1. #1
    Parligod
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    Epic Teaser This Weekend

    I hate using the word "lock" because in football there's no such thing. However I think this is about the closest you can get to a lock this weekend on a 4-Team-Teaser:

    Teased 13 Points @-120:
    1. SF/Seattle UNDER 53 - losing this leg means a score like 30-24 which there is NO CHANCE of happening: these are the 1st and 5th ranked defenses in the league and often utilize clock management on every play (SF ranked 2nd to last in snaps per game last season because they drain clock on every play - given the 12th man they will need every second to set up each play). Both teams also rank 1st and 2nd in toxic differential (making/preventing big plays of 20+ yards - you will see few big plays this game).

    2. Denver/New England OVER 44 - sucks that line has been moving but even at 44 they will easily cover. Many cappers believe Over 55 is the best pick of the weekend. Some significant facts: (1) Last meeting was 60+ total points; (2) Denver ranked 1st in 2013 for red-zone success at over 80%; (3) Denver averaged over 37PPG and 600+ total points scored (616?) last season for an NFL record; (4) Patriots put up 44ish points last weekend and also has an extremely high red zone success rate. Even if final score is 24-20 (highly unlikely), it's a tie and you don't lose.

    3. Patriots +17 - This is a beautiful number because it basically means that to lose this leg they would likely have to lose by 20 points (18-19 point wins are extremely rare). Getting spotted that many points to take the Pats is a no brainer. As Manning showed last game, if they take a solid lead they'll play clock management and I like Brady's offense much more than Rivers who kept the game within a touchdown last week.

    4. Denver +9 - Similar logic to above and I think the game stays close. Broncos are big favorites to win in Denver this weekend. Last meeting in NE the Broncos blew a 24-point lead in New England to lose by 3. No chance that happens this time as I expect a much closer game throughout each quarter. Even if Patriots win I seriously doubt they can manhandle the Broncos for 10 points in Denver. Last meeting Gronk was in for NE and is out this time around; also Thomas was out for last meeting and is in for the Broncos. Out of the 4 legs this is probably the biggest sweat which speaks a lot to how strong the teaser is.

    Final note: I considered taking SF +16 as well because a score like 30-14 would still be a wash but a score like 24-7 scares me even though it's highly unlikely. I don't like the past 2 games that SF played in Seattle when they got crushed (last year lost 29-3 in reg. season) most likely this will be a very close game.

    BoL whatever your picks are this weekend everyone.
    Last edited by Parligod; 01-19-14 at 02:12 AM.
    Points Awarded:

    ZIPPER HEAD gave Parligod 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  2. #2
    kevin101
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    Uh...........?????

    How the FUK do you tease BOTH teams(spread) that are playing each other???

    Denver+9 and New England+17...

  3. #3
    Parligod
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    Quote Originally Posted by kevin101 View Post
    Uh...........?????

    How the FUK do you tease BOTH teams(spread) that are playing each other???

    Denver+9 and New England+17...
    If the game ends up even relatively close then both win. That's a wide range of 26 points.

  4. #4
    trobin31
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    Looks good, GL. My we dine on the fresh carcusses of the bookies.

  5. #5
    kevin101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Parligod View Post
    If the game ends up even relatively close then both win. That's a wide range of 26 points.
    Oh weird. I knew that but I didin't know you can tease both sides of a game. Like I didin't know you can you can Tease Denver and New England in the same teaser.

  6. #6
    DOM-Ganador
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    With 13 points, think you would have been better off picking a side in SEA, or better yet, leaving an open spot for a nice SB bet.

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