[arpeggiomeister]

A lot has happened since I first introduced The Pendulum Cycle
Theory in 2012. At the time I used the theory exclusively on 10
point teasers. My back tests were successful for 5 years prior and
2012 was a smashing success for me.





2013 was a disaster. I do not chalk it up to my theory failing,
but rather I encountered something that I did not know how to deal
with and tried too many strategies to cope with these uncharted
waters. My 10 pont teaser strategy depended greatly on massive
polarization amongst teams in the league. I needed 8-10 really good
teams and 8-10 really crappy teams. 2013 saw more parity amongst
teams then I had ever experienced in the past and I was unsure how to
deal with it. As a result I used my 10 point teaser strategy,
something I called matrixing, 3 different touting services, and a 15
point teaser strategy. 2013 was a roller coaster ride. I came very
close to doubling my money 3 times. I also came to the brink of
disaster before each of those peaks. I went all in on 15 point
teasers to dig myself out of the hole and it worked 3 times. I got
cocky as a result. In week 16 I was pretty close to even money on
the season but I was hellbent on hitting 100%. I went all in again
and this time my luck ran out.

2013's disaster did bare fruit
however. I went back to the drawing board. The first and biggest
mistake I had made was trying to squeeze too much out of my system
instead of taking what the bookies were giving me. I could have come
out ahead 20% had I simply used better money management. I came up
with a new approach that does not rely on teasers. It instead chases
straight bets and is adaptable to point spreads and totals. I
further tested the idea in the MLB and had two separate experiments
that both netted 40% ROI. I had a 3^rd experiment that was
a terrible distraction I called the semi-arbitrage. Originally it
was designed to be a control experiment to the other two. The teams
for this strategy are random and thus any chase system should fail
over time. I went on a massive streak of 34 wins in a row using this
strategy and started feeling invincible once again. I put a tiny
bankroll on it to see what I could do. I used the strategy to turn
$200 into over $950 before the shit hit the fan. Luckily I was smart
enough this time to take the tiny profits I had left and call it a
day. I walked away with $246. It is a far cry from $950 but any
profit is a good profit.

The MLB experiments crystallized my
ideas. I feel very strongly that my strategy gives me an edge.
Could I just be fooling myself? Sure. That is why I conduct these
experiments, to see if there is merit to my ideas or am I just being
delusional.

The NBA and MLB experiments were paper trades.
This one will be the real deal. I am putting $1,000 on the line. I
am fully prepared to lose it.





What is this new strategy? It is a 4 tier grand martingale
system. My filter is fairly simple. I am watching for a team to
lose ATS 3 weeks in a row. That being the case, the experiment will
not begin until week 4. If there is no team that has lost 3 games
ATS in a row I will chose a team that ranks high on the ESPN power
rankings with at least one loss ATS and plug it in. I plan to get
out by week 15. If my chase is not resolved I will continue into
week 16 and 17 to try and score a win. If I have a loss in week 15
but am showing a substantial profit then I may chose to take my
profits off the table.





My target is 38% ROI. Being that this is a grand martingale the
profits are fairly predictable as long as I score the wins I
need.

This is a chase system and I make no apologies for it.
I know there are a lot of chase-haters out there. Please spare me
the commentary as I have heard all of the arguments before. If this
game is random as many suggest then sooner or later I am destined to
fail. I have made my peace with that. If it is not random and I am
right about these bubble patterns then I have discovered a clearly
defined edge. This edge lies at the very heart of the point spread
system. My theory is that the system depends on these bubbles to
maintain the uncanny balance between favorites and underdogs. My
theory is that this game is not random at all, it is cyclical, and as
such is highly vulnerable to chase systems. The reason why most
chases fail is because they do not follow these cycles. Chase
systems fail against random games of chance. It has been
mathematically proven and is a highly documented fact, even in my own
experiments. This is different. The gambler's fallacy is not a
fallacy at all, but sound logic when it comes to sports. Prior
outcomes effect the spreads. The spreads effect the odds. It is
simply a matter of timing the cycles and designing a chase system
deep enough to capture the wins and shallow enough to show a
respectable profit. It is a balancing act.

This is my 3^rd
NFL season using this idea. I have seen enough results that I am
convinced that I am right. Though I am personally convinced my
sample size is far too small to draw any such conclusions. I am
humble enough to realize this could be nothing more then a fool's
errand. I know what the experts say. I have an idea that
contradicts conventional wisdom. I have test results showing
evidence that my theory is correct. I call these “experiments”
because they are testing this idea.





