[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Information power rating analysis from J.J.Bascus power rating system [ Cal-Neva Resort Spa and Casino lake Tahoe N.V..] considered the best 80% true.
J.J.Bascus algorithm[ is a step-by-step procedure for calculations]. Algorithms are used for calculation, data processing, and automated reasoning. takes sports numbers and adjusts them for strength of schedule. As a simple example of sports numbers, consider a team’s margin of victory, or points scored minus points allowed per game. It’s difficult to rank teams by this raw statistic. A good team that plays a weak schedule could have a higher margin of victory than a top team that plays a difficult schedule. The algorithm adjusts this raw margin of victory for schedule strength. The result is a rating that gives a predicted margin of victory against an average team in the league. These ratings determine J.J.Bascus power rankings. J.J.Bascus power rating predicted point spread gives one team a higher likelihood of winning the game. The fraction of times this team actually wins gives an accuracy for the algorithm.

The statistical physics of our algorithm considers all interactions or games to produce team rankings, which are like the bulk properties of the water drop. started by ranking teams, J.J. Bascus realized the algorithm was applicable to more than just margin of victory. Other types of raw statistics, such as points scored by the offense, lead to rankings of scoring offense. Of course, an offense interacts with the defense from the opposing teams. Since we must consider these units in ranking scoring offense, also get rankings for scoring defense.

It doesn’t end there. Raw statistics such as yards per pass attempt lead to rankings for pass offense and defense. The algorithm adjusts these raw quantities for strength of schedule, which opens up a rich set of insights into football. . J.J.Bascus of his power rating is still exploring all the different types of statistics that algorithm can turn into a set of rankings. Pass rush versus pass protection based on sack rate might be an interesting one.

While J.J. Bascus originally started by ranking teams, J.J Bascus soon realized the algorithm was applicable to more than just margin of victory. Other types of raw statistics, such as points scored by the offense, lead to rankings of scoring offense. Of course, an offense interacts with the defense from the opposing teams. Since we must consider these units in ranking scoring offense, we also get rankings for scoring defense.

It doesn’t end there SBR members for J.J.Bascus. Raw statistics such as yards per pass attempt lead to rankings for pass offense and defense. The algorithm adjusts these raw quantities for strength of schedule, which opens up a rich set of insights into football. That's why ladies and gentlemen of jury[SBR Sports Forum] J.J. Bascus power rating was 80% true in NFL last season. I will be sharing his rating with my threads and prediction to all of you in NFL season this year

PS. I am still learning the foundation of his system as a mentor of J.J..Bascus, and hope to learn a lot more SBR Members. I personal evaluate his power rating system as best in NFL and there is no comparison with other power rating systems.

PSS. There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

This should go without saying, but - I'll say it anyway. The system does not take into account injuries, weather conditions, yardage gained, the importance of the game, whether it was a Monday Night game or not, whether the quarterback's grandomother was sick, or anything else besides points scored and points allowed.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

I AM ALWAYS OPEN FOR CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM ON MY THREADS I KNOW THIS IS OPEN FORUM, SO I EXPECT LOTS OF IRRELEVANT COMMENTS UNRELATED THAT I HAVE TO WEED OUT. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME GREAT MEMBERS SBR SPORTS FORUM THAT BELIEVE IN SHARING IDEAS AND INFORMATION ON THREADS.

Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[KVB]

Hey Hat, I posted on your thread regarding your techniques on handicapping and I’m interested in hearing (or reading) your thoughts on that post.

For this thread I will add a thought. I realize the importance of taking into account the relative strengths of schedules when evaluating matchups. I would add that, when determining the strength of the schedule of a team, one should not only be looking at that team’s opponents during a specified time frame, but also incorporate the strength of schedule of the opponents’ opponents of that team during the specified time.

For example, if San Francisco plays Seattle a certain week, one would look at the strength of schedules for each team for a given time period (season to date, last 4 games, etc.) Let’s say, all stats being equal and based on the opponent performance, it is determined that SF had the tougher strength of schedule. But what if, during the specified time frame, SF’s opponents all did well against below average, or weak teams.Then, let’s say Seattle’s opponents during that time frame were forced to play top tier teams and didn’t perform as well.

During the time frame Seattle’s opponents appear to be weaker, giving Seattle the weaker strength of schedule. In actuality, it was the tougher “opponents’ strength of schedule” that caused this result.

If you correctly account for the strength of schedule of the opponents you are using to calculate the strength of schedule of a team you are handicapping your conclusions are not only more precise, they are closer to reality.

The closer your opinion of a game is to reality, the better you are able to stand that opinion up against the market to see if you have a bet.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[KnownUnknown]

Mr . Hat, how does this system take into account the tremendous personnel turnover that takes place yearly in the NFL? From one year to the next you have to figure out who these teams are (IMO) and that is one of the biggest challenges of handicapping NFL teams.

[KVB]

Mr . Hat, how does this system take into account the tremendous personnel turnover that takes place yearly in the NFL? From one year to the next you have to figure out who these teams are (IMO) and that is one of the biggest challenges of handicapping NFL teams.

Using some sort of recent performance is essential to creating a more accurate line than the oddsmakers and the marketplace. Many successful bettors use a weighted formula of past performance and recent performance together to determine where team has been, is currently, and, most importantly where it is likely to headed.

If you want to handicap using more long term, year to year trends, it is likely you need predictive stats that don't involve things like personnel changes. This takes a significant amount of creative thinking as well as an understanding of the marketplace.

Hell, you can successfully develop a handicapping model using only mistakes, like fumbles, etc. if you understand the relationships on the field and, once again, the marketplace.

There are many ways to skin a cat, consider it knowledge for the esoteric.

As far as the Hat goes, he admittedly will not bet the first week of the NFL. Likely, the year to year changes are still being evaluated. While this Bascus fella may have an algorithm that rings 80% closer to reality as opposed to a clean 55%-60+% that most successful bettors will take in an instant, it unfortunately only generates one play a week. It only finds one line far enough off to generated an opinion..and remember even those can lose. Most successful bettors will be able to generate more conclusions throughout the marketplace, throughout the year, leading to more profit. I often wonder if the Hat is exercising all of his advantages.

As far as figuring out who these team are year after year, know this...you have all the information you need by the end of week four, and in many cases, sooner.