1. 10-08-14 07:32 PM #1
    DOM_Toretto
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    TNF: Colts @ Texans

    I am a huge Andrew Luck fan, so that makes me kind of a Colts fan. But on a short week, with the travel, this could be one of those games the colts slip up. I'm trying to figure out what the best play is... Texans +3, Texans 1H, or maybe tease Texans +9.5 & o40.5.

    By the numbers...
    Luck has been mediocre against Houston, posting a career avg. 207/2/0, however Wayne has had an decent 6/67/1 avg. line vs HOU since 2010. Meanwhile Arian Foster has an impressive career avg vs Indy of 145/1 (Fanduel start right there).

    One thing I've noticed is that the defenses have really seemed lackluster on these Thursday night games. I know Fitzpatrick is no Peyton Manning but he has been serviceable this season, and as stated above Foster likes this matchup. In general, Houston's D is better than Indys and they don't have to travel.

    Since Indy is usually a 2H team, I think I'll take Houston 1H and maybe that teaser I mentioned.

    Thoughts/feedback??
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  2. 10-08-14 07:38 PM #2
    ItsMeMrMattE
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    HOU and BUF ML +130 are my two home dogs for the week, im so off lately tho.
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  3. 10-08-14 07:44 PM #3
    xraygord
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    I like Houston.
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  4. 10-08-14 08:26 PM #4
    marcoloco
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    ^^
    me too
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  5. 10-08-14 08:28 PM #5
    pavyracer
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    Colts for me. Houston is the punch bag of Indianapolis.
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  6. 10-08-14 08:55 PM #6
    grease lightnin
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Colts for me. Houston is the punch bag of Indianapolis.
    Colts have won last 3 of 4 meetings, but 3 of those were at home. Colts have lost 3 out of last 4 in Houston. I think Luck and the offense are getting better and think the colts are t he better team, but traveling on a short week...divisional game. I'm probably gonna stay away.
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  7. 10-08-14 08:57 PM #7
    pimike
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    This game will be tough spot for the Colts
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  8. 10-08-14 09:04 PM #8
    moses millsap
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    Tease to +10 at least if you're gonna tease
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  9. 10-08-14 09:22 PM #9
    ParlayininHTown
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    I'm torn here. The Colts should win, but I love backing a short home dog in a divisional matchup.
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  10. 10-08-14 10:21 PM #10
    Scottish
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    Rookie head coach on a short week with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the QB, this smells of a 14-21 pt Colts win.

    Natural instinct is always to take the dog at home on a short week but this is a bad situation for Houston especially off of a heartbreaking loss.

    Texans secondary is horrible and can't cover when the play breaks down look for Luck to hit Hilton for big plays in this game when he scrambles and chucks it downfield, i'm expecting TY Hilton to go for about 130 yards and this to get ugly in the second half when Houston are behind and have to start throwing the ball then Pickspatrick is going to start throwing it to the Colts.

    The short week is also more of a disadvantage for Houston because their only current offensive weapon Arian Foster has less time to rest his body which takes a beating every week and he can hardly practice because of it, only a few days rest off of a game where he had 23 carries.

    Give me the Colts something like 27-10.

    Some stats for this game Andrew Luck as a road fav is 5-1-1 ATS, Luck 12-2 vs AFC South including the last 9 in a row.
    Last edited by Scottish; 10-08-14 at 10:34 PM.
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  11. 10-08-14 10:37 PM #11
    Fred The Hammer
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    Colts available for tomorrow that weren't around last year:

    Ahmad Bradshaw - 4 tds
    Dwayne Allen - 4 tds
    Hakeem Nicks
    D'Qwell Jackson - One of the NFLs leading tacklers every year

    Missing : Robert Mathis...which hurts of course but the reason so many teams ran the ball on Indy in the past is because undersized DEs run up the field which open up running lanes. If Hou doesn't run for well over 100 then they lose badly. I'm concerned about Indy's O-line issues but its not like Luck isn't used to it. I think he took the most QB hits in the league in his first 2 years

    Colts 30-20
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  12. 10-09-14 12:31 AM #12
    Arky
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    This is a toughie.... Last few TNF games have been blow-outs. Not sure Indy can do that to Houston in Houston and don't think Houston can run away with it.

    Supposedly, both starting guards are out for the Colts. Not sure that will make much difference in the pass rush as all the Texans have are JJ Watt and a hobbled Cushing - the rest of the front seven = non-playmakers. DC Romeo Crennel may blitz quite a bit anyway.

    Fitz is scrappy but not in the top half of NFL QB's. However, every now and then, he puts a good series together. So it's Luck vs. Fitz..... Who would you pick? :rolleyes:

    This was the Texan home game vs. Colts last year when the Texans had the nice lead and Kubiak had the mini-heart attack at halftime. The whole season kinda went down the tubes after that.

    I'm a Texan/homer/fan, so I'll probably put a small wager on the Texans to win........ Will be mildly surprised if they pull it off, though.
    Last edited by Arky; 10-09-14 at 12:42 AM.
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  13. 10-09-14 12:36 AM #13
    Pete0
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    Nice reasoning OP. and good info in this thread. I will chime in....