If I hit 19% for the NFL I will have 100% on the year. I hit 22%
in the NBA and 40% in the MLB. If you compound all three numbers it
comes out to 100% ROI. That is the true test of a chase system. If
it can consistently survive past 100% ROI before failing it is
legitmate. It simply comes down to money management. Anything less
then 100% is an incomplete trial for a chase system puts your total
bankroll at risk.

I believe I will hit that 19% and more.
That is what I have set out to do, and this thread is intended to
document my results. See you in week 4.

[arpeggiomeister]

Waiting until week 4 blows so I have decided to play a 10 point teaser strategy until such a time as my straight bet strategy can kick in. I am playing a straight martingale. I have chosen my games in such a way as to be able to jump in late on Sunday if I lose. My first 10 point teaser is SEA over 36.5, PHI -1, and NE +5.5.

[keel44]

I agree with you on your theories....just not necessarily the money management. What about teams that win ATS for 3 consecutive games? Will you bet them to lose ATS? Why a grand martingale, not just a martingale?

Anyways best of luck.

[arpeggiomeister]

I agree with you on your theories....just not necessarily the money management. What about teams that win ATS for 3 consecutive games? Will you bet them to lose ATS? Why a grand martingale, not just a martingale?

Anyways best of luck.

You have several points and I will touch them all. Consecutive wins should have the same affect as consecutive losses although I have not back tested to time the cycles. The theory is that each consecutive win or loss will affect the odds in the opposite direction for the next game. The more a team wins, the more likely a loss ATS will be in their future. The more they lose ATS the more likely a win will be in their future. The spreads are adjusted until money flows on both sides. This is not a rigid mathematical equation but an emotional one. The best we can do is to time the average cycles and design a chase system large enough to handle them. Why a grand martingale and not just a straight martingale? Predictability. I can tell you how much I will make and by when with a fair amount of certainty. For example, I will either make a 40% gain or bust. If I use a straight martingale I could score 4 wins or 12. The difference in ROI is drastic. A grand martigale applied to the same results would have the same ROI no matter which outcome occurred. It either wins in a predictable manner or busts. I have saved your first point for last. You disagree with my money management system. Quite frankly, so do I. I only use it because I have not yet found a better way. Chase systems are extraordinarily risky. They put your entire bankroll at risk. If this is true then why on earth would I use them? It is because I am conceding that I can not consistently pick winners at a percentage above 52.4%. The system was designed to keep balance. My theory states that this balance is cyclical, not random. That means that if I can design a chase system large enough to envelope these cycles then picking winners at 50% is enough to be profitable. If I could find a way to consistently pick winners at 55% or better I would dump the chase systems in a heartbeat. If my theory is correct these chase systems are exploiting the very mechanism that makes the point spread system work in the first place. I am utilizing the system against itself. I am depending on that system to maintain balance. If balance is maintained I make money.

[arpeggiomeister]

One leg down, 2 to go.

[arpeggiomeister]

Spent the entire game thinking the Eagles were going to lose this teaser for me and the Patriots end up crapping out. I have a late game 10 point teaser. SF +7, TB +6, and DEN/IND over 43.5. I am chasing the $23 on the first bet. $51.60 to win $43.

[arpeggiomeister]

Rough start. I was drinking the koolaid about fading the Panthers because Cam was out. TB is showing why they continuously suck year after year. Taking a 3rd shot tonight on the over with DEN 53.5, $102.93 to win $93.60. We'll see if I can turn this around.

[arpeggiomeister]

Oh sweet victory!!! I have been sweating it out for the whole game but I just covered the over. After a rough day this is gratifying.

[keel44]

What are doing? and why? You can't wait until week 4?

[arpeggiomeister]

Are you scolding me??? I cut my teeth in the NFL with 10 point teasers. If I can boost my ROI early it gives me the option to exit before week 15 or stick it out and try to get a higher ROI.

[Crazystarky]

He can't "wait" because he is like all of us on here for the reason of the high (₩). Unless the high gets stomped on by a loss, we try and cope with a chase to get that high back ^ and repeat until we feel invincible* then fall back down with that feeling were trapped in a hole feeling sick at the end of the weekend handing over a piece of the roll to the books...

