[NJcap]

I've done a little research....im gna go through all the losses these teams had and see why and how they lost.....lets start it up fellas....feel free to chime in with stats/facts and lets come up with a winner guys....


SEATTLE

First loss @ indy...something denver went through as well...not really a read on why they lost..they did give up 109 yards on the ground....key will be stopping the run, if moreno/ball have less then 50-60 yards rushing= huge advantage for hawks.....the blocked fg for a td really screwed them...

Second loss @ sf......again these are usually hard fought games they held them to alot of FGs...if they hold denver to alot of FGs its a plus....however different styles compared to denver so really no comparison...

Third loss home to cardinals.......again same as niners game hard fought defensive slugfest in a FG fest.....


other notables-- the wins vs saints....as we know saints do alot of dink and dunk shit with there passion game....something manning does as well although with much better weapons....but those 3-4 yard out routes that welker and jthomas do won't get much YAC vs hawks....short routes/screens to welker/dthomas won get much yards after catch....key will be the big play factor with the long ball to dthomas and decker....but u have the best secondary in the league...


DENVER

First Loss @ indy....one thing that stood out to me is they only had 64 yards rushing vs a terrible colt run D....they had some bad turnovers that pretty much cost them the game but what i took out of this game is that when the run game wasn't firing on all cylinders they found themselves in a hole....

Second Loss @ NE.....after being handed the ball in the beginning several times in cuz of pat fumbles denver worked short fields to put points up....moreno killed it this game putting up over 200 yards on the ground while they were trying to preserve the lead.....but they pretty much got outplayed the last 3 qtrs of the game....this was just and ugly game with alot of fumbles and TOs in cold weather...something we're likely to see in the superbowl

Third loss vs SD....got pummeled on the ground...lots of TOP for SD by running with mathews...something seattle is very well capable of......pretty much the most significant stat was the TOP....denver only had 9 drives for 21 mins


notables--theyve played 2 good running teams in SD and KC and all 4 games have been close games for the most part....pretty much the only close games all season



Conclusions

You probably already have figured out what team I'm leaning towards by the bias writing lol

Running game/TOP= Seattle

Defense= Seattle

Creates more turnovers= Seattle

Weather advantage= Seattle


these are the reasons I'm leaning seattle.....just the defense and turnovers are enough to control the game and couple it with running game/TOP.....its a pretty lethal mix for denver


====================

Let me know what u think guys...im not set in stone on a pick....have no dog in the fight....i just want a winner

[trobin31]

Good thoughts, and analysis.

things to consider:
Peyton Manning gets rid of the ball faster after the snap count than any QB in the league. This is also the best offense and greatest QB Seattle will have faced all year long, period.

Notice too, the only teams able to beat Denver this year were ultra-familiar with his style of play which is fast paced & quick decisions. Can be very disorienting for defenses initially.

The way Seattle jumps on routes I expect to see turnovers, but, I also expect to see yards after catch go up given Wes Welker and Demarius Thomas' abilities to gain these type of yards.

The biggest factor, regardless of weather, seems to be Russell Wilson! You are going to put your eggs in with a second year QB? Who is also struggling, but these deficiencies are being overlooked thanks to Seattles defense.

Denver' defense is playing as well as any team in the League right now, So, when you add it up, Denver is going to get their 20+ points, but, how will Seattle get theirs?

I would have said a couple of weeks ago that Seattle or San Fran would destroy whoever came out of the AFC, now with Denver's defense peaking at the right time, added to the highest scoring offense of all time, trouble is what this spells for Seattle

I wouldn't pay attention to the fact Denver only scored 27 points the last two games because they went up early each game and just playing to keep the lead, I think everyone is forgetting this! With this being said, we are all familiar with Peyton's propensity to feel the lump in the back of his throat during these Big games! So, wouldn't be surprised if Peyton is pressured early and starts to press, then starts turning the ball over.

outside of multiple turnovers, I don't see how Seattle wins this game.

[Bagman5]

Good job, NJcap. I'm leaning Seattle myself, mostly because I feel as though they've played a significantly more difficult schedule than Denver and I believe that defense and running the football translates in big games, especially in poor weather. However, I do think this Denver's defense is a bit underrated at this point. Knighton can REALLY play and their linebackers aren't all that bad, even without Miller. My hope is to catch the o/u at a higher number in about a week and go under, and I am leaning toward the Seattle money line, as I feel it will close at at least +140, which is a lot of value. Good luck.

[Fred The Hammer]

Nice breakdown!! I lean Denver but I can't really argue anything but possibly time of possession. Matthews ran well in the first 2 SD/Denver games but what really helped them win TOP was Rivers converting 3rd downs which Wilson can't do at that rate. Seattle will prob win the turnover battle but might have to win it by 2+ to win. The weather factor can't be looked past either? Holiday gets some returns instead of Mile High touchbacks every time....he can't be forgotten either. He already housed one vs the Gmen there earlier and had a TD called back vs SD. I see Denver getting alot of def holding calls too....every time I've seen Seattle they're grabbing guys like crazy. 200+ lb corners and 230 safeties can only stay with quick guys like Welker by grabbing them. I went crazy on GB/Pitt SB w/the Pack and that barely won.....nobody should get too confident here in what is most likely a one score game!

