[Limey]

DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
NFL teams are rarely as bad (or as good) as we think, but Kansas City must be close. They rank badly in almost every facet of the game, and having their most dangerous receiver out, suspended at present, doesn't help. Meanwhile, Denver are likely bound for the playoffs and they need the win here pretty badly, with a nasty schedule following this weekend. That would be enough for me to bet the Broncos here, but what makes it a gold star opportunity is the Josh McDaniels versus Matt Cassell matchup. McDaniels was Cassell's QB coach and offensive co-ordinator at New England and should know exactly what buttons to push to ensure the the Chiefs' weak passing game goes absolutely nowhere on Sunday.
Mystic Limey forsees: DEN 27 - 9 KC
DENVER ML 1.42 for 12 units DENVER -5.5 for 8 units

PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA
I really wanted to bet the Eagles in this spot, as I still think there is some value in opposing Atlanta. However, it's hard to decide whether Matt Ryan being out adds to that value or kills it. In the end, the fact that this game is sandwiched by crucial divisional games for Philly puts me off. However, I like the total here. I think the Eagles will put up points against a really poor Atlanta defense, but will be sloppy enough that this will stay close with scoring to the end.
Mystic Limey forsees: PHI 31 - 20 ATL
OVER 43.5 @ for 4 units

NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON
i can't touch the spread in this game, it just looks about right. But Washington's doughty, legit defense mixed with their lousy scoring offense and then seasoned with just a sprinkle of Saints let-down from the big Patriots game... that's the recipe for an under-cake. The main danger here is the Redskins' defense finally quitting on the offense that is letting them down so badly.
Mystic Limey forsees: NO 31 - 10 WASH
UNDER 47.5 for 4 units

ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO
This is actually quite a closely-matched game in many statistical categories, Which makes St Louis's likely-underrated status in my secret files very interesting indeed. Having said which, I already have a little buyer's remorse on this bet. Surely the Bears can't screw up another one? More significantly, they've faced a darned tough schedule this season and may not be half as bad as they look. But it's too late now, so "go go go Rams" - !
Mystic Limey forsees: STL 17 - 20 CHI
ST LOUIS +9.5 for 4 units

MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA
I was suspecting Arizona of being an over-rated defense based on their yards-per-point, but closer examination reveals that they deserve genuine respect on the destructive side of the ball. In fact, they look a legit team in general, with the caveat that their schedule has been a little weak so far. Still, do I think they might well beat the Minnesota ice warriors, with desert advantage? Yes - so I'll gladly take the three and a half points.
Mystic Limey forsees: MINN 20 - 27 ARI
ARIZONA +3.5 for 4 units

NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
Once again, I don't like the spread very much here. Miami certainly look capable of giving the Pats all kinds of trouble, but I find it tough to oppose New England in a game they really, really need. However, the total looks interesting. Oddly for a team that runs the ball fantasically and puts together lengthy drives, the Dolphins have gone over the total by an average of more than six points per game. That should correct itself, given that they have a very good defense to go with the run game. These two teams ran the ball 55 times between them in their earlier season meeting, which ended 24-17. I like the under.
Mystic Limey forsees: NE 20 - 16 MIA
UNDER 46 for 4 units

BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY
I've felt all season that Baltimore were unlucky not to have a better record, but it's starting to look like they just lack that extra something to get over the winning line in games. They also have a defense that my confidential numbers suggest is over-rated. Meawhile, Green Bay's defense is becoming very legit-looking as the Dom Capers system gets firmly established. I find it hard not to like a Packers team that needs to keep winning, with home advantage.
Mystic Limey forsees: BAL 17 - 30 GB
GREEN BAY -3.5 for 4 units

[Parligod]

Hey Limey,
GL on the Denver pick, I like the analysis to it and hope it pulls through. Saints/Skins under seems solid too. I think your Rams pick is also good - Rams really have been improving over the season so I expect them to play a tougher game here. AZ/GB I'm also with you on, though I worry about the Ravens at times for the reason you listed above. NE/Miami game would worry me a little - Pats come off losses hitting HARD, and may take their frustration out on Miami. I should note that on 2nd-time meetings between teams, the defenses tend to adjust better, thus resulting in lower-scoring games the 2nd time around (just a statistical fact).

Lastly, the pick on Philly/ATL Over 43.5 is one I prob. wouldnt touch. Both teams have lost offensive weapons - Philly's deep threat D. Jackson is out with concussion, while as you mentioned Matt Ryan is out this game for ATL. Lots of things spell under to me if anything, Philly can stiffle offenses such as ATL and hurt the chances of the over.

Hope my post was at least somewhat understandable, it's now 3am here and I'm finishing my capping for tomorrow. BOL tomorrow I hope you crush! (Inserting smileys cuz I know you love it).

[Limey]

Cheers Parli,

A very good Sunday, overall. My biggest bet (by far) of the season on Denver was rewarded with a blowout. Denver shut Cassell down so efficiently that he got benched in the third quarter with 84 yard to his name. What with New Orleans last week, I seem to be choosing my biggest bets wisely.

St Louis and the Miami 'under' scraped home, balancing missing the Philly 'over' by a whisker. And the night ended well with Arizona covering by a mere 16.5 points.

Good weekend. A Green Bay cover tomorrow would make it a really good weekend. I think that's seven winning weeks in a row, but who's counting ?

[Limey]

Packers do the business, just about, for a big 6-2 weekend for me.

Just thought I'd say a word about my top-secret tool for identifying possibly over and under-rated teams. Of the three teams indicated as over-rated on offense before week 13, two failed to cover. Of the six teams indicated as under-rated - all six covered. The defensive numbers weren't quite as impressive but still well in the positive. I don't make my bets purely (or even mainly) based on this indicator, but it's definitely a factor in my extremely good results since I started using it.