I want to say I have been an avid sports better and selfcapper for years and have had my own systems and have had success with similar interests in your system and I have to say your write up was fantastic to hear and read thanks for your input and your system has to work it's proven mathematically but beyond systematically. It is a given that this will play into factor eventually and I wish you the best of luck and will be tailing (who wouldn't -they would be foolish) your system has better odds than 50/50 at the time of the punch . Whomever is reading this will win and hopefully we crush the books together this season.... I have had a system that I used in the past that's similar but haven't used in a few years the last time I used it on baseball it worked big time and in nfl it's the same aspect that (it's eventually going to happen with the aspect of a balanced board that evens itself out over time.! ! You have to see through the board rather than focusing on the games in particular and past patterns will result in a balanced future if your looking in the right direction ☆ ☆

sorry for the long boring conversation to all that this doesn't apply to ... I just wanted to again say I understand the fundamentals of your theoretical system and wanted to say excellent post and thanks again for sharing. I am new on this site and will be looking forward to sharing/combining systems or just knowledge to help all on here ( thanks for the patients)

LET'S SMASH THE BOOKS

[keel44]

If I was scolding you, I would use caps and exclamation points. It just looks like to me you were totally chasing your losses recklessly and forcing bets. That is none of my business, but it was not what your thread is about. I hope you will have the money to keep this thread going all year. I am interested in that.

[arpeggiomeister]

I am trying to get ahead of the game. If I did somehow lose it I would replace it to do the experiment. Even if I had to paper trade I would still do the experiment. I have had too much success to step away from this now. My current exit point is set for week 15. If I start a new chase in week 15 with he given parameters I can not go the full 4 tiers. If I bank some profit before week 4 I can then step away in week 14, or chase to week 17 if needed. I do not feel I am being reckless. I had my reasons for each one of those bets. They are not related to each other so in that regards you are correct, I am playing a random game instead of playing off psychology which is my main strategy. In each of these situations I felt they were undervalued. When I think something is undervalued I will pound it!!! Now I came up short twice but came out okay in the final bet. My 10 point teaser strategy only needs one week of results which we now have. I have already chosen my week 2 teaser and placed the bet. The write up is coming shortly.

[arpeggiomeister]

He can't "wait" because he is like all of us on here for the reason of the high (₩). Unless the high gets stomped on by a loss, we try and cope with a chase to get that high back ^ and repeat until we feel invincible* then fall back down with that feeling were trapped in a hole feeling sick at the end of the weekend handing over a piece of the roll to the books...

I want to say I have been an avid sports better and selfcapper for years and have had my own systems and have had success with similar interests in your system and I have to say your write up was fantastic to hear and read thanks for your input and your system has to work it's proven mathematically but beyond systematically. It is a given that this will play into factor eventually and I wish you the best of luck and will be tailing (who wouldn't -they would be foolish) your system has better odds than 50/50 at the time of the punch . Whomever is reading this will win and hopefully we crush the books together this season.... I have had a system that I used in the past that's similar but haven't used in a few years the last time I used it on baseball it worked big time and in nfl it's the same aspect that (it's eventually going to happen with the aspect of a balanced board that evens itself out over time.! ! You have to see through the board rather than focusing on the games in particular and past patterns will result in a balanced future if your looking in the right direction ☆ ☆

sorry for the long boring conversation to all that this doesn't apply to ... I just wanted to again say I understand the fundamentals of your theoretical system and wanted to say excellent post and thanks again for sharing. I am new on this site and will be looking forward to sharing/combining systems or just knowledge to help all on here ( thanks for the patients)

LET'S SMASH THE BOOKS

Thanks for your comments. Your conversation is not long and boring at all. I encourage everyone to express their thoughts, I simply ask that they be respectful. Chasing is a controversial topic because it is not supposed to work. I am trying to prove that sports is the exception to the rule. If I am wrong then I am simply another yahoo who posted a losing system. I am not the first and certainly will not be the last. I don't think I am wrong though. (We never do until we lose. lol) Your comments about seeing through the board I think are spot on. The danger with the NFL is that I know too much (or think I know). My experiments in the NBA and MLB were based strictly on the point spreads (or odds in the MLB) available and where teams were in the power rankings, nothing more. It worked beautifully. When I start interjecting my own thoughts about what I think is happening in the teams is where I usually get into trouble.