[donkbetter]

Harvin is back that dude Sherman is taking all the pressure- thats good for the Hawks I think- Wilson will run and get loose!- 27- 17 I live in downtown Seattle and I am no fan and these fuggers go wild here and it is obnoxious juvenile crap so I am joining rather than fighting them. I lived in Denver in the late 70's what a backwards Broncos only mentality that town had kind of like all places now . Regression of the U.S. masses. Seattle used to be such a great town before al this neanderthal crap ruled.

[Parligod]

Good write-up but don't omit/minimize the Broncos offense - at least put a blurb in your Conclusion section. Broncos averaged 37+ PPG (NFL record), Manning 55 TDs (NFL record) 5477 (?) Passing Yards (NFL record) etc. etc. He also leads the NFL all-time for highest QB rating around 90. Even Tom Brady's is below that, around 85 rating.

TOP stat is skewed also - in regular season part of the TOP factor is that the Broncos scored so fast. In the playoffs this year, the Broncos have been leading TOP including vs. Patriots they had 2 drives exceeding 7 minutes EACH.

I see one of 2 scenarios: Either Broncos will take lead and control TOP or Seattle will create turnovers and do the same. If the Broncos take a lead I would worry about Wilson's ability to shift from game manager to a fast-paced QB making big plays for his team. The last 6-7 games his highest passing yards was 215 and while he holds a respectable QB rating (101 and 100 last 2 seasons) a lot of stats don't get factored against him (intentional grounding calls against him, Sacks, etc). Also one last comparison: 2013 Wilson's TD/Int ratio was 26:9; Manning's was 55:10.

I still give edge to Seahawks.

[DoubleR90]

Definitely some biased writing OP, but some of your points are valid. To balance out your writing here are a few things you missed/didn't cover:

I think you are underestimating the progression of Denver's defense throughout the season, they are certainly not the same defense that played Indy and New England during the regular season. I also think you are undervaluing how potent Denver's offense is and how quickly they can strike regardless of the defense they are facing. All it takes is one blown coverage by Seattle's secondary and Denver is already in field goal range.

Denver's strongest defensive spot is actually their run D. It ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. Aside from Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has very average to weak offensive production and I'm not sure if Russell Wilson is going to be able to capitalize on the weakest part of Denver's defense which is their secondary.

There is still a lot of capping to do before I lock in a bet imo, but remember the moment you start to get biased in your capping process is the moment you overlook something critical to making the right pick.

[NJcap]

Definitely some biased writing OP, but some of your points are valid. To balance out your writing here are a few things you missed/didn't cover

thats what I'm saying lol when u like a side from the get go u automatically start deceiving urself into thinking that is the right play....reason i post it is to get others input


as far as ur points....they are very valid....thats the reason i haven't locked in my seattle bet....if denver does stop the run...seahawks would be in a load of trouble cuz like u said wilson is solid and serviceable but coming back from behind in a pass every down type situation would be bad...

a key question is denvers defense.....its so hard to tell whether its actually a solid bend but don't break defense or whether its the bad competition they've been playing...and like another poster said they've been blowing teams out so TOP and defensive play calling is very hard to judge.....thats why i looked at the games that each team lost or was close......idk i still haven't locked anything in yet either

[freakydave]

Definitely some biased writing OP, but some of your points are valid. To balance out your writing here are a few things you missed/didn't cover:

I think you are underestimating the progression of Denver's defense throughout the season, they are certainly not the same defense that played Indy and New England during the regular season. I also think you are undervaluing how potent Denver's offense is and how quickly they can strike regardless of the defense they are facing. All it takes is one blown coverage by Seattle's secondary and Denver is already in field goal range.

Denver's strongest defensive spot is actually their run D. It ranked 7th in the league during the regular season. Aside from Marshawn Lynch, Seattle has very average to weak offensive production and I'm not sure if Russell Wilson is going to be able to capitalize on the weakest part of Denver's defense which is their secondary.

There is still a lot of capping to do before I lock in a bet imo, but remember the moment you start to get biased in your capping process is the moment you overlook something critical to making the right pick.

I've read a couple of your posts where you talk about the key to the game being which unit sea off or denvers' D rise to the challenge-here's why I think it's Seattle- they've already run the ball well vs a team with a much better run D than Denver(SF49ers) & when Denver faced SD Mathews was playing sprained ankle w/o Mathews SD struggled to run the ball --is there any reason why Wilson should struggle vs that weak pass D of Denver?

[PAULYPOKER]

In depth analysis's are never a good capping tool......

This one will be no different.....

[herts9]

^^this. in watching both conference championships last weekend, the Denver team that played beats the Seattle team that played, 31-17. I won't overthink it any further.

[Capper1124]

Very nice info there. GL on the Super Bowl