This is a big game for both teams... a battle for first place in the AFC East. But outside of the victory over Cincy last week, the Patriots have looked below average to average more often than not.
The Bills have been stout against the run this year and I don't expect another 100+ yard rushing performance from Ridley like he had last week. This game will fall onto the shoulders of Brady and put his maligned offensive line to the test once again. I think the Bills' D-line presents a mismatch and should be able to cave the pocket and harass Brady quite a bit.
As far the Bills offense goes, I believe Orton provides an opportunity for the talented WR corps to get untracked. He is much more capable in the pocket and provides a steadying, veteran presence. Add a dash of Freddy Jackson and CJ Spiller running against a soft Pats run D, manned in the middle by an eroding Vince Wilfork, and the regular dump passes out of the backfield to move the chains, and you have a prime opportunity here for the Bills to unseat their longtime division nemesis.
One of the most important factors here, of course, is that this game is in Buffalo. The team has a pulse this year and the atmosphere should be electric for this pivotal tilt. The Bills will feed off the energy and Marrone should have a few tricks up his sleeve should he need them.
There's a reason why this game opened at NE -3.5 and has dipped as low as -2.5 at some shops, and it's not because Joe Public loves to fade the Patriots.
I'm forgoing the points altogether and taking the Bills to win outright for plus money.