[arpeggiomeister]

My 10 point teaser for Sunday is PIT +13, NE +7, and NO over 37.5. The only selection that qualifies under the Pendulum Cycle Theory is NE. It actually is a double qualifier though. It is not just whether a team wins or loses ATS, but by how much. NE lost ATS by 16.5 points when they were favored. This is underperformance. The Vikings were the dogs and bet the spread by 30.5 points. This is overperformance. According to my theory both situations should regress towards the mean. It is a little early but I think taking NE straight up in this game is a good call. You would continue to chase if they lose ATS. I have put them into a teaser instead. I expect them to win straight up as long as they can contain AP. With big Vince Wilfork back I think they will manage him okay. The choice of the steelers is based on history. Steelers vs the Ravens have always been tight games historically. I like the Steelers to win this straight up but feel much more comfortable teasing the line to +13. The Saints vs the Browns is because the Saints have a high powered offense. Brian Hoyer should us that he can hang in there. I expect both teams to score at least 20 points in this game. My guess NO 31, CLE 27.

[keel44]

How about the Rams +15? Where does that fit in the pendulum ?

[arpeggiomeister]

Ouch, every time I try to do normal handicapping this happens. The Steelers lay an egg. I am giving chase with a straight bet on NE. If that bet loses then I will step back and reset.

[arpeggiomeister]

How about the Rams +15? Where does that fit in the pendulum ?

The Rams are on my radar. The square in me does not like putting my trust into a crappy team, I would much rather put my trust into a strong team to bounce back from a poor performance. That said, the Rams blew expectations by over 30 points ATS. Teasing them is a good play. It fits the theory perfectly.

[arpeggiomeister]

I wanted to take the time to expand on Keel's question about the
Rams because I have a lot of thoughts regarding that play. I have
been fairly busy with things that have no relationship to gambling
whatsoever lately. I did want to get back to this before kick-off
and touch on the psychology of it and how my own personal psychology
fits into the grand scheme of things.

My theory is that the
point spread is highly reactionary due to what people see during
games. I keep a chart throughout the season that tells me each
team's performance against the spread and how much they win or lose
by. That second piece of information is vital in my decision making.
The other vital piece of information is the power rankings.

When
I first put out this theory I was just simply looking for anomalies
such as the Rams losing 30.5 points ATS. I soon interjected a second
thought that made a world of difference... ...or at least I think
it did due to my observations, it is still hypothetical at this
juncture. That thought has to do with the power rankings. It is
quite simple, good teams are expected to do good, while poor teams
are expected to suck. In order to create a strong reaction from the
public a team must buck these expectations. This is why I feel the
Patriots losing ATS by 16.5 is a stronger indication of an imminent
reversal then the Rams losing ATS. The Rams are currently ranked #32
on the power rankings and thus are expected to suck. Losing 30.5 ATS
is bound to raise eyebrows on many people, especially the sharps, but
does it truly constitute shocking the public? It is a bad team doing
what we expect a bad team to do. The number is so high that I would
certainly expect Vegas to do something to get people to bet. In that
sense I absolutely agree with Keel that this would be a very smart
choice to tease.





A much stronger choice would be the Patriots. Last week the
Patriots were ranked #3 in the ESPN power rankings. They have fallen
to #7 after their loss to Miami. The Pats have been the dominant
team in the AFC East for over a decade. The Patriots are one of the
most heavily bet teams and I am guilty of contributing to that stat.
Expectations run very high for this team. Losing 16.5 ATS comes as a
shock to the general public who is highly reactionary. When the
public gets burned they make rash decisions. Those decisions
typically play right into the hands of the bookmakers. The stock
market is no different. People buy when they should sell and sell
when they should buy. Take a look at this quote from the ESPN power
rankings. This is what convinced me to take the Pats straight up
today.

Tom Brady was 2-of-18 on throws at least 15 yards downfield. His 16 incompletions on deep throws are the most by anyone in Stats & Info's data set (since 2006). - ESPN Power Rankings week 2, 2014

The talking heads are starting to write Tom Brady off as a bad QB.
It may be justified, it may not be, but I have put my money on the
idea that they are over-reacting. Miami has successfully game
planned the Patriots before. Remember the Wildcat??? Reporters said
Miami's plan was to use the heat and humidity to wear the team down.
My oversimplified observations tell me they were successful. Big
boys like Vince Wilfork have a tough time in hot temperatures. The
defense was worn down and could not keep up in the second half.
Meanwhile the NE offense fell apart in the second half. Was Brady
playing bad or did Miami do a good job making adjustments? I think
Miami game planned NE successfully. The talking heads have
over-reacted and now the sheep are scared. Reports of the Patriot's
demise are premature. I think there is tremendous value here.

