACKERS ML/ PATRIOTS ML/ SEAHAWKS ML ($300 TO WIN $300) (5u to win 5u)


Square parlays are not a winning formula, just like square teasers are not. However, I do not see any of these 3 teams losing. I am impressed at the even odds payout. I will most likely increase this bet before thursday night. However, I may let it play out as I have all of these teams ML in all of the above teasers.

Yes, it is not a winning formula long term, However, when value like this comes up, I do not think you can pass it up.

[mikeya2k]

NFL WEEK 7-

Sides (0-0) (+0u) (+$0)

Chicago Bears -3 ($275 to win $250)(5.5u to win 5u)
Detroit Lions -3 ($175 to win $175) (3.5u to win 3.5u)
Arizona Cardinals -3 ($250 to win $225) (5u to win 4.5u)
Seahawks -7 ($50 to win $50) (1u to win 1u)
Packers -7 ($50 to win $50)(1u to win 1u)
Cowboys -5.5 ($55 to win $50 (1.1u to win 1u)

Totals (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)

Saints/Lions over 48.5 ($100 to win $100)

I very rarely make Total plays, as I would just rather make Team Total plays.

I will have writeup's on these games sooner or later. Just locking up these plays now.

[mikeya2k]

NFL WEEK 7-

Sides (0-0) (+0u) (+$0)

Chicago Bears -3 ($275 to win $250)(5.5u to win 5u)
Detroit Lions -3 ($175 to win $175) (3.5u to win 3.5u)
Arizona Cardinals -3 ($350 to win $300) (6.5u to win 6u)
Seahawks -7 ($50 to win $50) (1u to win 1u)
Packers -7 ($50 to win $50)(1u to win 1u)
Cowboys -5.5 ($55 to win $50 (1.1u to win 1u)

Totals (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)

Saints/Lions over 48.5 ($100 to win $100)

I very rarely make Total plays, as I would just rather make Team Total plays.

I will have writeup's on these games sooner or later. Just locking up these plays now.

Adding to the Cardinal's play.

How does this defense not hound Carr and force mistakes, against a team that has no run game?

[mikeya2k]

Oakland blew their load last week against a division rival at home , and came up short. I don't think they have a shot in this game.

[JJJ]

all favorites no underdogs looks good on paper but this time of year dogs will come barking

[mikeya2k]

Typically yes. Dont see many dogs winnings SU this week though

[JJJ]

when it looks too good it usually is....when it looks like it wont happen it usually does... betting chalk in NFL usually ends up bad somewhere

[mikeya2k]

This is a new NFL

[mikeya2k]

when it looks too good it usually is....when it looks like it wont happen it usually does... betting chalk in NFL usually ends up bad somewhere

I agree. Totally. Not making a habit of it. I just dont see these teams losing. The odds are even for a reason. Its a 50/50 bet......I think it hits this week.

GL my man

[mikeya2k]

NFL WEEK 7- (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)

Sides (0-0) (+0u) (+$0)Chicago Bears -3 (5.5u to win 5u)
Detroit Lions -3 (3.5u to win 3.5u)
Arizona Cardinals -3 (6.5u to win 6u)
Seahawks -7 (1u to win 1u)
Packers -7 (1u to win 1u)
Cowboys -5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
Patriots -9.5 (1.6u to win 1.5u)
Totals (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)Saints/Lions over 48.5 (2.2u to win 2u)

Team Totals (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)

Patriots o27 (2.1u to win 2u)

Props (0-0)(+0u)(+$0)

Geno Smith Under 200.5 passing yards (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Geno Smith under 19 completions (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Jace Amaro under 39.5 rec. yards (0.5u to 0.5u)
Team to score first- Patriots (0.7u to win 0.5u)

Teasers (0-0) (+0u) (+$0)PACKERS -1 / PATRIOTS -4 (2.2u to win 2u)

PACKERS -1 / BROWNS +1 (1.1u to win 1u)

PACKERS -1 / COWBOYS +0.5 (1.6u to win 1.5u)

PACKERS -1 / SEAHAWKS -1 (4.4u to win 4u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / BROWNS +0.5 (0.6u to win 0.5u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / COWBOYS +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)

SEAHAWKS -1 / PATRIOTS -4 (1.1u to win 1u)

PATRIOTS -4 / BROWNS PK (0.6u to win 0.5u)

PATRIOTS -4 / COWBOYS PK (0.6u to win 0.5u)

PATRIOTS -1 / OVER 40 SAINTS, DET / OVER 40 CAR, GBAY / (1.1u to win 1u)

PATRIOTS -1/ OVER 40 SAINTS,DET / OVER 40 CHI, MIA (0.6u to win 0.5u)

PATRIOTS -1 / OVER 40 CHI, MIA / OVER 40 GBAY, CAR (0.6u to win 0.5u)

Parlays (0-0)(+0u)(+0$)

PACKERS ML/ PATRIOTS ML/ SEAHAWKS ML (5u to win 5u)

[mikeya2k]

I'm a Patriots homer, so of course I am going to have some increased action on this game.

Here is what I have locked in for tonight, and I do not anticipate it changing.

Patriots -1 / -4 in teasers
Patriots ML in parlay
Patriots -9.5 for 1 unit
and these props
Geno Smith Under 200.5 passing yards (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Geno Smith under 19 completions (0.5u to win 0.5u)
Jace Amaro under 39.5 rec. yards (0.5u to 0.5u)
Team to score first- Patriots (0.7u to win 0.5u)

Tonight it is rainy in New England, and the Patriots will come out fired up, and I don't see the Jets showing any signs of life tonight. I could post a write up, but I'm talking to myself here. Let's keep winning.

[shookid]

jets season, or whatever is left of it, is on the line tonight plus they normally give the pats fits. its either a blowout or a nail biter.

[MexicanStallion]

I can only imagine the plays you were making if this is less plays and conservative going forward. Good luck tonight and rest of the week.

[mikeya2k]

Impulsive for sure.

Just having fun, leave for deployment next month

[Tommy Karate]

At each point in the last 3 season I have been up over 20 units ($50) at some point during the season. All of those seasons I have ended up losing money by the end of the Super Bowl.

Now I am going to see if I can stop this trend and end in the green.

I have been betting brutally agressive and have been hitting at a high clip and sit at $2088 in NFL betting.

I am going to buckle down and bet more conservatively and make less plays, and go for more quality plays. At this point in the season I feel like I have a great feel for the NFL.

Heres to success for us ALL from week 7 through the Super Bowl!!!

Good luck man....dont chase loses and you should be in the black

[mikeya2k]

thanks tommy i like looking at your plays. good luck

[mikeya2k]

That last 5 minutes was an absolute killer. Hate the Patriots game management late. They are lucky to have won.

[mikeya2k]

I put way to much on the Packers. I went 21-7 on Sunday and got absolutely butt-fukked.

I can't control myself in the NFL, I'm floating around even. Don't know what to do from here, I'm a young cat, wished I controlled myself and coulda kept playing with house money. As you can tell from a few weeks ago above, I just cant control my impulsivity.

[mikeya2k]

Im gonna try and learn from here on out, not make volume players, and not bet too much on a single game