[SteveRyan]

I just talked to a friend of mine who bets professionally here in Vegas.

He said that Green Bay is the play for Sunday.

Reason being, Chicago just played two nationally televised games in a row and won both. They are playing a 3rd one this week where they are likely to lose simply because it is uncommon for a team to win three nationally televised games in a row.

Interesting perspective. He is successful in NFL this season and has used logic along these lines thus for. No stats. It's all about scheduling.

Because he is doing so well, I am going to tail his play this weekend

Green Bay -1

[PhilTheTHRILL]

I just talked to a friend of mine who bets professionally here in Vegas.

He said that Green Bay is the play for Sunday.

Reason being, Chicago just played two nationally televised games in a row and won both. They are playing a 3rd one this week where they are likely to lose simply because it is uncommon for a team to win three nationally televised games in a row.

Interesting perspective. He is successful in NFL this season and has used logic along these lines thus for. No stats. It's all about scheduling.

Because he is doing so well, I am going to tail his play this weekend

Green Bay -1

interesting.

[2daBank]

Over better than a side but if ya made me I would take pack..

[Eddy Munny]

I don't think it really matters that the last two games were nationally televised. These are NFL players. They are used to the spotlight. TV games are just another game. In fact, the Jets game had the potential for a Bears letdown more so than this week's game because it was a classic sandwich. They had won a big prime time game @ SF and then had to play @ NY, with their hated division rival, the Packers, looming just around the corner. Easy game (Jets) to lose interest in and come out flat. Had it not been for a few breaks in that game, Bears could have easily lost it.

This game against the Packers will command their full attention and they have a chance to avenge last year's loss to end the regular season that shut them out of the playoffs. No way the Bears don't bring it this week. Not saying it will be enough to win necessarily, but I am saying it won't be lost on account of some hokey "b2b television game" trend.

[ramones951]

They play at 1pm Eastern in a regionally covered game

What is your friend talking about

[lesterdymond]

Who you crappin? It's a tough schedule but beating the Packers this Sunday will mean more to the organization then the last 2 wins combined. Bears opened at -1 for a reason. This line is a false favorite right now.

Go ahead bite but I think the game is unbettable. Pack should be -4 or -5 if it was meant to be.I guess there's still time.

[JJJ]

the bears defense is banged up big time

[2daBank]

the bears defense is banged up big time

It gonna take 31 to win this bitch I think..

[FlyinAir]

They play at 1pm Eastern in a regionally covered game

What is your friend talking about

Such a notable game though.

[SteveRyan]

They play at 1pm Eastern in a regionally covered game

What is your friend talking about

I'll clarify it with him. He may have meant that it's hard to win 3 in a row after winning the last two that were both nationally televised. I'll find out. The guy is sharp. He does this for a living.

[slacker00]

I'll clarify it with him. He may have meant that it's hard to win 3 in a row after winning the last two that were both nationally televised. I'll find out. The guy is sharp. He does this for a living.

Get him to post on here, so we can it straight, you've already proven that you don't understand what he's telling you.

[FlyinAir]

Get him to post on here, so we can it straight, you've already proven that you don't understand what he's telling you.

Ohhh my god.

[Plopowitz]

Regardless of the TV situation, I am with you on the point regarding the difficulty in winning that 3rd straight game.

[slacker00]

Regardless of the TV situation, I am with you on the point regarding the difficulty in winning that 3rd straight game.

Teams that have won 2 straight end up winning 3 straight more often than not. This can be proven with data.

[agendaman]

over the years the bears have always played g.b. tough over is prob. the bet hell i dunno

[d2bets]

I'll clarify it with him. He may have meant that it's hard to win 3 in a row after winning the last two that were both nationally televised. I'll find out. The guy is sharp. He does this for a living.

Bears are only the second team in the last 20 years to win back to back nationally televised road games (Seattle last year was the first). So, then, where is the trend to follow? The trend would have been Bears losing last week because of the back to back.

Sounds like your buddy is just hunting for an excuse to bet GB for whatever reason.

[d2bets]

As for the actual game, the line itself is definitely pretty bizarre and obviously gamblers think GB is due, or in a spot or are more desperate or it will be fixed not to bury GB's season. Because the Bears are the better football team, they are at home and they are getting points. Strange stuff indeed.

[SharpAngles]

The books know Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears at Soldier Field and most wagers will be blinded by both teams recent performances.

5-2 record as a starter, 21 TDs to 8 INT for almost 2000 yds. And that is against better D's than the Bears will field Sunday.

[Snowball]

They play at 1pm Eastern in a regionally covered game

What is your friend talking about

this. your friend is
just.plain.wrong.

[slacker00]

The books know Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears at Soldier Field and most wagers will be blinded by both teams recent performances.