The
reason I do not handicap the way the pros do is because I do not have
the time to do it in a manner that I feel would be proper. I would
need stats on all the players and I am not even certain that we would
have some of the stats that I am looking for. I would start by
looking at the offensive line vs the defense. How much does each
player weigh, how much can the bench press, and how much can they
squat or dead lift? It is all about pushing people on the O line.
Then you get into receivers and running backs vs corners and safeties
and speed becomes a huge factor. I don't know if there is a stat for
it, but elusiveness is also a factor. This list goes on and on. I
do not have the data and am not sure I could properly interpret it
even if I did. This is why I concede that I do not feel I can
consistently beat the spread. The people who create the spread have
much more information and better understanding of the game then I
ever will.





If I am correct and the spread is reactionary, just like the
public, then I do not need to do all of this. It will create cycles
that can be timed and chase systems are the perfect tool to do it.
If the spread does its job then balance will be maintained. If I
were to go 8-8 straight betting I would lose money flat betting. If
I use a chase system and manage to outlast any losing streak then
those same stats make me a profit. In fact I can go 4-12 and still
make a profit as long as I do not get wiped out by a losing streak.
My concern is not trying to pick 52.4% or better, that has little to
no effect on my success. My success or failure will be based on any
losing streak greater then 4 games. If the game is random then I am
screwed. If it is cyclical as I have suggested then sooner or later
the evidence is going to mount up to a point where people will no
longer be able to ignore it or attribute it to dumb luck.





I am not above the psychology that I am trying to take advantage
of. I freely admit I have a bias for the Patriots, as many do that
live in this area. I act and react on partial information as
evidenced by my picking the Steelers in a teaser on Thursday. I am
certain that many of you can relate. When you are most afraid to
pull the trigger on a team that is the time to strike. Vegas has
designed a system that uses these emotions against you. The only way
to counteract them is to be aware of them.





My play on the Pats today makes me nervous. Brady is getting old.
Maybe the talking heads are right. The Pats slipped 4 spots on the
power rankings. Maybe they should not even be gracing the top 10.
These are things that are running through the minds of virtually
anyone backing the Pats today, and it makes that line weak...
...which is why I am taking it. That is my logic, we will see what
happens.

[YouHave2outs]

are you a comedian or is this real?

i need to know.

thank you.

[arpeggiomeister]

Chase Tracker 2014 AFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

L 16.5

NYJ

L 3..5

BUF

W 10.5

MIA

W 16.5

PIT

L 2.5

L 17

BAL

L 8

W 17

CIN

W 8

CLE

W 2.5

HOU

W 7

IND

W 0.5

JAC

L 6

TEN

W 19

DEN

L 0.5

SD

W 1.5

KC

L 19

OAK

W 3.5

NFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NYG

L 14

PHI

W 6

WAS

L 8

DAL

L 8

GB

L 15.5

CHI

L 10.5

DET

W 14

MIN

W 30.5

NO

L 6

ATL

W 6

CAR

W 10.5

TB

L 10.5

SF

W 8

SEA

W 15.5

STL

L 30.5

ARI

L 1.5

This is the chart I use to track the progress of teams ATS. I highlight and game that exceeds 18 points ATS anticipating a reversal. I feel that a strong team losing ATS is more likely to have a reversal then a poor team that lost ATS. A poor team exceeding expectations by 18+ ATS is also a strong indication of an imminent reversal. These are very simple tools that anyone can do. This is at the heart of what I do.

[YouHave2outs]

is this real? or is this for comedy? i am laughing so hard.

[arpeggiomeister]

is this real? or is this for comedy? i am laughing so hard.

Your comments are obviously intended to be derogatory but I will oblige... ...this is very real. I have put out a theory that the point spread system is essentially a free market. As such bubble phenomenon is not only common, but the driving force that maintains the uncanny balance between underdogs and favorite teams in any given sport. I have mountains of data to support my ideas. If you wish to debate these ideas that is fine but I ask you to do so in a respectful manner. Do not come on here and start slinging insults and condescending commentary.