    -word around the water cooler is that the Texans are a fraud.
    -it's obvious their secondary Sux which is a huge advantage for the Colts in crunch time if close and especially Houston is up big
    -I think either Colts dominate all the way or the classic 2H comeback so it's hard to bet on. Leaning more on 2H possibility
    -if Colts are down big at HT. then pound luck
    -Live betting option is key this particular TNF

    GL
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  14. 10-09-14 07:29 AM #14
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Tough gm for me as well but leaning Texans. With Colts having several o-linemen down, travel on short wk, and I don't feel quite as confident with Luck on road anyhow he's obviously light out in Indy but not so much on road. Fitz is the wildcard here if they can establish a decent run attack and he does not Fukk up and throw 2/3 picks then Watt and that front 7 should be able to get after Luck enough and maybe even cause a couple turnovers. I know most will be all ov the Colts thinking blowout but I'm pretty convinced it won't be that easy. Texans were an absolute disaster last season and only lost by 3 at home to Indy, and gave the Cowpokes all they could handle last wk in Jerryland. And I know it's Dallas....But they been every bit as good as Colts this season so far if not better!
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  15. 10-09-14 08:37 AM #15
    Enkhbat
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    probably under in this game
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  16. 10-09-14 09:14 AM #16
    BeanTownClown88
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    Colts 24-17
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  17. 10-09-14 10:24 AM #17
    Fred The Hammer
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    Quote Originally Posted by R.P. McMurphy View Post
    Tough gm for me as well but leaning Texans. With Colts having several o-linemen down, travel on short wk, and I don't feel quite as confident with Luck on road anyhow he's obviously light out in Indy but not so much on road. Fitz is the wildcard here if they can establish a decent run attack and he does not Fukk up and throw 2/3 picks then Watt and that front 7 should be able to get after Luck enough and maybe even cause a couple turnovers. I know most will be all ov the Colts thinking blowout but I'm pretty convinced it won't be that easy. Texans were an absolute disaster last season and only lost by 3 at home to Indy, and gave the Cowpokes all they could handle last wk in Jerryland. And I know it's Dallas....But they been every bit as good as Colts this season so far if not better!
    Thats what I keep trying to say.....Indy has radically different talent around Luck compared to last year! Bradshaw (4 tds), Dwayne Allen (4 tds), Hakeem Nicks, and D'Qwell Jackson (100+ tackles every year)
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  18. 10-09-14 10:30 AM #18
    R.P. McMurphy
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    Yeah I agree Hammer but Texans obviously better team themselves after that disaster last year. Kinda evens out I suppose. But with Indy line troubles, Texans needing this gm more, and the "spot" I'm leaning home dog but honestly a bit more in a tease 7 pt getting them +10 at this point. Just a little scary going against Luck and Colts who have OWNED Texans in past and like everyone would agree I'm sure Fitz. scares me a bit! Oh yeah and that secondary. Any definitive word on Joseph's status?
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  19. 10-09-14 10:31 AM #19
    DOM_Toretto
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    Some good feedback here, along with the usual brokeass clown comments.

    Houston secondary is actually rapidly improving - if you watched that Dallas game you'd have seen them keep romo quiet all 1H and then have great coverage on some circus catches by dez & terrance. And like I showed in the OP, foster lights up this Indy team.

    Now that I know colts O-line is missing, I like it even more. I'm going to see what my Houson 1H line available is and pound that.
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  20. 10-09-14 10:50 AM #20
    rockaflocka
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    Bill O Brian has Fitz playing within the confines of his system and is playing pretty decently through 5 games. He has a 65% completion and a higher yards per catch than luck. Without starting guards the Colts will basically have no running game and will have to rely on luck to carry them this game. Although I think as someone mentioned earlier this is a great spot on a short week for the home team
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  21. 10-09-14 10:57 AM #21
    SharpAngles
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    Houston left it all on the field against Dallas. Grabbed Indy -3 +105 yesterday and I'm still feeling comfortable.
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  22. 10-09-14 11:46 AM #22
    pavyracer
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    Everyone on Houston. You know what to do.
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  23. 10-09-14 01:00 PM #23
    saints1856
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Everyone on Houston. You know what to do.
    Everyone on Houston?? Seems like I'm seeing a lot of love for Luck and the Colts on here....
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  24. 10-09-14 01:00 PM #24
    saints1856
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    Everyone on Houston. You know what to do.
    Everyone on Houston?? Seems like I'm seeing a lot of love for Luck and the Colts on here....
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  25. 10-09-14 03:03 PM #25
    Walulu
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    Exactly; I'm not seeing anything but some leans or teasers on Texans. More so seeing Colts gonna blow them out.
    Quote Originally Posted by saints1856 View Post
    Everyone on Houston?? Seems like I'm seeing a lot of love for Luck and the Colts on here....
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  26. 10-10-14 08:21 AM #26
    DOM_Toretto
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    Reflections from last night: 1) we should have prop bet jj watt to get a td, 2) luck is best qb in NFL, and 3) luck has become 1H & 2H qb unlike last year where he was strictly a 2H comeback machine.

    Lost 3.3u. Sorry to any tailers. Guess I was due for a letdown after going undefeated last Sunday. We will get it this Sunday.
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  27. 10-13-14 11:49 AM #27
    mjerni12
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    Dom if I was you I would put my money on the colts. Play the money line because this one could be close. I only give the texans about a 41% chance to win
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  28. 10-13-14 12:44 PM #28
    Ebumdude
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    Quote Originally Posted by mjerni12 View Post
    Dom if I was you I would put my money on the colts. Play the money line because this one could be close. I only give the texans about a 41% chance to win

    You DO realize that the game you speak of was played last Thursday, right?
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