[mikeya2k]

Packers roll through miami. what? they beat oakland bad?
Packers are in a groove. They will outduel Miami in a shootout.

[trevor123698]

looks good but miami off a bye week is something to think about. i could see the +3 being good here. last year i got burned on at least 5 different -2.5 or -3 spreads.

[Springhettios]

looks good but miami off a bye week is something to think about. i could see the +3 being good here. last year i got burned on at least 5 different -2.5 or -3 spreads.

True, but GB had the Thursday night game and also have had extra rest after their blow out win.

[strictlypaypal]

this looks a bit trappy.. if i had to lean it would be fins + points at home but too many other games to wager on this week

[LT Profits]

DOLPHINS (+3.5) are my best bet of the week. I got +3.5 -115 at Heritage. Still playable at +3 but not as strong.

[slacker00]

I'll never understand how people can look at laying points on the road and get excited.

[brewcrew2k]

Packers have only won one time in Miami. Not a good matchup here for the packers. I'd go Dolphins or nothing, and this is coming from a homer.

[LT Profits]

Courtesy of Walter Cherepinsky:


GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Quick, what do you know about Aaron Rodgers? He's obviously a great quarterback. He went to Cal after being in community college. He makes cool State Farm commercials. He hates Todd McShay's guts. And he kind of resembles Michael Scofield from Prison Break (imagine him with a shaved head). That's pretty much all I've got, and I imagine you have a similar list. Joe Philbin, on the other hand, knows Rodgers better than almost anyone.

Philbin, the head coach of the Dolphins, used to be Rodgers' offensive coordinator. He knows all of Rodgers' weaknesses, and he's had two weeks to prepare for his former signal-caller. He also has a defense that possesses a tremendous pass rush, which spells trouble for Rodgers, given how awful Green Bay's offensive line has been this year.

Rodgers will still get his yardage and points. He's just too good. However, he'll have to do everything because Miami excels against the run, so don't expect much from Eddie Lacy. It all just might be too much for Rodgers, so the Dolphins might be able to somewhat limit him and give their offense a chance to outscore one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Can the Dolphins' scoring attack do it? I wouldn't ordinarily have much faith in Ryan Tannehill, but considering the opponent, it might just be feasible.

Green Bay's defensive concerns have been well-documented. The team has so many liabilities on its stop unit, which would explain why it ranks 26th in overall defensive efficiency. The Packers are especially brutal when it comes to stopping the run. They've struggled at that aspect against most of their foes. They limited Minnesota's backs on Thursday night, so there is some hope, but that was likely the result of the defense being able to stack the box with Christian Ponder on the other side.

Lamar Miller (and perhaps Knowshon Moreno) will have much more success than Matt Asiata because the Packers will actually have to worry about Tannehill. Granted, he's not the greatest quarterback, but he's much better than Ponder. He also has some solid weapons that he can utilize, and I'm not confident that Green Bay's pedestrian linebackers and mediocre secondary will be able to stop them.

RECAP: As you can tell, I like the Dolphins quite a bit. I'm taking them for four units. Here's why:

1. The Philbin factor. Head coaches have had great success against their former quarterbacks over the years. As mentioned, Philbin has had two weeks to prepare.

2. The Packers are coming off a perfect win. They have to be feeling great about themselves, and they've had 10 days where everyone has been telling them how awesomethey are. Will they even be focused against a non-conference foe they know absolutely nothing about?

3. It's going to be hot in Miami. It's not September, but the forecast is calling for 88 and sunny, which will be brutal for a 1 p.m. start in South Beach. Like the Patriots, the Packers could melt under the Miami sun and just be completely exhausted in the second half.

4. The 80-20 rule currently applies. When there's 80 percent or so action on one side, the other side covers more often than not. The public is pounding Green Bay despite mostly everything favoring the Dolphins.


Source: WalterFootball.com

[brewcrew2k]

I disagree with the philbin factor, I mean most teams know Rodgers, just cause Philbin was the OC at Green Bay has little to do with who wins this game.

2,3, and 4 very good points, I would lean in the fact that the dolphins have a way better d then the vikings and Bears, and if they can't run they won't win, because I'm sure the Phins will play a cover 4 all day, which Rodgers has had some trouble with in the Lions game, where they couldn't run and couldn't score

And if you look at the vikings game, they didn't move the ball that good, they were aided with field position.

[meader99]

I'd agree wwith the Philbin factor. He and Rodgers were pretty tight. Reminds me of when Holmgren came back to Lambeau with the Hawks on a Monday night and put a beat down on favre.

[2daBank]

i love how phins scheme defensively with their blitz and blitz looks where many times they only bring 4 but still get their play makers a 1 on 1 match up with over matched olineman. packs pass protection still has holes and fish good at exploiting them. packs d been playing pretty well, especially with their own pass rush. i dont think this gm will be a shootout at all. fish should be able to do work on the ground and keep rodgers on the sideline for stretches. think lacy will build on last week and have success as well. i expect a lot of drives to stall when either team gets behind the chains as both defenses are bringing some heat. i dunno who wins but i think it a really close gm where both teams end up in low 20s.

[meader99]

If Moreno was 100% I think the Phins would win outright, and they may anyway. They better block Wake or its gonna be a long day.