[arpeggiomeister]

Sealed the win with the Pats. This win puts me ahead of the game so I am now taking a freebie with a 10 point teaser on Denver -2 and over 38.5, and Greenbay +2.5. This bet is $24 to win $20. Denver lost ATS last week by 1/2 point. Not a big indicator, but they are home. I will ride overs with Denver until they give me a reason not to. I am expecting Greenbay to rebound.

[arpeggiomeister]

The Saints are down and expecting them to be undervalued next week. I will keep my eye on this game. I may start in with them next week SU.

[arpeggiomeister]

With my second win today I am now up $120 for a 12% ROI. It was a risky decision to pull the trigger with the 10 point teaser strategy and then switch to the main system I have proposed at the beginning of this thread. It has paid off though and will now allow me to exit in week14 or earlier. If I were to lose in week 14 I can then have until week 17 to use the full 4 tiers of the chase system to close it out. This was my primary objective. Because I will be following the fate of one team at a time there are precious few opportunities in the NFL compared to other sports. I have now given myself some breathing room.

[arpeggiomeister]

The Denver Broncos failed to cover the spread for a second week in a row. The Saints are 0-2 straight up. I will be mindful of how the spread reacts to this. Seattle loses on the road which would make them a good candidate for a teaser next week. I have not yet decided if I will start the straight bets early or go with another teaser but I have solid numbers to work with now.

[@kins]

Tremendous.

I for one appreciate all the work you put into this, keep it up!

[arpeggiomeister]

Here are the results from week 2 ATS. I will discuss the trends that I see. There are a lot of them, too many for me to put my money on all of them. Chase Tracker 2014 AFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

L 16.5

W 27

NYJ

L 3..5

W 0.5

BUF

W 10.5

W 19

MIA

W 16.5

L 19

PIT

L 2.5

L 17

BAL

L 8

W 17

CIN

W 8

W 9.5

CLE

W 2.5

W 7

HOU

W 7

W 13

IND

W 0.5

L 5.5

JAC

L 6

L 26

TEN

W 19

L 19

DEN

L 0.5

L 6

SD

W 1.5

W 13.5

KC

L 19

W 6

OAK

W 3.5

L 13

NFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NYG

L 14

L 12

PHI

W 6

W 5.5

WAS

L 8

W 26

DAL

L 8

W 19

GB

L 15.5

L 0.5

CHI

L 10.5

W 15.5

DET

W 14

L 16

MIN

W 30.5

L 27

NO

L 6

L 7

ATL

W 6

L 9.5

CAR

W 10.5

W 16

TB

L 10.5

L 6

SF

W 8

L 15.5

SEA

W 15.5

L 13.5

STL

L 30.5

W 6

ARI

L 1.5

W 12

[arpeggiomeister]

When I do these charts I am trying to peer into the mind of the
public. How will they react to the numbers that they see? I believe
the point spread system is a free market system. People buy and sell
the spread the same way oranges are traded on the commodities market
or microsoft is bought and sold on the stock exchange. As a general
rule people will buy when they are supposed to sell and sell when
they are supposed to buy. It is simple human nature. Everybody
wants to be on the winning train and nobody wants to hitch themselves
to the losing train. When they see multiple losses in a row they shy
away. When they see a team continuously beat the spread they jump on
in hopes of capturing some of that momentum. It takes guts to buck
this trend. I, for one, am certainly not above it. After the
opening game against Miami I was scared to pull the trigger on the
Patriots. I placed my bet before I knew anything about Adrian
Peterson being pulled. These are the psychological trends I am
looking for. I can often use my own reactions to gauge where I think
the public is at. It is essentially a binary system: fear and greed.





Trend #1 – You will notice in my chart that I have games
highlighted in red. I highlight any game where the spread was off
by 18 or more points. This signifies a large departure from public
expectation and tips me off that a reversal is imminent. I usually
try and use a 10 point teaser to pile these teams in and capture that
reversal. Anything within 10 points is in my opinion at public
expectation. If a team loses by 30 points ATS on one game and then
the next week loses by 0.5 ATS I consider this a return to the mean.
Both bets would have lost ATS but if you used a 10 point teaser you
would have captured a win. The more you study charts like this the
more you will see how accurate a predictor this is.