5-2 record as a starter, 21 TDs to 8 INT for almost 2000 yds. And that is against better D's than the Bears will field Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers has owned every field he's played on for years, but he's not right this year. If you've seen the games this year, he looks lost out there. I don't know if it's the lack of receivers or his bad o-line, but teams just roll coverage to Jordy and invite Boykin or some anonymous TE to try to beat single coverage. So far it's been enough to keep Rodgers in check.

[WWWBUKTN]

Your friends theory is not only wrong because it's not a "national game" but also because this is one of two games every year that they play harder than all the others. Not only is it the longest rivalry in the NFL but also one of the greatest. The Bears, albeit beat up, are going to show up to play. I haven't really made my pick on this one yet but don't think for a second that the national games have done a thing to them, they will be up for this game for so many reasons with the first being they get a chance to put a hole in the Packers boat as that would put them at 1-3 which is not very conducive to making the playoffs. Bears need it just as bad, they will come to play.

[d2bets]

The best Green Bay argument is that if GB loses they are seriously buried and maybe toast for the season. Will the NFL allow this to happen? NFL games are random enough, especially now, that refs can easily engineer games if desired. There's a lot of randomness out there. But on balance, the Bears are better and at home.

Might be best to stay away. If you take GB and lose you feel like a penetrating idiot for giving points on the road with the worse team. If you take the Bears and lose you feel like a penetrating idiot for fighting the system.

Maybe just stay away here.

[StackinGreen]

Bears need it just as bad? Not really. But it's not like they don't have motivation

Your friend, Steve, is right but for the wrong reasons. Green Bay will win, but it's got nothing to do with whatever he's claiming.

Doesn't sound like a pro with that explanation.

[freakydave]

Bears need it just as bad? Not really. But it's not like they don't have motivation

Your friend, Steve, is right but for the wrong reasons. Green Bay will win, but it's got nothing to do with whatever he's claiming.

Doesn't sound like a pro with that explanation.

GB will win but I don't get why they are favored -it must have something to do with injuries & the short week

[Snowball]

GB will win but I don't get why they are favored -it must have something to do with injuries & the short week

persistent brand love.

[freakydave]

persistent brand love.

ya I am a packer fan & I had Chicago on mon nite.

[d2bets]

I think GB favored is a desperation must-win angle. If Packers lose they are starting to get pretty buried in the division. They'd be 2 full games behind Chi with a H2H loss and 0-2 in the division. Bad news Packers. So Packers "need" the game more. But they have really not shown anything this season to make anyone feel good about them. The supporting case around Rodgers is not what it was.

[meader99]

The best Green Bay argument is that if GB loses they are seriously buried and maybe toast for the season. Will the NFL allow this to happen? NFL games are random enough, especially now, that refs can easily engineer games if desired. There's a lot of randomness out there. But on balance, the Bears are better and at home.

Might be best to stay away. If you take GB and lose you feel like a penetrating idiot for giving points on the road with the worse team. If you take the Bears and lose you feel like a penetrating idiot for fighting the system.

Maybe just stay away here.

Buried after 4 games? Hardly. They would still have head to head home games with both Detroit and Chicago. It's the 3rd year in a row the Packers have started 1-2. The sky isn't falling......yet.

[no1here]

chicago wins

[slacker00]

GB got the division last year with only 8 wins. Starting 1-3 hardly buries them. Just another lousy angle.

[blackgolden]

over

[d2bets]

GB got the division last year with only 8 wins. Starting 1-3 hardly buries them. Just another lousy angle.

OK, I guess I didn't mean bury as in they literally have no chance, but it would really set them back big. They could be 2 full games behind both Chi and Det with H2H losses to both. Not buried, but that's a big hole to climb from nonetheless. 8 wins is not going to get it done again.

[DrStale]

The books know Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears at Soldier Field and most wagers will be blinded by both teams recent performances.

5-2 record as a starter, 21 TDs to 8 INT for almost 2000 yds. And that is against better D's than the Bears will field Sunday.

And what were his numbers in Detroit before last week?

[DOM_Toretto]

Hate the OP logic but like the side.

I'll be on packers-1 or even up to -3, based on what I've seen with Rodgers excelling both against the bears and more specifically at Chicago. Also, I think lacy will finally have a hell of a game and tear up the sieve-like banged-up defense of the bears. Lacy has gone up against three of the top run D's in the game (Seattle, Detroit, NYJ) and will finally break through this weekend. Finally, the WR duo in Chicago is 'healthy' enough to play but hasn't been practicing during the weeks and you may find them a half a step off or missing routes, etc.

[jjgold]

It's more that the Bears will not play another good game and the Packers need a win

That's how the NFL goes