I am going contrarian with this. If they win I fade them, if they
lose I bet them. This week all 4 teams with a red highlight not only
returned to the mean as expected, they all covered straight up. This
is not the only filter I use but it was amazing to see this filter
hit 100% for the week. In the long term no filter should hit above
50% SU. The point spread system is
designed to maintain balance and does a very good job of that. My
approach is playing the system, not the teams. I am attempting to
use the very design to make money and chase system are the best
suited tool I have found to do that.





You will see that this week we have 8 different teams that are due
for reversals. Not every reversal will be immediate, but most of
them will.





Trend #2 Volatility!!!!





We have 6 teams that have had violent swings from a loss > 10
to a win > 10 or vice versa. This is blatant proof that the point
spread system is no where near as efficient as what many of the
experts think. If the point spread system were efficient then every
game would result in a push. That is no good for anyone; not the
bookies or the bettors.






These results show that the public does not have a good beat on
what is happening with these teams. They will cycle through fear and
greed, winning and losing, until balance is reached. Keep an eye on
these teams throughout the season and you will see the pattern
exactly as I have described it. These wild outcomes will narrow down
until the results are within 10 points of the spread. This
oscillation is the very heart of the point spread system. It is how
it maintains balance. Over the course of the season these teams will
demonstrate that as these violent swings smooth out. SEA, NE, TEN,
MIN, MIA, and BUF (add DET too)





Trend #3 Slow Burn





These are teams where the results are actually steady. NYJ, CIN,
NYG, and NO are good examples. The results of week 2 are only a few
points off from week one. It is important to be mindful of such
trends when you are using a chase system because the enemy of a chase
system is a losing streak. You only have a handful of chances to get
it right before you get wiped out.





Trend #4 Bubbles forming.





There are several of these. If you have two losses ATS in a row
or two wins ATS then that is the first sign. The second sign is what
direction is it heading in? Is the bubble growing or regressing
towards the mean. NYG is regressing. They lost by 14 ATS and then
by 12. Anything within 10 points should be considered normal. While
my chase system looks for 3 losses in a row ATS to as its main filter
this team would be one that I would avoid right now. We want the
team that is most likely to cover the spread within a given time
frame dictated by the tiers of our chase.





Here are the 3 main teams I am looking at right now: DEN, NO, and
PIT. In all 3 of these cases the bubble is growing, but in the case
of PIT the bubble is growing violently.





I have not looked at the spreads yet, but just looking at the
matchups my first gut reaction is to go with NO. They are playing
the Vikings with no AP. They are at home. The has all the hallmarks
of a potential blow out. This is pretty square thinking though.
This is the same kind of thinking that had me scared to pull the
trigger on the Patriots last week.

If you try to anticipate
the public I think the best choice is actually going to be the
Steelers. CAR has a growing bubble. They are due for a loss ATS.
The Steelers have a growing bubble in the opposite direction. They
are due for a win ATS. Keep in mind that I have not seen the spreads
yet and that could change my mind, however, if the spread reacts the
way I think then this is the play.

[arpeggiomeister]

Tremendous.

I for one appreciate all the work you put into this, keep it up!

Thank you.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have decided to go with a 10 point teaser again this week. I took ATL +4, NO pk, and NP ov 39.5. I chose Atlanta because they are home against their division rival TB. The falcons just lost ATS by 9.5 and are facing a weaker team. Where this is a division rivalry game I think it could be close but I feel Atlanta will win it, even if TB covers the spread. I feel pretty good about teasing ATL to +4. NO has lost ATS two games in a row. This game is at home vs a Vikings team with no AP. This game may very well have blow out written all over it. Barring any extreme supernatural event the Saints should win this game handily. The Saints tend to score a ton of points when they are home so I teased the over on this as well.

[arpeggiomeister]

ps this $24 to win $20

[arpeggiomeister]

The over is not working out on that teaser. I am giving chase with Miami +4.5 and over 33, and PIT +13. Both Miami and PIT are Pendulum Cycle plays. I do not feel strongly on these games by looking just at the teams. I am trusting in the numbers and hoping I am successful. I did not want to touch the Seahawks game or the 49ers.

[arpeggiomeister]

Greenbay just lost its third game ATS. I will need to look at the numbers once they are all in. JAC is looking terrible but as long as I have a better team to go with I will not touch them. perhaps I can jump on them once they have lost 4 or 5 in a row.